Brunei now in world’s most competitive economy index

Darren Chin
BANDAR SERI BEGAWAN

BRUNEI is now included in the world’s most competitive economy index as reported by the Geneva-based World Economic Forum yesterday.

The 2016-2017 Global Competitiveness Report has put the sultanate at 58th place.

Several ASEAN countries were also included in the global list, such as Singapore which placed second and Malaysia at 25th place. Switzerland is considered the world’s most competitive economy.

In a statement, the Energy and Industry Department at the Prime Minister’s Office (EIDPMO) said that this marks the country’s first ever entry into the benchmark index that rates the competitiveness of world economies.

“The report, widely recognised as the world’s leading assessment of competitiveness, highlighted that the top three most problematic factors for doing business in Brunei Darussalam were inefficient government bureaucracy, (lack of) access to financing and restrictive labour regulations,” said EIDPMO.

“This ranking comes at a time of significant focus by His Majesty’s Government to improve its business environment following the global drop in oil prices which hurt the economy. Diversification efforts have since intensified to ensure the economy’s sustainability, recognising that inefficiencies in the civil service need to be addressed to increase competitiveness and drive progress,” said EIDPMO.

EIDPMO said that it had carried out several reforms in the past year as part of its efforts to establish a pro-business environment including setting up the Business Support Centre, introducing the Collateral Registry System to help facilitate financing and reviewing the labour policy which is due for completion next month.

“The Ease of Doing Business Steering Committee is actively driving business reform to streamline inefficient government processes, ensure a competitive cost of doing business and that regulation is aligned with international best practice to address the top three identified barriers to business,” said EIDPMO.

“Improving the business environment and Brunei’s global competitiveness is a key priority of His Majesty’s Government to ensure that Brunei can sustain its growth towards achieving Wawasan 2035,” said EIDPMO.

EIDPMO had earlier carried out a study on its global competitiveness involving companies in Brunei from various industries in collaboration with Universiti Brunei Darussalam between March and May this year in preparation for this year’s report.

The annual index gives ratings on 12 factors of the economy to decide a final average rating for Brunei of 4.3 out of 7.

The index cited Brunei’s health and primary education as its best attribute with a 6.3 rating while unsurprisingly, market size was its most prominent drawback with a 2.7 rating given.

The ASEAN region generally fared worse compared with last year, with only Brunei and Singapore not falling down the ranks in this year’s ranking of 138 countries.

Laos and Myanmar were not included in this year’s index.

The podium places of the index remain unchanged from the previous year with Switzerland, Singapore and United States maintaining their places at the top, respectively.

The Executive Chairman of World Economic Forum Klaus Schwab said in the report that declining openness in the global economy is harming competitiveness and making it harder for leaders to drive sustainable and inclusive growth.

The annual report is compiled based on opinions from business leaders on issues ranging from the state of an economy’s institutions to the country’s health and educational infrastructure.


Sumber - The Brunei Times

HM questions healthcare services

His Majesty speaks with an elderly patient during an impromptu visit to Raja Isteri Pengiran Anak Saleha (RIPAS) Hospital

Nabilah Haris
BANDAR SERI BEGAWAN

HIS Majesty Sultan Haji Hassanal Bolkiah Mu’izzaddin Waddaulah, the Sultan and Yang Di-Pertuan of Brunei Darussalam, yesterday questioned the Ministry of Health’s (MoH) delivery of healthcare services after learning about complaints from the public.

In his titah during an impromptu visit to Raja Isteri Pengiran Anak Saleha (RIPAS) Hospital, the monarch said members of the public had raised concerns on the quality of healthcare services provided by MoH and the hospital, including the waiting time to see a doctor at the Accident and Emergency Department.

“What does emergency mean? Try to truly understand what is meant by emergency. There should be no issues of waiting a long time for doctors at the emergency section,” the Sultan said.

He added, “The same goes for patients admitted to the ward but are forced to stay for a night or more to be checked by a doctor. Is this considered good healthcare customer service?”

His Majesty said people in healthcare services must remember that patients are in pain, and that it is their responsibility to alleviate the pain and not place a heavier burden on them.

He added that a nurse who is rude is enough to add more burden on the patient.

This also include administration staff and doctors who do not show enough care to patients, to the point that patients’ emotions are affected and may result in more serious health problems, His Majesty said. “It is evident that healthcare customer service is important, especially in the way one speaks and acts,” he added.

Medical practices

The Sultan also expressed his concerns on promises some doctors had made to patients and their families on the former’s recovery chances. “Many have said that there are medical officers who can easily give hope of (survival rates) as high as 80 and 90 per cent.

“After hearing about the survival rates, patients and families did not take too long to decide and chose to proceed with surgery but once the surgery is over and the patient’s development is not encouraging, it is disappointing as the patient falls unconscious and eventually passes away,” said His Majesty.

The monarch called for stern action on such medical officers to prevent such practices from happening again. “This is not an isolated incident, many families had said they have lost a child, or their husband or other family members who were swayed by the promises,” he added.

His Majesty also urged doctors to give more medical advice instead of solely prescribing medicines. “In my opinion, a great doctor is not only good at prescribing medicines, but do not mind imparting advice as that advice is sometimes more needed apart from the medicine. It is an important step towards realising the Ministry of Health’s Vision 2035,” said the king.

Zika virus prevention

His Majesty also called for a more proactive approach in addressing Zika beyond issuing advisories, noting that countries close to Brunei have recorded cases of the mosquito-borne virus.

“They are worried, and by right we should also be worried since we are so close.

“There are no stern warnings or action being taken. We have only been adivising the public not to be worried despite the rising number of cases in neighbouring countries,” added His Majesty.

The Sultan said public adviso-ries were made, but more action should be taken, such as ensuring the country’s cleanliness to prevent mosquitoes from breeding.

“Maybe we would like to blame it on members of the public who may be reluctant to maintain cleanliness. If there is any truth to this, I want to know what is being done to address this. Are any actions being taken?

“Are there any rules or acts to cure this illness? If there are any, what is being done to discipline the public? I want a response from the relevant parties,” added the monarch.

Achieving Vision 2035

His Majesty commended the Ministry of Health’s efforts in formulating the Vision 2035 strategy that carries the motto, ‘Together Towards A Healthy Nation’.

He said what has been written is excellent, but how it translates into action is important. “What we want to see is its implementation. It is not enough to be amazing on paper but it must become a reality that can be enjoyed by everyone.

“One of its main targets is good customer service. It is good in its language and no one can deny that but can it be done? If yes, then Alhamdulillah. This is what we want, which is not only have it written on paper but to carry it out,” added the Sultan.

His Majesty inspected the hospital’s facilities for about three hours during the impromptu visit.

He toured the Women and Children’s Block, Specialists’ building, Medical Storage, Emergency Department, Cardiac Centre, Sports Complex, the Acute Medical Unit, and RIPAS Hospital library.

The Sultan also took time to talk with doctors, nurses, patients and their families to better understand the hospital’s quality of healthcare services.


Sumber - The Brunei Times

Life in Brunei under hudud

Customers can only buy takeout food during the fasting time

Brunei Darussalam is the first Asian country to have implemented the highly controversial hudud law. The lives of Bruneians have to be adjusted to fit into the lifestyle of the majority Muslims.

Since PAS has first voiced out its intention of implementing the hudud law, Malaysians have grown curious to the possible influences of the hudud law. Many might wonder how average Bruneians lead their day-to-day lives two years into hudud implementation.

Sin Chew Daily recently crossed the border to take a peep into what life is like under hudud.

No eating in public during fasting

Malaysia is a secular country with Islam as the official religion. However, the Constitution has provided equal treatment for all citizens of different races and religions. As such, before a new policy is implemented in the country, the government will have to take into consideration the needs and feelings of Malaysians from different ethnic backgrounds in order to ensure the rights of all Malaysians are protected.

But things are not quite the same for our neighbor Brunei, which began implementing the Islamic law in stages from 2014. Despite powerful backlash from the international community, in particular the Western media, the Brunei government has been insistent in implementing the hudud. As if that is not enough, the hudud enforcement covers a very broad aspect and has made its way into the day-to-day lives of even the non-Muslims in that country.

Non-Muslims' right to eat freely during the Muslim fasting month is no longer protected in Brunei. Enforcement personnel have been dispatched to arrest local residents and even tourists found eating in public during the fasting hours.

Eating and smoking at all eateries, including restaurants, coffee shops and food stalls, is strictly prohibited and the offender can be fined up to B$4,000, or jailed not more than a year, or both.

However, we were informed by a local resident that the fine for eating in public during fasting hours is normally B$300 only.

Ramadan could be a very inconvenient time for non-Muslims, especially foreign tourists. The moment you wake up, it's already fasting time and you can only buy takeout food to eat inside the hotel room.

Even with the sultry heat in the capital Bandar Seri Begawan, we could only hide ourselves in the toilet to get a few good sips of water. This is what many non-Muslims in the country have done if they can't resist the heat and thirst. Anyone caught drinking in public could be grilled on social media as well as in the court.

Only takeout

Other than ordinary citizens, businesses also feel the pinch with restaurants taking the brunt of the temporal food ban. A restaurant owner told us her business plunged by 80% during the Ramadan.

Customers are not allowed to eat inside the restaurant during the fasting hours but food can be bought and taken out.

"Our business drops 80% this Ramadan, much worse than last year."

She said tourists were still not aware of the new ruling last year and continued to come to the country for holidays, but this year, many have opted to stay away due to the strict enforcement.

We talked to several other people in town and were told, "Dine-in is not allowed but you can take out food.

"Many people have been summoned. People will take a picture of you eating and then report you."

Brunei has ruled that every Friday afternoon during and before the Muslim praying time, all government departments, agencies and shops have to close for business between 12.00p.m. and 2.00p.m.

We rushed to a local Chinese restaurant to pack our lunch before the closing time, and were shocked to see a few customers eating inside.

Some of the shops in town have taken the risk of opening their restaurants to dine-in customers in order to keep their business.

The shop we visited is an air-conditioned establishment selling pork dishes. The glass door is very heavily tinted and the lighting inside is remarkably dimmed looking from the street.

"Dine-in is allowed? Can we eat in, too?"

The shop assistant said Ok but we had to sit at a specific corner of the restaurant which we later discovered was a blind spot that cannot be clearly seen from outside.

Moreover, the shop is selling non-halal Chinese food and local Muslims will normally stay away from it.


Sumber - MYsinchew.com

Saudi King Cuts Once Untouchable Wage Bill to Save Money

by Glen Carey, Vivian Nereim

Saudi Arabia canceled bonus payments for state employees and cut ministers’ salaries by 20 percent, steps that further spread the burden of shoring up public finances to a population accustomed to years of government largesse.

Stocks tumbled the most in eight months after the government decided to suspend wage increases for the lunar year starting next month and curbed allowances for public-sector employees, according to royal decrees and a cabinet statement. The salaries of members of a legislative body that advises the monarchy were cut by 15 percent.

By curbing what many Saudis had for years taken for granted, the government is signaling a determination to reduce the highest budget deficit among the world’s 20 biggest economies amid low oil prices and a lingering war in neighboring Yemen. The measures, however, risk deepening the kingdom’s economic slowdown by damaging consumer confidence.

Psychological Impact

While the government needed to save money, canceling bonuses may affect Saudis “psychologically,” according to Saleh Al Qarni, a government school teacher who also works as a driver to earn extra cash.

“For me as a teacher, it might affect me in school, honestly,” he said as he drove through the crowded streets of the capital, Riyadh on Monday evening.

Under Deputy Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, the world’s biggest oil exporter has already delayed payments owed to contractors and started cutting fuel subsidies as it tries to manage lower oil prices. The budget deficit may narrow to 13 percent of gross domestic product this year and below 10 percent in 2017, according to International Monetary Fund estimates.

Past governments have spent billions of dollars on state wage increases, making private-sector jobs less attractive for Saudis. The money, though, fueled a surge in non-oil economic growth, which averaged 6.5 percent between 2000 and 2012, according to IMF data.

“Spending on wages soared as oil prices boomed,” said Simon Williams, HSBC Holdings Plc’s London-based chief economist for Central and Eastern Europe, the Middle East and North Africa. With the deficit set to run above 10 percent of GDP for a second year in succession, “that era is over; wage spending has to be cut.”

Wage Bill

The decisions are part of a plan spearheaded by Prince Mohammed, the king’s son and second-in-line to the throne of the biggest Arab economy. Under his so-called Vision 2030 plan, the government seeks to reduce the public-sector wage bill to 40 percent of spending by 2020, from 45 percent today. Public debt is seen climbing to 30 percent of economic output from 7.7 percent currently.

Perks for senior officials were also scaled back. The government stopped providing cars to senior state officials for their next financial year and announced that ministers will pay fees for their fixed and mobile phones at the start of the next Islamic year.

The benchmark Tadawul All Share Index dropped 3.8 percent at the close in Riyadh, the most since Jan. 20.

Bond Sale

The announcements made no mention of how much the cuts would save. Saudi Arabia was weighing plans to cancel more than $20 billion of projects and slash ministry budgets by a quarter to repair its finances, people familiar with the matter said earlier this month. The kingdom also plans to tap international bond markets in a sale that could raise more than $10 billion, according to people aware of the plans.

“The ministers’ wage cut is symbolic in nature, but overall it demonstrates to the world -- because this is prior to the bond issuance program -- that Saudi Arabia is quite serious to tackle things that were once quite taboo issues,” said John Sfakianakis, director of economic research at the Gulf Research Center.

The measures are signaling “that the public sector will not be the first and last employer so people cannot resort to the public sector as before,” he said. “They’re telling people that the incentive to go there is going to be reduced, so that’s important as well.”

IMF Recommendations

The IMF recommended in 2015 that Saudi Arabia control its growing wage bill and make changes to government to subsidies for fuel and electricity. In an interview with Bloomberg this year, Prince Mohammed said the government planned to accelerate subsidy cuts and impose more levies to spread the burden of lower oil prices. The measure aimed to raise an extra $100 billion a year by 2020 in non-oil revenue.

Lower oil prices and government austerity measures have started to impact the economy. Growth is forecast to slow to 1.1 percent this year, the lowest level since 2009, according to a Bloomberg survey. Consumer spending has been hit by government’s efforts to lower the deficit.

Paul Sullivan, an adjunct professor of security studies at Georgetown University in Washington, said that while the decisions may prompt some Saudis to move to the private sector, he doesn’t “expect an exodus out of higher paying solid government jobs to riskier, lower paying private-sector jobs.”


Sumber - Bloomberg

How Deadly Is ASEAN’s Killer Haze?

A recent study has prompted controversy and calls for action.

By Prashanth Parameswaran

A new study released Monday claims that the haze outbreak in Southeast Asia last year may have caused more than 100,000 deaths.

The haze is an annual problem in Southeast Asia, with forest fires in Indonesia causing a haze to blanket the sub-region for months. But last year’s fires were the worst recorded since 1997.

Now, a new study published in the journal Environment Research Letters has provided estimates as to the casualties from last year’s haze.

Researchers from Harvard and Columbia universities estimate that exposure from pollution from last year’s fires killed 91,600 people in Indonesia, 6,500 in Malaysia, and 2,200 in Singapore in 2015 and 2016.

All three governments mentioned in the study have been quick to challenge its findings. Mohamad Subuh, the director general of disease prevention and control at Indonesia’s health ministry, said the research “makes no sense at all,” with Indonesian government records indicating only 19 deaths related to forest fires in 2015, and 500,000 suffering minor health problems.

“Data on deaths is clear. We have surveillance,” Subuh told Reuters, adding that the assumptions of mortality based on mathematical calculations were “irresponsible.”

Singapore’s health ministry (MOH) also registered its own concerns, with a spokesperson saying that the death figure for Singapore was “not reflective of the actual situation.”

According to Channel NewsAsia, the spokesperson added that such modelling studies are based on “various assumptions” that influence the accuracy of their estimates, and that this study did not take into account mitigating measures implemented by countries affected by the haze.

Furthermore, the MOH also added that the age-standardized death rate in Singapore had actually declined in 2015 (3.2) relative to 2014 (3.3) and 2013 (3.4).

Malaysia’s deputy health director-general, S. Jeyaindran, maintained that Malaysia had no deaths last year directly related to the haze. He added that the Health Ministry had conducted a study on the haze effects on the human body and found that no grave health risks were likely.

Environmental advocates, meanwhile, have pointed out that though study is a useful wake up call, it may actually be understating the true health impact of the haze due to the specifics of its methodology.

The study itself points out that it only focuses on deaths, rather than illnesses, on adults only, and on dangerous fine particulate matter known as PM 2.5 rather than other hazardous pollutants as well.


Sumber - The Diplomat

Brunei Darussalam looks to sustain agricultural growth

Rising productivity and higher output from the processing segment is keeping Brunei Darussalam’s agriculture sector on track to meet the government’s medium- and long-term goals.

Strong performance in most areas of the agriculture and agri-foods sector saw the industry’s revenue rise by 6.8% year-on-year (y-o-y) in the first quarter of the year to reach BN$97.1m ($71.2m), according to data issued by the Department of Agriculture and Agri-food (DAA) in late July. This came despite dry weather conditions, which impacted the production of rice, vegetables and cut flowers.

Growth was supported in large part by double-digit growth in the livestock and processed agricultural products segments. Livestock output was up 14.1% y-o-y at BN$6.9m ($5.1m), while processed agricultural goods expanded by 16.9% over the same period, bringing the agri-food segment’s earnings to BN$28m ($20.5m).

By contrast, the broader economy expanded by 3.6% y-o-y in the first three months of the year, the Autoriti Monetari Brunei Darussalam reported at the end of July.

Long-term plan for value-added growth

In its long-term development plan, Wawasan Brunei 2035, the government has set a target of boosting agricultural output to BN$1bn (733.3m) by 2020 and BN$3.9bn ($2.9bn) by 2035 – almost 11 times the sector’s contribution to GDP last year.

While ambitious, the last five years have already seen significant progress in agricultural development. Gross agricultural output increased from BN$230m ($168.6m) in 2010 to BN$366m ($268.4m) last year.

Future growth is expected to be fuelled by a combination of improved technology, higher levels of foreign direct investment in the sector, the use of high-yield crop varieties and the expansion of the downstream value-added component.

Boosting value addition should take on greater importance in the coming years if Brunei Darussalam it to reach its ambitious agricultural targets. With relatively limited land available for agricultural purposes, and the increasing encroachment of built-up areas into farming districts, the Sultanate will have to create more value from the land it has.

The whole country is approximately 577,000 ha in size, with only 7193 ha in use for agriculture as of 2013, according to the most recent figures from the DAA.

Halal niche

A key avenue for bringing in investment and increasing value addition in agricultural production is the Sultanate’s burgeoning halal segment, which feeds into the growing focus on processed foods.

In March of last year Brunei Darussalam invited investors from countries such as China and the UK to take part in a $300m halal industry park, known as the Bio-Innovation Corridor, located north-west of the capital Bandar Seri Begawan.

Led by the Ministry of Industry and Primary Resources, the 500-ha park aims to transform Brunei Darussalam into a regionally and internationally recognised destination for halal industries.

The worldwide halal food market is worth an estimated $1.1trn, according to a study by Thomson Reuters, and is considered one of the fastest food segments in the world.

Growing youth

While specialisation in value-added niches such as halal could go some way towards achieving the government’s goals, a dwindling workforce in rural areas presents something of a challenge.

According to the most recent Labour Force Survey conducted by the Department of Economic Planning and Development, out of a population of 411,900, and a total labour force of 203,600, the percentage working in the agriculture, forestry and fisheries sector was around 0.6% in 2014.

As young Bruneians increasingly opt for professions in urban centres, the ageing of the rural workforce also presents productivity challenges, according to Suria Zanuddin, the head of the agricultural extension division at the Ministry of Primary Resources and Tourism.

“We try to involve and recruit young farmers as most of our current farmers are now ageing,” she told local media at the end of May.

The government is stepping up efforts to reverse the flow of young Bruneians into urban centres by expanding educational programmes and promoting the business opportunities of the agriculture sector through training courses.

At the Rice Farmer Field School, for example, close to 300 paddy farmers have been trained since the programme was founded in 2010.

While the expected increase in technology in the agriculture industry could help ease some of the workforce requirements, primary production is likely to remain a labour-intensive industry, meaning that government efforts to promote farming as an attractive and viable career path will be crucial to developing both food security and the broader sustainability of the sector.


Sumber - Oxford Business Group

Belait’s property market unravels under oil & gas downturn

Workers laying cement into the foundation of new private housing near Sentral Shopping Centre in Kuala Belait

Aaron Wong
BELAIT

BELAIT’S real estate market is reeling from the downturn in oil prices as the departure of hundreds of expatriate families has left property owners struggling to fill blocks of apartments developed during the last oil price boom.

The district’s property market has long been distinct from the rest of the country, with rental rates in 2013 almost double those seen in the capital for similarly sized and furnished properties.

Today rentals, on average, stand just 10 to 20 per cent more than Brunei-Muara properties, and even selling prices, which have shown a greater resistance to the downturn, are no longer twice the cost.

The premium rentals and a proportionately higher number of apartments that have come to define the district’s property market can be narrowed down to three compounding factors, according to real estate agents.

Privately owned land is scarce along the district’s coastal mukims of Liang, Seria and Kuala Belait owing to large chunks of land allocated specifically for the oil and gas industry. Land scarcity means that coastal Belait’s potential for the supply of property is inherently lower, leading to the development of high rises and apartments.

Demand for rented properties has traditionally been strong, driven singularly by expatriates arriving in the country to service the oil and gas industry.

But ultimately, what has driven developers to rapidly build and sent buyers in droves to invest are company budgets for housing allowance that set aside $3,000 per month and above for each executive level staff.

“Three years ago, when oil prices were (hovering above $100 a barrel), people were rushing to Belait to build and buy land,” said Amanda Yang, who set up the sole Belait-based real estate agency HomeCity Property and Management in 2013.

“Clients would be lining up at the hotels, finding a place to stay; there wasn’t that much rented property available in KB at the time.

“So wherever property began to be developed, it would begin selling like hot cakes. Investors and members of the public bought. They knew the rental (they could charge) was very good. It was a situation of overdemand and lesser supply.”

The experience of developer Henry Ling Teem Hock, who completed a three-storey apartment in early 2015 along Jalan Maulana in KB, sums up the demand of yesteryear.

“We sold out all 16 units we targeted in two days,” he said. “And construction had barely begun.”

Jalan Maulana, a coastal stretch of road overlooking the South China Sea that directly leads to Brunei Shell Petroleum’s headquarters in Panaga, is home to several blocks of premium apartments aimed at wealthy expatriates.

A fully-furnished three-bedroom unit over 1,100 square feet would fetch a rent of $3,000 to $4,500 per month a few years ago but has now dropped to a range of $2,000 to $3,000.

The model that enticed property companies and the purchasing public was fairly straightforward and the potential for return on investment lucrative. A two- or three-bedroom apartment in the region of $350,000 could fetch a monthly rent of close to $3,000 if its outfitting and furnishing were upscale.

This meant investors could repay the cost in just 10 to 20 years and still have 70 to 80 years left on their lease — a promising proposition, but one that rested delicately on rental rates remaining high and tenancy a guarantee.

As oil prices took a nosedive towards the end of 2015, the situation began to unravel. Based on the number of vacated units since the downturn, real estate agents estimate that at least 400 expatriate families have left the district.

“Ninety-eight per cent of rented property in Brunei is by expatriates,” said a real agent estate who asked to remain anonymous. “And within Belait, those expatriates arrive (to work for the oil gas industry).”

At this juncture, it’s easy to point out that any upward trend in oil prices will bring stability to the property market. But since real estate agents point out that locals generally don’t rent, it’s the number of arriving expatriates in the future that will determine the fate of the rental market.

“Now the focus is to localise the workforce (especially in the oil and gas industry). If oil prices rise again but there are less expatriates arriving, the (downward) situation in rentals will remain the same,” said another real estate agent.

Still, debating the future demand for Belait’s rented properties only tells half the story. The other half is coming to grips with what will happen should the number of expatriates surge, only this time to arrive to a glut of housing options.

One way of understanding just how saturated Belait’s housing market has become is to seek out anecdotes of property owners who claim that rentals and tenancy were still better off during the oil crisis of 1999 to 2000, where prices dropped to US$10 a barrel.

Another way is to quickly survey options for purchasing housing still under construction, where one will be spoilt for choice. The sellout of high rises before completion is no longer a foregone conclusion.

But there are exceptions. Construction of residential property has spurred in a radius near Sentral Shopping Centre, the district’s first one-stop shopping mall, since it opened at the beginning of 2015.

The mall’s 18 serviced apartments under the Garden Sentral Hotel, which opened in April last year, were also fully occupied by long-term guests until recently.

The strong performance prompted KBSentral’s General Manager, Abby Lim, to extend the serviced apartment concept to two rows of terrace housing next to the mall.

Still, the wider situation in the district remains critical, especially for members of the public who were banking on tenants to rent out apartments and houses they had taken mortgages to buy.

“We (my family) bought an apartment in KB as an investment, hoping to make the money back within 20 years,” said an owner who asked not to be named.

“But we’ve been struggling to find tenants, so we repay the loan every month without rent coming in.

“It’s a difficult situation. If I can’t find a tenant in the coming months, I’ll have to cut my losses and try to sell the place.”


Sumber - The Brunei Times

South China Sea dispute: Will Indonesia play a bigger role in Asean?

An Indonesian navy vessel (foreground) next to a Chinese Coast Guard vessel near
the Natuna Islands. Indonesia is the only Asean country that China has refrained
from dispute-escalation with in the South China Sea.

By Johannes Nugroho

The late British Prime Minister Margaret Thatcher once defined consensus as “something in which no one believes and to which no one objects”.

That would describe the approach of the Association of South-east Asian Nations (Asean), at its recent Summit in Laos, when it comes to the South China Sea territorial disputes.

Although the adoption of the Code for Unplanned Encounters at Sea (Cues) in the South China Sea may signal that Asean and China have taken initial steps to build trust and confidence amid growing tensions, it is unlikely to work wonders.

China did not accept an international tribunal ruling on its claims in the South China Sea based on a legally binding convention such as the 1982 United Nations Convention on Law of the Sea, to which it is a signatory.

Why would it care about a non-binding agreement such as Cues?

The question remains whether Asean can maintain credibility if it fails to resolve a major flashpoint in its own backyard.

Logic dictates that Asean must somehow enact a more coherent set of working methods and understanding, both internally for its own members and externally to deal with China and other non-Asean parties.

To do so, Indonesia’s leadership is paramount. As a founding member of Asean and its traditional status as “first among equals”, Indonesia is well-placed to set the tone for the other member states.

Apart from its size, Indonesia is the only Asean country that China has refrained from dispute-escalation with in the South China Sea.

Chinese Coast Guard vessels did not hesitate to ram Vietnamese boats in 2014 in the standoff between both sides over China’s deployment of an oil-drilling rig in waters near Vietnam’s coast. China’s aggression towards the Philippines in the Spratly Islands is also well-documented.

In contrast, no retaliatory action was taken by China in the aftermath of the June incursion by a fleet of Chinese vessels into the Natuna Sea, to which the Indonesian navy responded by firing at and apprehending one vessel.

To defend its sovereignty over the Natuna Sea vis-a-vis a superior power such as China, Indonesia will need the collective strength of Asean and other like-minded member states.

Some may argue that getting Indonesia to play a bigger role in Asean on the South China Sea issue may not be easy.

The country’s engagement with Asean has waned since the fall of President Suharto in 1998. Increasing complexity in domestic populist politics and budgetary constraints in the Indonesian Ministry of Foreign Affairs have all produced a more inward-looking country with a less confident footing in regional geopolitics. To date, no ministerial blueprint on the South China Sea issue exists.

The election of the domestically popular President Joko Widodo has prompted very little change. Early in his presidency, Mr Widodo showed little interest in Asean diplomacy. Under his sink-the-boat policy for captured illegal foreign fishing vessels, the vessels originating from Asean countries such as Vietnam and Thailand bore the brunt first. The Indonesian government only destroyed its first Chinese vessel in 2015. Interestingly, the vessel in question had already been impounded in 2009.

But there are signs that things could be changing.

First, while China has repeatedly affirmed Indonesia’s claim to the Natuna Islands, it has argued that the overlapping waters are “China’s historical fishing ground”.

So when three incursions by Chinese fishing vessels occurred in the Natuna Sea this year — all supported and escorted by Chinese Coast Guard units — Jakarta must have realised that its avowed status as a “non-party” and an “honest broker” in the South China Sea disputes was no longer tenable.

Jakarta has since replaced its coast guard around the Natunas with naval ships and announced plans for a military buildup and economic development in the area, as outlined in its 2016 State Defence Paper and maritime policy.

Mr Widodo is now also more cognisant of Asean’s centrality to Indonesia’s diplomatic efforts. His active participation at the recent Asean Summit — where he called for Asean unity — may signal a change of heart. Mr Widodo also discussed the South China Sea issue with both Malaysian Prime Minister Najib Razak and Philippine President Rodrigo Duterte during their recent visits to Jakarta.

Faced with China’s unprecedented challenge in the Natuna Sea, Mr Widodo will need all the help he can muster, including insights from his fellow Asean leaders from the Philippines and Vietnam, which face similar territorial disputes with China, as well as from Singapore, which has significant economic and cultural ties with Beijing and is the country coordinator for Asean-China ties.

The Philippines, set to take the Asean chair next year, should welcome and support Indonesia’s increased regional engagement. President Widodo told the Indonesian press that he and President Duterte have a lot in common.

The fact that the subsequent misunderstanding over what the latter told the former about the fate of the Filipina on death row in Indonesia, Mary Jane Veloso, was quickly smoothed out points to a workable relationship between the two.

China’s growing assertiveness in the South China Sea has proved to be one of the most polarising issues that Asean has faced in recent years, testing its core function as the regional forum for conflict resolution.

It is important that Indonesia pulls its weight within Asean to prevent the association’s plunge into irrelevance.

Vietnam’s unease at the situation is already palpable. At a recent lecture in Singapore, Vietnamese President Tran Dai Quang spoke against the “‘might makes right’ mindset”, clearly with China in mind.

Bearing in mind that Vietnam is already looking beyond Asean in its security stratagem, such as forging closer defence ties with India through their collaboration on the BrahMos missile system, the urgency of Asean unity is beyond doubt.

Let us hope that Indonesia, working alongside the other founding members, could pave the way to a consensus that everyone can work with and that no one objects to.


Sumber - TODAYonline

Annan's commission faces Rohingya conundrum

Former UN secretary general Kofi Annan and Myanmar's leader Aung San Suu Kyi
talk during their meeting in Yangon on Monday

Nehginpao Kipgen

In an attempt to find a sustainable solution to the complicated issues between Muslims and Buddhists in Myanmar's Rakhine state, former UN secretary-general Kofi Annan is visiting the Southeast Asian country this week.

Mr Annan, who is scheduled to visit Rakhine state today and tomorrow, is head of the nine-member State Advisory Commission formed last month by the Myanmar government. Mr Annan was the UN secretary-general from 1997-2001.

The other international members of the commission are Ghassan Salame, a scholar from Lebanon and former adviser to Mr Annan, and Laetitia van den Assum, a diplomat from the Netherlands and a former adviser to the UN Programme on HIV and AIDS. The other six members are Myanmar nationals, with two Rakhine Buddhist members, two Muslim members and two government representatives.

The commission has been tasked with finding conflict-prevention measures, ensuring humanitarian assistance, rights and reconciliation, establishing basic infrastructure, and promoting development long-term plans in the restive state. It has been given a year to conduct research and submit its findings.

The commission was formed due to the protracted and lingering tensions between the Buddhists and Muslims (mostly Rohingya) in the wake of the 2012 violence in Rakhine state that left over 100 dead and has resulted in some 125,000 Rohingya Muslims living in designated camps where their movements are restricted.

The timing of Mr Annan's visit is important for the Myanmar government as it happens when the attention of the international community is relatively high on the Southeast Asian nation.

First, Mr Annan's visit comes right after the highly vaunted 21st century Panglong conference where the Myanmar government is seeking to secure peace and reconciliation with the country's ethnic minorities. Several dignitaries, including current UN secretary-general Ban Ki-moon, attended the conference.

Second, the commission's first visit comes days before Myanmar's de facto leader Aung San Suu Kyi's planned visit to the US where she will meet President Barack Obama and address the 71st session of the UN General Assembly. By making some progress in the peace process with the country's ethnic armed groups, as well as by taking certain initiatives with regard to the Rohingya issue, Ms Suu Kyi has a strong case to present during her meeting with Mr Obama and her address to the UN. She is expected to make efforts to convince the international community about her government's positive initiatives and urge for patience and continued support.

Despite some positive developments, there are challenges. The first is the opposition of the commission's composition. Since its formation on Aug 24, two political parties -- the Arakan National Party and the Union Solidarity and Development Party -- have called for its cancellation or the removal of the international members on the grounds that they could not be expected to understand the local context or that their involvement would amount to interference in internal affairs.

Whether these political parties will gradually accept and recognise the role of the commission or continue with their opposition remains to be seen. The acceptance or non-acceptance of the commission may also depend on how its work progresses and the strategy it pursues.

The issue of identity will perhaps be the greatest challenge of the commission. Although the Muslims in Rakhine call themselves Rohingya, the Buddhists in Rakhine, and many across Myanmar, call them illegal Bengali immigrants from Bangladesh. In an attempt to pacify both sides, the government chooses to refer to them as the Muslims of Rakhine.

During his recent visit to Myanmar, Mr Ban chose to use the controversial term "Rohingya" in his speech. While the Muslims in Rakhine want to be identified as Rohingya, and the strong opposition from the ultra or nationalist Buddhists of its usage, it is still unclear as to what name the commission would use to address these people in its report.

Another major challenge will be the question of citizenship for the Rohingya. As of now, the government's position on the issue is not much different from its predecessor. The government wants to address this sensitive question in accordance with the 1982 citizenship law, which would have made many of the Rohingya ineligible for citizenship.

According to the 1982 citizenship law, there are three categories of citizenship: citizen, associate citizen and naturalised citizen. Citizens are descendants of residents who lived in Myanmar prior to 1823 or were born to parents both of whom were citizens. Associate citizens are those who acquired citizenship through the 1948 Union Citizenship Act. Naturalised citizens are people who lived in Burma before Jan 4, 1948, and applied for citizenship after 1982.

Because of the continued allegation of being illegal immigrants from Bangladesh, whether the advisory commission would talk to the Dhaka government in the course of its mission remains to be seen. A compounding complicated issue is that Bangladesh, which already hosts about 300,000 Rohingya, has rejected them as its citizens.

The Myanmar government's appointment of the commission is not the first of its kind. In February 2014, the president Thein Sein appointed a 10-member commission to probe the death of a policeman which had sparked what was described as revenge killings of at least 40 Rohingya Muslims by Buddhist mobs in Rakhine state.

Prior to the appointment of the commission, former Myanmar foreign minister Wunna Maung Lwin also announced a separate inquiry by three government-appointed groups into the circumstances that led to the 2014 violence. The Central Committee for Rakhine State Peace, Stability and Development Implementation; the Myanmar National Human Rights Commission; and the Rakhine Conflict Investigation Commission conducted separate investigations into the killings.

Neither the commission nor the separate investigations found a lasting solution. The initiatives partly failed because the government lacked substantive plans to address the core issues of identity and citizenship of the Rohingya.

In light of these failures and the continued pressure from the international community, the participation of foreign experts may help bring new ideas which may pave the way for a possible solution.

In any case, the task of the Annan-led commission, is to conduct research and give its recommendations to the government. With foreign nationals in the commission, it may engender a neutral idea that could be mutually acceptable.

Reconciliation will have a chance to succeed if Rakhine state Muslims and Buddhists are willing to compromise and respect each other's identity and culture. The government and the public must be ready to embrace the Rohingya if any genuine reconciliation is to be achieved.


Sumber - Bangkok Post

Is ASEAN about to fracture?

Author: Editors, East Asia Forum

President Obama is on his final trip to Asia as president for the G20 summit in Hangzhou in China and the East Asia Summit (EAS) in Vientiane, Laos. Leaders of Asia Pacific nations, including some of the largest and most powerful in the world — eight of them G20 members — will meet in Vientiane because Laos is the chair of ASEAN in 2016.

The ten Southeast Asian nations making up ASEAN will also hold their summit in Vientiane, almost as a sideshow alongside the EAS. Yet they are there because ASEAN is at the centre of Asian regionalism and regional cooperation. The ASEAN grouping celebrates its 50th anniversary next year and continues to defy the odds on falling apart. Conceived for geostrategic reasons, it has been pronounced dead or useless countless times while it still plays a key role in managing major power relationships in Asia and across the Pacific.

ASEAN is very much greater than the sum of its parts. At its best, when unified and on message, it projects the interests of 625 million people from a diverse set of countries ranging from some of the richest and most technologically advanced to some of the poorest countries in Asia and globally. Collectively it is a larger destination for US direct investment than China or Japan.

When divisions appear amongst the ASEAN ten — as has been happening again of late — or progress on economic integration lags behind deadlines — which is the norm — ASEAN looks more like a passenger than the driver of Asian regionalism.

Because China and Japan (and South Korea) are plagued by political squabbles, the ASEAN plus three grouping including ASEAN’s three Northeast Asian neighbours has been useful for promoting broader regional economic and political cooperation. Australia, India and New Zealand, who are all in the neighbourhood and have strong interests in East Asia, build off the plus three and are part of the broader ASEAN plus six grouping. This was initiated in part by Japan’s desire to have more like-minded countries included in the East Asian arrangement. The East Asia Summit was set up to include the United States so Russia had to be brought in too. That ASEAN provides the venue for these powers to get face time is an achievement in itself, even though it could do more to set the agenda and progress Asian and trans-Pacific cooperation.

ASEAN has been successful in helping to institutionalise major power relations in Southeast Asia and in defining the role that great powers play, while giving voice to smaller states. A weakened ASEAN would put all that at risk.

Since the end of the Cold War the economic impact of ASEAN has been more important than its geopolitical impact. A necessary condition for ASEAN to thrive is for its members to deepen economic integration primarily as a base for the broader Asian supply chains that drive trade and economic growth in the regional economy.

The ASEAN Economic Community (AEC) was launched at the end of 2015. It’s an ongoing project towards a single market that has a long way to go and requires member states to commit to and deliver on difficult reforms — something not many have shown the willingness to do in recent years. Doing so collectively will help expand the benefits of regional integration but it is a slow process and the headwinds of anti-globalisation in the rest of the world are not going to make it faster. Much of the region is still very poor or at risk of becoming stuck in a middle-income trap, unable to deliver high incomes. Lifting living standards, and doing so while reducing inequality, is a top priority in ASEAN economies.

The AEC sets the right agenda to achieve that — a gift for which many regions would be grateful. The rapid growth of East Asia in the second half of the 20th century was inclusive; now Asia must return to inclusive growth in order to sustain its future development.

ASEAN once again faces existential threats to its unity and centrality as Mathew Davies explains in this week’s lead essay. It faces the external pressure of ‘rival Chinese and US ambitions’, internal tensions, and questions of legitimacy in the eyes of its people, according to Davies.

Davies says ‘[n]either the United States nor China seem willing to make ASEAN unity a strategic goal’. That’s because it’s easier to ‘harness ASEAN, unified or not, for their own ambitions’. It’s easier to deal with individual member nations and the result is that some align with Washington, others with Beijing and most hedge between both.

The South China Sea tensions have exposed these divisions. It does not help that Indonesia, ASEAN’s biggest member, has shown a tendency to ‘drift away from multilateralism towards a more bilateral and global heavyweight role’, as Davies explains. Indonesia dominates ASEAN in terms of size and is ASEAN’s only G20 member, but has been inclined under its current President, Joko Widodo, to pursue its own interests independently of the ASEAN group.

Former Australian Prime Minister Paul Keating last week called for Australia to join the ASEAN grouping in the context of managing its relationships between the United States and China. Keating’s call suggests that in the midst of these emerging divisions, ASEAN must be doing something right.

ASEAN’s inability to take sides between the United States and China as a group, whether on the South China Sea or other issues, may frustrate many. That same strategic incoherence, however, can be a useful buffer between the superpowers even if it does little to broker cooperation and avoid conflict between them. The risk is that ASEAN, betwixt and between, becomes divided and fractures.

China is a larger economic partner than the United States for all ASEAN members. Many but not all of the ASEAN countries rely on the United States for security from a rising China. That certainly complicates affairs but does not make them unmanageable.

Though ASEAN’s potential is huge, it’s true that it has never fulfilled the more optimistic expectations for its role in the region. It has nonetheless played a critical geopolitical and geo-economic role.

ASEAN remains a force for keeping markets open in Asia, lifting the living standards of its 625 million people, acting as a facilitator of cooperation between major powers, reducing the risk of conflict in the Asia Pacific and bringing coherence to Asian arrangements. ASEAN’s greatest proponents would be shy of owning these lofty goals. But the continued existence of ASEAN itself is still critical to achieving them.


Sumber - East Asia Forum