South China Sea dispute: Will Indonesia play a bigger role in Asean?

An Indonesian navy vessel (foreground) next to a Chinese Coast Guard vessel near
the Natuna Islands. Indonesia is the only Asean country that China has refrained
from dispute-escalation with in the South China Sea.

By Johannes Nugroho

The late British Prime Minister Margaret Thatcher once defined consensus as “something in which no one believes and to which no one objects”.

That would describe the approach of the Association of South-east Asian Nations (Asean), at its recent Summit in Laos, when it comes to the South China Sea territorial disputes.

Although the adoption of the Code for Unplanned Encounters at Sea (Cues) in the South China Sea may signal that Asean and China have taken initial steps to build trust and confidence amid growing tensions, it is unlikely to work wonders.

China did not accept an international tribunal ruling on its claims in the South China Sea based on a legally binding convention such as the 1982 United Nations Convention on Law of the Sea, to which it is a signatory.

Why would it care about a non-binding agreement such as Cues?

The question remains whether Asean can maintain credibility if it fails to resolve a major flashpoint in its own backyard.

Logic dictates that Asean must somehow enact a more coherent set of working methods and understanding, both internally for its own members and externally to deal with China and other non-Asean parties.

To do so, Indonesia’s leadership is paramount. As a founding member of Asean and its traditional status as “first among equals”, Indonesia is well-placed to set the tone for the other member states.

Apart from its size, Indonesia is the only Asean country that China has refrained from dispute-escalation with in the South China Sea.

Chinese Coast Guard vessels did not hesitate to ram Vietnamese boats in 2014 in the standoff between both sides over China’s deployment of an oil-drilling rig in waters near Vietnam’s coast. China’s aggression towards the Philippines in the Spratly Islands is also well-documented.

In contrast, no retaliatory action was taken by China in the aftermath of the June incursion by a fleet of Chinese vessels into the Natuna Sea, to which the Indonesian navy responded by firing at and apprehending one vessel.

To defend its sovereignty over the Natuna Sea vis-a-vis a superior power such as China, Indonesia will need the collective strength of Asean and other like-minded member states.

Some may argue that getting Indonesia to play a bigger role in Asean on the South China Sea issue may not be easy.

The country’s engagement with Asean has waned since the fall of President Suharto in 1998. Increasing complexity in domestic populist politics and budgetary constraints in the Indonesian Ministry of Foreign Affairs have all produced a more inward-looking country with a less confident footing in regional geopolitics. To date, no ministerial blueprint on the South China Sea issue exists.

The election of the domestically popular President Joko Widodo has prompted very little change. Early in his presidency, Mr Widodo showed little interest in Asean diplomacy. Under his sink-the-boat policy for captured illegal foreign fishing vessels, the vessels originating from Asean countries such as Vietnam and Thailand bore the brunt first. The Indonesian government only destroyed its first Chinese vessel in 2015. Interestingly, the vessel in question had already been impounded in 2009.

But there are signs that things could be changing.

First, while China has repeatedly affirmed Indonesia’s claim to the Natuna Islands, it has argued that the overlapping waters are “China’s historical fishing ground”.

So when three incursions by Chinese fishing vessels occurred in the Natuna Sea this year — all supported and escorted by Chinese Coast Guard units — Jakarta must have realised that its avowed status as a “non-party” and an “honest broker” in the South China Sea disputes was no longer tenable.

Jakarta has since replaced its coast guard around the Natunas with naval ships and announced plans for a military buildup and economic development in the area, as outlined in its 2016 State Defence Paper and maritime policy.

Mr Widodo is now also more cognisant of Asean’s centrality to Indonesia’s diplomatic efforts. His active participation at the recent Asean Summit — where he called for Asean unity — may signal a change of heart. Mr Widodo also discussed the South China Sea issue with both Malaysian Prime Minister Najib Razak and Philippine President Rodrigo Duterte during their recent visits to Jakarta.

Faced with China’s unprecedented challenge in the Natuna Sea, Mr Widodo will need all the help he can muster, including insights from his fellow Asean leaders from the Philippines and Vietnam, which face similar territorial disputes with China, as well as from Singapore, which has significant economic and cultural ties with Beijing and is the country coordinator for Asean-China ties.

The Philippines, set to take the Asean chair next year, should welcome and support Indonesia’s increased regional engagement. President Widodo told the Indonesian press that he and President Duterte have a lot in common.

The fact that the subsequent misunderstanding over what the latter told the former about the fate of the Filipina on death row in Indonesia, Mary Jane Veloso, was quickly smoothed out points to a workable relationship between the two.

China’s growing assertiveness in the South China Sea has proved to be one of the most polarising issues that Asean has faced in recent years, testing its core function as the regional forum for conflict resolution.

It is important that Indonesia pulls its weight within Asean to prevent the association’s plunge into irrelevance.

Vietnam’s unease at the situation is already palpable. At a recent lecture in Singapore, Vietnamese President Tran Dai Quang spoke against the “‘might makes right’ mindset”, clearly with China in mind.

Bearing in mind that Vietnam is already looking beyond Asean in its security stratagem, such as forging closer defence ties with India through their collaboration on the BrahMos missile system, the urgency of Asean unity is beyond doubt.

Let us hope that Indonesia, working alongside the other founding members, could pave the way to a consensus that everyone can work with and that no one objects to.


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