Suu Kyi making first campaign tour

DAWEI, Myanmar: Thousands of supporters in Myanmar’s countryside cheered opposition leader Aung San Suu Kyi during her first campaign tour for parliament Sunday, highlighting how quickly and dramatically politics is changing in this long-repressed Southeast Asian nation.

Throngs of people crowded the airport to greet Suu Kyi in the southern town of Dawei and lined the roads shouting: “Long Live Daw Aung San Suu Kyi!” “Daw” is a title of respect in Myanmar.

Many waved bouquets of flowers, and some hoisted babies on their shoulders to glimpse the Nobel Peace laureate, who is revered as Myanmar’s icon for democracy. Banners with pictures of Suu Kyi decorated the town.

“People had been afraid to discuss politics for so long,” said Aung Zaw Hein, an environmental activist. “Now that she’s visiting, the political spirit of people has been awakened.”

Suu Kyi, 66, has devoted much of her life to the struggle against authoritarian rule, but spent 15 of the past 23 years under house arrest and has never held elected office. If she wins, Suu Kyi will have limited power in the legislature, which remains dominated by the military and the ruling party, but victory would be highly symbolic and give the longtime political prisoner a voice in government for the first time.

The one-day campaign stop in Dawei follows a series of unprecedented reforms enacted by the nominally civilian government that took over when a military junta ceded power last year. The government has released hundreds of political prisoners, reached cease-fire deals with ethnic rebels, increased press freedoms and eased censorship laws.

The April 1 by-election is being held to fill 48 seats in the lower house of parliament that were vacated after lawmakers were appointed to the Cabinet and other posts last year.

Her party boycotted the last vote in 2010, but registered earlier this month for by-elections after authorities amended electoral laws, enabling her party to legally participate.

The Election Commission must still accept Suu Kyi’s candidacy. A ruling is expected in February.

Suu Kyi is hoping to run for representative for the constituency of Kawhmu, a poor district just south of Yangon where villagers’ livelihoods were devastated by Cyclone Nargis in 2008.

The vote is being closely watched at home and abroad because it is seen as a crucial test of the regime’s commitment to change.

Suu Kyi, who won the Nobel Peace Prize in 1991 for her nonviolent struggle for democracy, has rarely traveled over the last two decades outside Yangon, the country’s main city.

Although she conducted one successful day of rallies in two small towns north of Yangon last August, a previous political tour to greet supporters in 2003 sparked a bloody ambush on her convoy that saw her forcibly confined to house arrest at her lakeside home.

Suu Kyi was finally released from house arrest in late 2010, just days after the country’s military rulers organized elections widely viewed as neither free nor fair.

In Dawei, a coastal town south of Yangon, Suu Kyi will campaign on behalf of another candidate running for a parliament seat, party spokesman Nyan Win said.

She will make similar campaign trips to other Burmese towns, including the country’s second city, Mandalay, in early February before campaigning for her own seat, Nyan Win said.

In Dawei, Suu Kyi will meet party supporters and conduct rallies. The town is home to activists who recently helped persuade the government to ditch construction of a 4,000-megawatt coal-fired power plant over environmental concerns.

A 400-megawatt coal plant is still planned, however, because it will be needed to fuel a massive industrial complex project that includes construction of a deep sea port, a steel mill and a petrochemical plant. The project also includes railroads and highways that will connect Burma’s coast directly to Thailand and the rest of Southeast Asia.

Dipetik dari - Arab News

Russia, Brunei jointly move towards prosperity

Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov is currently touring counties of the Asia-Pacific region. On Saturday, he visited Japan, and on Sunday – Brunei.

In Brunei’s capital, a city called Bandar Seri Begawan, Mr. Lavrov met with Second Minister of Foreign Affairs and Trade Lim Jock Seng. Then, the Russian Foreign Minister went to the local university, where he made a speech. His audience consisted of Brunei’s top officials and businesspeople, as well as the university’s teachers and students.

As far as Islam is the official religion in Brunei, every ceremony there usually starts with a prayer. This time, the audience also prayed to Allah before Mr. Lavrov’s speech.

In his speech, Sergey Lavrov stressed that Russia is an inseparable part of the Asia-Pacific region, and Russia’s interests in the region are one of the main aspects of the Russian government’s policy.

At present, the role of the countries of the Asia-Pacific region in the world policy is evidently growing, and Mr. Lavrov spoke mostly on this topic in his speech. The Russian minister thinks that currently, Russia has no serious contradictions with any of the countries of the region, and those small misunderstandings which still exist can be settled through talks.

Economic cooperation between Russia and Asian countries is also growing, Mr. Lavrov said.

n 2012, a summit of the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation Forum will be held in Russia – for the first time in the forum’s history. Mr. Lavrov believes that the forum will open new possibilities both for Asian countries and for Russia.

The Russian Foreign Minister also spoke about concrete plans for Russian-Brunei cooperation:

“For many years, Russia has had very good relations with Brunei. The two countries are cooperating very closely – both in politics and in other spheres. For example, intensive talks are now being held between the two countries’ energy ministries. Some time ago, a delegation of the Brunei Ministry of Energy visited Russia, and later, a delegation of the Russian Energy Ministry paid the visit back. The Russian gas giant “Gazprom” is discussing possible contracts with “Brunei Petroleum”. Brunei will probably buy some oil-producing equipment from Russia. Besides, a delegation of the Russian “Rosatom” atomic agency has visited Brunei. Russia and Brunei are also planning to think over possible joint projects in other countries – and, I believe, much may be done here if we join our potentials.”

This is Sergey Lavrov’s first visit to Brunei in the status of Russia’s foreign minister.

Diplomatic relations between Russia and Brunei were established in 1991.

Dipetik dari - Voice of Russia


Asia-Pacific top foreign policy priority, says Russian minister

Adam Radhi
BRUNEI-MUARA
Monday, January 30, 2012

THE Asia-Pacific region has become a top foreign policy priority for Russia as it seeks to build regional security through further trade and investment liberalisation to forge economic integration.

Russian Minister of Foreign Affairs, Sergey Lavrov while delivering a lecture on Russian foreign policy at Universiti Brunei Darussalam (UBD) yesterday, said Russia's first priority is to assume an active participation in building the "regional architecture of security and cooperation".

Lavrov, who is on a two-day visit to the Sultanate as part of a working tour around the Asia Pacific region, underscored the importance of the East Asian Summit in charting a path towards a more secure regional order.

He added: "Special attention" will be given to it as it offers a "natural format for developing a holistic concept of transformation of the regional order and establishing a new security architecture in East Asia".

"We focus our attention on the promotion of trade and economic ties with the Asia-Pacific region states," Lavrov told an audience comprising students and staff of UBD, foreign dignitaries and government representatives from the Ministry of Foreign Affairs and Trade.

In promoting the liberalisation of trade and investment activities, he said Russia invites partners to carry out large-scale projects in the Far East and Siberia regions.

Also, Russia will be placing emphasis on establishing "modernisation alliances" on the basis of innovations in high-added-value economic sectors, Lavrov said, adding high technologies and outer space activities as examples.

Other key priority areas highlighted were: cooperation for innovative growth, improvement of transport and logistics systems, and strengthening food security.

Dipetik dari - The Brunei Times

The US and its double standards on human rights

By ABDEL AZIZ ALUWAISHEG

Double standards are nothing new in politics. The gap between rhetoric and actual practice is especially wide when it comes to lofty claims about human rights. US administrations, in particular, are frequently singled out for criticism of employing one standard for its rhetoric and another for its own practices.

Is such criticism fair or valid? A report issued last week by Human Rights Watch may help answer this question. Few governments invoke principles of human rights as much as the United States government does. By its own rhetoric, the US sets a higher standard for human rights compliance, which is logically used by its critics to evaluate its record.

At least since the Carter Administration, the US has employed human rights compliance or lack thereof as a key element in its foreign policy, or at least public pronouncements about its friends and adversaries, in varying degrees.

Nowadays, the US probably has the largest human rights section in its foreign affairs bureaucracy. The Bureau of Democracy, Human Rights, and Labor is an important part of the State Department, headed these days by Michael Posner, a former human rights lawyer and head of Human Rights First, a well-known human rights organization based in New York.

The division produces the controversial annual “Country Reports on Human Rights Practices,” which provides meticulous details about human rights infractions around the world, but nevertheless provokes criticism for using different standards for different countries.

However, the more important test for the US government’s human rights pretensions is in the actual practice of its own agencies. How does the US fare in actually living up to the high principles it advocates? Is there a double standard operating here, as is often claimed?

Human Rights Watch’s report issued on Jan. 22 provides several facts that make reasonable people conclude that there may in fact be a double standard operating in more cases than can be explained by bureaucratic failures or cultural norms.

Consider these examples that the HRW report documents:

1. The US incarcerates more people than any other country in the world, sometimes imposing very long sentences marred by racial disparities.

2. Some 363,000 non-citizens are held in immigration detention facilities, although many are not dangerous or at risk of flight.

3. Detentions without charge at Guantanamo Bay, Cuba.

4. Seriously flawed military tribunals.

5. Blocking lawsuits seeking redress for torture victims.

6. 46 million people live in poverty in the US, the largest number in recent memory. Poverty often intersects with racial and gender inequalities.

Keep in mind that HRW, which has documented these infractions of the US’ own standards, is a moderate, middle of the road American organization. If anything, it is accused sometimes of soft-peddling, not over-criticizing, US human rights violations.

There is no question that US advocacy of human rights has been frequently quite useful for a variety of reasons, but its value would be greater if it had a better record of compliance.

Dipetik dari - Arab News

Oil stabilisation fund creation sought

Ubaidillah Masli
BRUNEI-MUARA
Friday, January 27, 2012

BRUNEI should establish a fund to retain and convert some of the wealth generated from oil and gas into human capital through investments in education and skill-building, a foreign expert said.

This, said Professor Dr Jorg Beutel, would ensure the sustainable development of the economy.

In measuring sustainable development, Beutel explained that economists would have to consider increases in produced capital and human capital and the decrease in natural capital which together form gross capital and its relation to gross national income (GNI) to deduce a country's net or "genuine" savings rate.

"You would hope, specifically for a country in which the population is growing, that the gross capital of all three is not declining every year because then, we would be in trouble.

"You would become poorer," said Beutel, who is a professor of Economics and Environmental Sciences at the Hochschule Konstanz University of Applied Sciences in Germany.

"It would also allow a certain substitution between the three forms of capital," he added.

"This is why I would like to encourage you to establish an oil stabilisation fund or future generation fund because you should transfer your oil and gas (wealth) into education and man-paid capital, because then the gross capital will remain in place."

Beutel, a senior research associate for DIW econ GmbH, was involved in the team of German consultants that helped produce Brunei's Input-Output Table for 2005, which was unveiled last Tuesday.

The table is aimed to be used as a tool for effective policy planning and decision making.

Based on the comprehensive data compiled, however, it showed that Brunei was in the red for its adjusted net savings, a yardstick used by the World Bank to assess nations.

"Unfortunately (for Brunei), we have a negative number here.

"The share of Gross National Income is minus one per cent, so net savings is negative, which means that gross capital stock is declining but still at the moderate rate of minus one per cent," the consultant said.

"But it's not growing despite the population growing," he added.

"So this is not a good piece of information that I have to give."

Initially, Brunei had "one of the highest (gross national) savings ratio on Earth" at 53.5 per cent of GNI, but this was before deductions of fixed capital consumption and energy depletion, among other deductions in natural capital.

The figure turned out negative primarily due to the "very heavy" percentage share of energy depletion, at 44.3 per cent, from the country's GNI.

"We are an oil and gas producer for a real long time in the economic history. So gradually, these sources are depleting than when we started," he said.

He added: "(With activities like) deep sea drilling, this is very heavily allocated and this calculation is based on the same methodology implemented by the World Bank, so this information is comparable."

From fossil fuel to education

Meanwhile, Beutel noted that expenditure on education, which was added on because it was considered an investment to the nation, was "not bad" at 3.6 per cent of national income.

"But it is not a world record... So we could do be better, specifically, when we have to transform fossil fuel into education into human capital," he said.

The deductions of mineral depletion, net forest depletion and particulate emissions damage to Brunei's environment were negligible, while damage from carbon dioxide emissions were "not a bad result", recorded at a cost of 0.4 per cent of GNI.

"We must try to (pursue the path) of transforming natural capital your energy, your fossil fuels into physical man-made capital," Beutel reiterated.

Dipetik dari - The Brunei Times

Sombong bukan akhlak ahli PAS

Idris Ahmad
26 Jan 2012

Sombong, bongkak, angkuh, atau takbur mempunyai satu pengertian yang sama iaitu tergolong dari sifat mazmumah (sifat-sifat tercela atau keji). Sifat ini, walaupun sedikit, menjadi kebencian dan kemurkaan Allah. Dan boleh menghalang kita mendapat Syurga.

Firman Allah yang bermaksud:

“Sesungguhnya mereka yang sombong untuk taat sebagai hamba-Ku, mereka akan masuk neraka jahanam sebagai makhluk yang hina-dina.” - (Al-Mukmin: 60).

Sifat sombong atau takbur boleh dibahagi kepada dua: takbur zahir dan takbur batin. Takbur zahir boleh dilihat melalui percakapan dan tindakannya. Gayanya angkuh, mulutnya tajam, mudah menghina orang yang dianggapnya lebih rendah daripadanya. Kadangkala ia boleh dilihat melalui percakapan seperti tidak mahu mengaku kalah, menganggap dirinya sentiasa benar dan tidak mahu mendengar atau mengikut nasihat.

Imam Al-Ghazali berkata:

“Orang yang takbur ialah apabila ditegur dia marah, sedangkan kalau menegur orang lain, caranya keras dan kasar.”

Takbur batin ialah membesarkan diri dalam hati. Inilah maksiat hati yang dicela. Contohnya iblis menganggap dirinya lebih baik dan mulia daripada Nabi Adam. Lalu dengan angkuhnya dia enggan tunduk kepada Nabi Adam sehingga menyebabkan Allah melaknat Iblis dan seluruh keturunannya.

Sombong adalah penyakit hati yang bahaya. Orang yang berpenyakit ini tidak boleh menjadi pemimpin jamaah terutamanya. Ditakuti melalui tindak-tanduknya akan menampakkan akhlaknya yang buruk. Lebih bahaya lagi jika dia mewakili jemaah kerana nama jemaah akan turut buruk.

Sifat ini boleh membawa kebinasaan kepada petugas dan pemimpin jamaah. Kerana sifat takbur ia menjadi benteng penghalang masyarakat untuk rapat dengan dia dan jamaah.

Orang yang takbur mereka lupa bahawa sombong adalah pakaian Allah, iaitu hak uluhiyah-Nya yang tidak boleh dirampas oleh sesiapa seperti dinyatakan dalam hadis yang diriwayatkan Muslim,

Rasulullah Saw bersabda:
“Allah Swt berfirman; Kemuliaan adalah pakaian-Ku, sedangkan sombong adalah selendang-Ku. Barang siapa yang melepaskan keduanya dari-Ku, maka Aku akan menyiksanya”. [HR Muslim]

Tanda-tanda sifat takbur dalam berbagai bentuk

- Tidak mahu bergaul dengan orang miskin sebaliknya suka memandang berat kepada golongan kaya dan orang kenamaan.
- Mengambil berat secara berlebihan dalam pakaian.
- Tidak mahu berucap melainkan dalam perhimpunan yang dihadiri ramai orang.
- Menggunakan bahasa yang payah dan berbunga dengan berlebihan sehingga sukar difahami. Inilah yang diperingat oleh baginda nabi Muhammad SAW:

“Sesungguhnya Allah benci kepada pemidato dari (golongan lelaki) yang memilih (kata-kata) dengan lidahnya seperti lembu memilih-milih (rumput) dengan lidahnya” (Abu Daud dan al-Tirmizi)

- Kagum dengan ilmu sendiri dan membodohkan orang lain

Cara untuk mengubat

Untuk mengatasi penyakit ini kita mesti bersifat tawadhuk. Orang yang tawadhuk dia hidup dengan semua orang dan bersedia menyambut semua orang, bercakap dengan semua orang, menziarahi semua orang dan mengasihi semua orang. Dia memberi khidmatnya kepada orang. Beliau sentiasa berhubung dengan orang ramai bukan memutuskan dan menjauhi mereka.

Sebagai ahli PAS hendaklah mesti bersikap rendah diri sama ada sesama anggota atau dengan orang lain lebih-lebih lagi yang bertaraf pemimpin. Railah ahli PAS, bukan wang yang mereka minta. Mereka hanya perlukan senyuman, teguran dan sentuhan daripada pemimpin. Ini sahaja yang mereka minta. Mereka tidak minta upah semasa mereka memenangkan kita sebagai wakil rakyat. Mereka meninggalkan kerja harian, untuk bertugas kepada calon yang bertanding, walaupun keluarga mereka memerlukan perbelanjaan harian. Mereka tidak pernah merungut dan mengeluh terhadap curahan tenaga mereka yang tidak pernah dibayar.

Walaupun kita bijak macam mana sekalipun, dia perlu membuang sifat ego daripada dirinya. Kerana yang ia memimpin ini satu jamaah Islam, bukan badan kerajaan atau swasta, bukan gerakan elit, ahlinya bekerja secara sukarela bukan ada gaji. Apabila ini dapat dibuktikan dalam jamaah insyaAllah ia akan merancakkan kerja jamaah dan dapat melebarkan pengaruh PAS kepada orang luar. Sekiranya ahli dan pemimpin PAS dengan sifat ego dan merasakan dirinya pandai dan bijak maka ia tidak akan boleh membawa parti ke arah yang lebih cemerlang. Orang ego dan sombong tidak boleh kekal lama dalam Pas dan memajukan jamaah dengan lebih cemerlang. Malahan akan memalapkan usaha dan perancangan jamaah.

Abdullah Ibn Masud ada menyebut dua perkara yang membinasakan manusia iaitu berputus asa dan rasa bangga diri.

Sifat tawadhuk akan membuka hati mad’u untuk tertarik dengan apa yang dibawa oleh PAS. Mereka apabila bertemu dengan orang ramai, dia yang memulakan salam dengan semua yang ditemuinya. Mereka bersikap sederhana ketika berkumpul dengan orang-orang fakir dalam satu majlis. Mereka makan dengan apa yang dihidangkan kepadanya dan berjalan di atas muka bumi dengan rasa rendah hati.

Firman Allah s.w.t.:

“Dan hamba Allah yang baik; ialah orang-orang yang berjalan di atas muka bumi dengan rendah hati dan apabila orang-orang jahil menyapa mereka, mereka mengucapkan kata-kata yang mengandungi keselamatan (kesejahteraan) (al-Furqan: 63)

Merendah diri dan menerima kebenaran dan bersedia mengikutnya sekalipun orang-orang jahil menasihatinya. Takabbur atau sombong sangat dibenci oleh Allah dan juga oleh manusia lain. Kemuliaan di sisi Allah diukur dari segi ketaqwaan seseorang itu bukannya pangkat, harta dan lain-lain.

Rasulullah s.a.w. bersabda:

“Barangsiapa yang merendahkan diri kerana Allah, maka ia diangkat darjatnya oleh Allah dan barangsiapa yang sombong, maka direndahkan tingkatnya oleh Allah.”

Juga sabdanya s.a.w.:

"Sesungguhnya Allah telah mewahyukan kepadaku agar kamu bersifat tawadhuk sehingga seorang tidak merasa megah terhadap seorang yang lain, dan juga tidak bersikap melampau di antara seseorang dengan seorang yang lain” (Muslim dan Abu Daud) Nasih : 38

Imam Ghazali telah memberi beberapa panduan untuk mengelakkan sikap takbur ini. Apabila berjumpa kanak-kanak, anggaplah mereka lebih mulia daripada kita kerana kanak-kanak belum dibebani dosa. Apabila berhadapan dengan orang tua pula, anggaplah juga mereka lebih mulia kerana lebih lama beribadah daripada kita. Ketika berjumpa orang alim, anggaplah beliau lebih mulia kerana banyak ilmu dan apabila melihat orang jahil anggaplah juga mereka lebih mulia kerana berbuat dosa disebabkan kejahilan sedangkan kita berbuat dosa dalam keadaan mengetahuinya.

Jika berjumpa orang jahat, jangan anggap kita mulia. Tetapi, katakanlah mungkin orang jahat itu akan bertaubat pada masa tuanya, sedangkan kita belum tahu akhirnya. Begitu juga apabila bertemu orang kafir. Katakan, belum tentu dia akan kafir selama-lamanya.

Dipetik dari - HarakahDaily

Semoga intipati tulisan ini dapat diambil pengajaran dan memberi manfaat kepada warga NDP.

Democracy Taiwan's 'best gift' to China: Ma

TAIPEI
Thursday, January 26, 2012

TAIWAN'S President Ma Ying-jeou said this month's presidential vote was the island's "best gift" to China, hailing the potential for the poll to show the path to democracy on the mainland.

Ma has said hundreds of millions of people in mainland China watched Taiwan's presidential candidates debate live on television last month for the first time through the Internet.

The poll, which saw Ma re-elected, could inspire Chinese democracy supporters, he said in a statement released by the Presidential Office.

"The peaceful election, a sign of democracy taking roots and bear fruits on the soil of a Chinese community, will make them feel that this will also happen on the mainland," the statement said.

"I believe this is the best gift from us to the mainland."

He added that the January 14 vote will demonstrate to the mainland that "headcount is the best way to solve differences between the two sides".

Ma, of the China-friendly Kuomintang party, retained his post after four years of policies that have seen the most dramatic thaw in the island's ties with China since the two sides split more than six decades ago.

Dipetik dari - The Brunei Times

Can a protracted economic slowdown be avoided?

The world economy is teetering on the brink of another major downturn. As in 2008, economic woes in the major developed economies are weakening economic prospects around the world. This and other findings were presented as DESA’s flagship report the World Economic Situation and Prospects (WESP) 2012 was launched today in Addis Ababa, Beijing, Geneva, Johannesburg, Moscow and New Delhi. Regional releases of the report are also scheduled for Mexico City on 18 January; and in Bangkok and Beirut on 19 January.

There are multiple concerns, but policymakers throughout Europe and the United States are mainly fixated on reducing large fiscal deficits and public debt. The concerns are serious, and the ongoing sovereign debt crises in the euro zone have been a source of continuous turmoil in financial markets.

Unfortunately, the present policy responses are highly inadequate. Most developed economies have phased out stimulus measures and shifted to fiscal austerity. With unemployment rates remaining very high and financial sectors still clogged, this approach is pulling the plug on the recovery by exacerbating the lack of aggregate demand, further weakening the prospects for jobs recovery and economic development in the longer run.

Bleaker medium and long-term growth prospects would also undermine the financial sustainability of health and pension systems over time, thus achieving precisely the opposite of what policymakers are aiming at through fiscal austerity.

Is there an alternative? Yes. As shown in the UN’s World Economic Situation and Prospects 2012, many developed countries have more than adequate fiscal space for additional stimulus. If well targeted at job creation and green growth and adequately coordinated internationally, additional stimulus could quicken the recovery and put the global economy on a more balanced and sustainable growth path.

In conjunction with the launch of the World Economic Situation and Prospects 2012, the Development Policy and Analysis Division (DPAD) of UN DESA is organizing a live chat on Facebook to answer questions concerning the risks and opportunities for the world economy, as well as the scope for policy action in the year ahead.

Join Rob Vos, Director of DPAD, and economists from the Global Economic Monitoring Unit for this live Facebook chat on 20 January 2012 at 9:00 am to 10:00 am EST at http://on.fb.me/wesp2012

--> WESP 2012. Full Report

Dipetik dari - DESA News - United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs

Posting berkaitan,
--> Report warns of heightened risk of new recession

Ikhwan Muslimin terajui kerajaan baru Mesir

MOHD RASHIDI HASSAN
24 Jan 2012

Andainya kematian kau tangisi
Pusara kau siram dengan air matamu
Maka di atas tulang belulangku yang dah luluh
Nyalakanlah obor untuk umat ini dan
Lanjutkanlah gerak merebut kemenangan

Kematianku hanyalah suatu perjalanan
Memenuhi panggilan kekasih yang merindu
Taman-taman indah di syurga Tuhan
Terhampar menanti
Burung-burungnya berpesta menyambutku
Dan berbahagialah hidupku di sana

Puaka kegelapan pastikan lebur
Fajarkan menyingsing
Dan alam ini kan disinari cahaya lagi
Relakanlah rohku terbang menjelang rindunya
Jangan gentar berkelana ke alam abadi
Di sana cahaya fajar memancar.

- As-Syahid Syed Qutb

Selepas 46 tahun pujangga dan sasterawan ulung as-syahid Syed Qutb melakarkan syairnya di sebalik jeriji besi penjara, kini gerakan Islam di Mesir yang diterajui Ikhwan Muslimin sedang bergerak merebut kemenangan bagi seluruh rakyat Mesir.

Kemenangan besar Ikhwan di bawah kepimpinan Mursyidul Am, Dr Mohamed Badie, menerusi Parti al-Hurriyah wal 'Adalah (parti Kebebasan dan Keadilan atau Freedom and Justice Party - FJP) dan parti-parti gabungannya dalam Pilihan Raya Umum Mesir minggu lepas, iaitu hampir setahun selepas Presiden Hosni Mubarak digulingkan, merupakan suatu perubahan besar kepada landskap politik di negara-negara Arab.

Walaupun Syed Qutb dan beberapa orang pimpinan Ikhwan dizalimi sehingga mati syahid di tali gantung pada pagi Isnin 29 Ogos 1966, tidak dapat merasai nikmat kemenangan perjuangan Islam, sekurang-kurangnya roh mereka berbahagia disisi Allah, kerana pengorbanan mereka sudah ditebus Ikhwan.

Selepas tiga pusingan pilihan raya yang dianjurkan secara bebas dengan pemantauan dunia, keputusan muktamad pilihan raya umum Mesir mencatatkan FJP menang 232 kerusi Parlimen (lebih 45 peratus kerusi), Parti Nur Salafi meraih 113 kerusi, Parti Wafdu (Sekular) dengan 47 kerusi, Parti Kutlah (Sekular) mendapat 39 kerusi, Parti Fulul (bekas penyokong Hosni) memperolehi 17 kerusi, Parti Wasot Islami 10 kerusi, Parti Thaurah Mustamirah dengan 8 kerusi dan parti bebas mendapat 14 kerusi.

Sementara 18 lagi kerusi Parlimen sedang menanti untuk diadakan pilihan raya dalam masa terdekat.

Secara keseluruhannya FJP mendapat 13 juta undi, Parti Nur Salafi dengan 7 juta undi dan golongan sekular mendapat 5 juta undi. Gabungan golongan Islam FJP dan Salafi mencatatkan undi keseluruhan 20 juta undi.

Dengan kemenangan besar ini, sudah pasti FJP iaitu parti tajaan Ikhwan akan menerajui Kerajaan Mesir. Sementara dalam tempoh peralihan ini (selepas Mubarak dijatuhkan) sehingga kerajaan baru mengangkat sumpah, khususnya tugas-tugas mentadbir masih lagi di bawah tugasan tentera.

Ikhwan menerusi FJP akan menjadi peneraju utama untuk menggubal Perlembagaan baru Mesir. Dalam perlembagaan baru yang bakal digubal nanti, akan ditetapkan sama ada kuasa pemerintahan akan diserahkan kepada Parlimen, atau kepada Presiden.

Penggubalan Perlembagaan sudah dipersetujui untuk diserahkan kepada Parlimen yang dipilih secara demokratik oleh rakyat Mesir menerusi pilihan raya yang adil dan bebas.

Perlembagan ini digubal kerana, sebelum ini Mesir diperintah secara diktator oleh Mubarak. Pada zamannya Parlimen hanya diberi kuasa sebagai legislatif, tetapi hak mutlak administratif dan eksekutif di bawah kuasa penuh Presiden.

Pengubalan Perlembagaan ini juga akan menentukan terma-terma pembahagian kuasa antara Parlimen dan Presiden. Apa pun Perlembagaan baru Mesir akan disiapkan sebelum Pilihan Raya Presiden Mesir yang dijangka akan diadakan awal Jun depan.

Sebagai langkah peralihan kuasa, Perdana Menteri (sementara), Dr Kamal Ganzouri mengadakan perbincangan dengan Presiden FJP Dr Mohamed Morsi dan Setiausaha Agung FJP, Dr Mohamed Sa'du Katatni.

Dalam pertemuan itu Dr Morsi menegaskan bahawa agenda utama yang menjadi fokus FJP untuk digubal Perlembagaan Mesir adalah, mengutamakan kepentingan rakyat termiskin.

Pada pertemuan itu Dr Morsi menegaskan,"Keutamaan kami (FJP) adalah untuk mencapai kestabilan dan harmoni untuk kepentingan seluruh rakyat Mesir.

"Untuk itu, saya menekankan peri pentingnya kerjasama semua golongan dalam masyarakat, terutamanya golongan pasca revolusi yang menguasai Parlimen yang bakal dibentuk. Buat pertama kalinya dalam dekad ini (Parlimen) akan mewakili kepentingan seluruh rakyat Mesir."

Dalam langkahnya bertahaluf siyasi dengan pelbagai golongan untuk mencapai kestabilan politik dan keharmonian rakyat, FJP mencalonkan Setiausaha Agungnya sebagai calon Speaker Parlimen, yang merupakan jawatan yang mempunyai kuasa besar di dalam sistem demokrasi berpresiden.

Selain Dr Sa'du Katatni, FJP juga mengumumkan akan menyokong seorang wakil Parti Nur Salafi (golongan Islam) dan wakil Parti Wafdu yang berhaluan sekular sebagai Timbalan Speaker.

Dr Katatni bukannya calang-calang orang. Beliau merupakan antara seorang pejuang Ikhwan yang ulung. Di zaman diktator Mubarak, beliau dipenjarakan dan diseksa bersama dengan Dr Mohamed Morsi dan Essam El-Erian.

Dr Katatni merupakan sarjana Phd dalam jurusan sains yang pernah bertugas sebagai Profesor, mengajar subjek mikro biologi dalam bidang botani di Universiti Minia. Kemudiannya dilantik sebagai dekan fakulti pada tahun 1994-1998.

Beliau juga memperolehi ijazah dalam bidang Pengajian Islam di bawah Fakulti Sastera pada tahun 2000. Selain itu beliau merupakan Setiausaha Agung Jawatankuasa Pengajar Universiti berkenaan.

Selain pengalaman politik, pengamalan Dr Katatni dalam bidang akademik sangat hebat. Sepanjang kariernya, beliau mengawasi lebih 21 kajian untuk pemegang Master dan Phd dalam hal ehwal botani selain menulis 36 kajian, di mana beliau menjadi Pengerusi Persatuan Saintis di Minia.

Katatni menceburi bidang politik selepas menyertai Ikhwan Muslimin. Beliau bertanding dalam pilihan raya umum Mesir pada tahun 2005 dan menang mewakili daerah Minia.

Di dalam Parlimen (pada zaman Mubarak) Dr Katatni merupakan Ketua Whip Parlimen Ikhwan sebelum disumbat ke dalam penjara oleh rejim Mubarak.

Justeru pelantikan Dr Katatni sebagai calon Speaker dari FJP berdasarkan pengalaman yang luas serta sumbangan besar beliau dalam bidang akademik dan politik di Mesir.

Tidak dinafikan bahawa perhatian dunia khususnya golongan Barat tertumpu ke Mesir pada waktu ini. Wakil-wakil Barat saban hari mengunjungi Ibu Pejabat Ikhwan di Jabal Muqattam dan pejabat FJP di Manial al-Roda.

Bekas Presiden Amerika Syarikat, Jimmy Carter turut berkunjung. Beliau menemui Mursyidul Am, Dr Badie. Manakala Timbalan Setiausaha Luar Amerika, William Branze menemui Presiden FJP, Dr Morsi.

Malah dalam pertemuan berasingan Duta Besar British ke Mesir, James Watt menegaskan pihaknya bersedia untuk memberikan sokongan bagi memulihkan ekonomi Mesir.

Kemenangan Ikhwan menerusi FJP turut menarik perhatian diplomat German. Dalam satu artikelnya dalam akhbar Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung, Menteri Luar German, Guido Westerwelle membicarakan tentang peranan parti-parti politik Islam yang sedang membuat perubahan kepada landskap politik di negara Benua Afrika Utara dan dunia Arab yang disifatkan sebagai Arab Spring.

Westerwelle berpendapat, perubahan besar yang melanda negara-negara seperti Tunisia, Maghribi, Libya dan Mesir terutamanya, masih berhadapan dengan beberapa ancaman, antaranya pada saat kritikal peralihan kuasa dari rejim lama kepada kerajaan baru. Selain itu, Arab Spring menghadapi cabaran besar untuk memulihkan ekonomi kerana rakyat di kebanyakan negara terbabit berada dalam belengu kemiskinan.

"Kita harus membantu proses transisi di utara Afrika dan dunia Arab dalam bentuk politik dan ekonomi. Menerusi pelaburan, kerjasama pendidikan dan pasaran terbuka. Kita boleh bantu menaiktarafkan prospek ekonomi rakyat dengan memberikan peluang yang lebih kepada mereka untuk mendapat kehidupan yang selesa," ujar Westerwelle.

Dipetik dari - Harakah Daily

US, Filipino Forces Plan Drills Near Disputed Area

U.S. and Philippine marines plan to hold combat drills at an oil rig in the South China Sea to bolster the defense of such sensitive facilities in a bold move that may provoke protests from China, which claims waters in or near the location.

Lt. Gen. Juancho Sabban, commander of the Philippine military's Western Command, said Thursday the exercises will be held in March or April off western Palawan province and should not alarm China because these will be done within Philippine territorial waters.

The drills involve U.S. Marines training their Philippine counterparts in defending and retaking oil and gas rigs captured by security threats like terrorists, Sabban said, adding military organizers from both sides did not contemplate on China as an imaginary target when they planned the drills.

"We need this special training so we can defend our oil and gas platforms," Sabban told The Associated Press. "We're doing it in an actual oil rig. We have many of these oil rigs we need to protect."

The drills are part of an annual joint military exercises by the longtime defense allies called Balikatan, which aims to improve the capability of the two countries' forces to respond militarily to threats that include terrorists, pirates and smugglers or deal with natural disasters.

The Balikatan or "shoulder-to-shoulder" exercises have mostly been done around the main northern Luzon island in past years but will be held in Palawan for nearly a month starting in mid-March. More than 500 U.S. soldiers and marines, along with their warships and aircraft, will take part in the exercises with about 1,000 Filipino military personnel, Sabban said.

Aside from the combat drills, the military participants will undertake school repairs and medical missions.

"It's an annual exercise and should not cause any concern to China," Sabban said.

Still, the Balikatan exercises may likely invite Chinese protests.

Palawan province lies near the Spratlys, a potentially oil- and gas-rich chain of islands, shoals, coral outcrops and sand bars being disputed by China and the Philippines, along with Taiwan, Vietnam, Malaysia and Brunei. The Spratlys have long been feared as Asia's next potential flashpoint for conflict.

China, which claims virtually all of the South China Sea on historical grounds, has routinely protested military exercises near the disputed territories. The Chinese Embassy in Manila did not immediately respond to an AP request for a comment.

Sabban said the upcoming oil rig drills will be held in Philippine waters northwest of Palawan near an area called Malampaya, site of the country's largest natural gas field.

The AP has learned that China last year claimed new territory in or near the venue of the planned drills.

China protested in July a publicly-announced plan by the Philippine government to explore for oil and gas in waters called "areas 3 and 4," the nearest point of which lies less than 50 miles (80 kilometers) from Palawan. The Philippines has dismissed China's claims, arguing the areas were well within the country's territorial waters and too far off mainland China, Energy Undersecretary Jose Layug Jr. has said.

The new areas being claimed by China are not part of the Spratlys.

The Philippines has appropriated more funds to protect Malampaya and outlying waters and secure foreign companies exploring for oil and gas, Budget Secretary Florencio Abad said Thursday.

"What creates uncertainty is this looming threat coming from China," Abad said. "It hasn't really helped the cause of everybody who are active players in the region for China to be unpredictable and for countries not to be able to read the direction of Chinese government policy."

Beijing has been asserting its territorial claims more aggressively as its economic and diplomatic muscle has grown. In March, two Chinese vessels tried to drive away a Philippine oil exploration ship from Reed Bank, another area west of Palawan.

Two Philippine air force planes were deployed, but the Chinese vessels had disappeared by the time they reached the submerged bank.

Dipetik dari - ABC News

Lagi posting berkaitan,
--> Dispute over oil rich islands in South China Sea could escalate into 'state-on-state conflict', U.S. admiral warns
--> Philippines ready to validate claim to Spratlys in UN forum
--> Manila protests Chinese ships' presence in Spratlys

Editorial: A momentous year

It is now a full year since the Arab Spring produced its first fruits with the ouster of Tunisia's leader, Zine El-Abidine Ben Al.

A momentous 12 months have seen profound changes throughout so much of the rest of the Arab world, but with thousands of protesters dead and bloody confrontations continuing, most notably in Syria, this so-called Spring has sometimes seemed more like a long and harsh winter.

This is not, however, to dismiss the achievements of populations that have demanded and won a real say in their futures. Tunisia held its first democratic election in October and chose the moderate Islamist Ennahda party as the largest single group in its constituent assembly. By next October, this body must draw up a new constitution, upon which Tunisians will vote, and then vote again to elect a new Parliament. Ambitious though this timetable is, it reflects the country's rapid pace of change.

Inspired by Tunisia, the people of Egypt were next to challenge their seemingly entrenched leadership. Hosni Mubarak endured three days of demonstrations, then sent in police and troops to quell the protests. A fortnight later he resigned when the generals declined to risk ordering their largely conscript army to crush the revolt. But as everyone in Egypt is well aware, the break is not as clear-cut as happened in Tunisia. The military has been the arbiters of political power ever since the 1952 revolution, and for the moment they firmly remain so. Inevitably, the military council, led by Gen. Hussein Tantawi, has inevitably attracted fresh protests because of the slow pace of reforms and fears that the military will not relinquish its privileged economic and social role. Thus Egypt's revolution appears still to be work in progress.

Significantly, though, in the elections that have taken place so far, the Egyptians have voted in the same way as the Tunisians. They too have opted for Islamist parties. The Muslim Brotherhood, which is indeed linked to Tunisia's Ennahda, has emerged as the leading party. Likewise in Morocco's elections in November, following constitutional reforms there, the local version of the Brotherhood also leads the field. So, despite all the comments this past year that each of the countries being shaken by the Arab Spring was different and that the results in each would therefore be different- that Tunisia was not Egypt, Libya not Yemen, and so forth - a political consensus, in fact, has built up across the region. Given the chance to express their views, the peoples of Tunisia, Morocco and Egypt have spoken with the same voice and said they want Islam to be fully part of their countries’ political life.

It should not be a surprise; these are Muslim counties. But it has come as a surprise, not only to the West, but to many in the Arab world as well. The lesson, then, is that no one should ignore a country's culture and traditions, of which faith constitutes a crucial part.

It may well be the same in Libya, although there, after the six-month rebellion put an end to the 42-year dictatorship of Muammar Qaddafi, and to him as well, the revolution has been altogether more decisive. The regime was swept away entirely. However, the National Transitional Council led by Mustafa Abdul Jalil has set itself formidable challenges. This June there are supposed to be elections to a Public National Conference, which will then appoint an interim government and a constituent authority, which in turn must draft a new constitution within 60 days. The challenge here is not simply to organize the elections, but also to persuade victorious militia groups to disband or join the regular police and army.

The tragedy of Syria continues. All eyes will be on Sunday's meeting of the Arab League, when the patchy progress of the monitor mission will be reviewed and consideration given to a further toughening of the Arab world's stance against the Assad regime.

The revolt in Yemen has not yet been marked by success but rather by confusion and instability. Ali Abdullah Saleh may have stepped down last November in favor of his deputy, but there are now real concerns that presidential elections slated for Feb. 21 may not be able to go ahead, because of widespread unrest. Bitter tribal rivalries and divisions among the security forces have produced a dangerous power vacuum, in which militants allied to Al-Qaeda have prospered. Last week they seized the town of Radda in Al-Baydah province, extending their control from the neighboring province of Abyan, where last year they captured the provincial capital Zinjibar along with the town of Jaar.

Elsewhere, however, largely peaceful protests in Oman and Jordan and, as noted, Morocco have led to rapid political reforms. These have boosted the power of parliaments to give voters a greater say in the running of their countries.

With the exception of Bahrain, where bitter inter-communal protest has been fomented by Iran, which has also sought to stir up trouble in our own Eastern Province, the member countries of the Gulf Cooperation Council have all seen the benefits of assured stability and economic prosperity.

Looking back on this momentous year - 2011 will surely go down in history as the Year of Arab Revolutions - two themes thus appear. One is a popular call in a number of countries for moderate Islamist parties, specifically the Muslim Brotherhood, to hold the reins of government. The other is the uncertainty that has come in the wake of the Arab Spring. There is uncertainty in Yemen, in Syria, in Libya, and even in Tunisia and Egypt despite the political progress. There is uncertainty too in countries less affected by the upheavals of 2011 - in Iraq, in what remains of Sudan, even in Algeria. The challenge lies in the poverty and lack of opportunity, which gave birth to the revolutions in the first place. This is particularly true of Tunisia and Egypt. Democracy by itself will not fix privation.

The rest of the developed world, including the GCC which stands out as an island of stability in a regional sea of uncertainty, must now give productive economic support and investment to these struggling economies.

Dipetik dari - Arab News

Dispute over oil rich islands in South China Sea could escalate into 'state-on-state conflict', U.S. admiral warns

By Wil Longbottom
Last updated at 4:43 PM on 18th January 2012

The U.S. Navy's top commander in the Pacific has said disputes over oil rich waters in the South China Sea could blow up into serious military confrontations.

Admiral Patrick Walsh said a diplomatic row between six Asian nations over the Spratly Islands could escalate into a 'state-on-state conflict' as countries attempt to seize new oil resources.

The South China Sea - which is heavily travelled by shipping companies, including tankers transporting oil from the Persian Gulf - is vital to the Asia-Pacific region.

Adm Walsh said there was potential for an incident to intensify, in the same way tensions between China and Japan spiked after two of their ships collides near the disputed Senkaku and Diaoyu islands in 2010.

'Quickly the event escalated from something that was local, containable, manageable, to something that became a state-on-state sort of conflict.

'No matter which perspective you adopt, it's (the South China Sea) critically important for security and stability. It is the critical node to all the economic activity.

'Any interruption there would create a real problem.'

The disputed Spratly Islands are made up of more than 750 individual islands, with a total surface area of less than two square miles.

The group of islands is spread over a 164,093 square miles area off the coasts of the Philippines and Sabah in Malaysian Borneo. None of them have any native population, although some have military personnel in bases.

The six Asian nations - Brunei, China, Malaysia, the Philippines, Taiwan and Vietnam - claim all or part of the islands. 18th and 19th century maps from China and Vietnam both claim the islands as part of their territory.

There have been various recriminations between the nations over competing claims in recent years.

In May last year, Chinese naval vessels fired on Vietnamese fishing vessels near East London Reef and Cross Island.

The Philippines and Vietnam have accused Chinese vessels of repeatedly intruding into areas they claim and of trying to sabotage oil explorations in their territorial waters.

China has denied the allegations, saying it has sovereignty over the South China Sea.

And in June 2011, the Philippines renamed the South China Sea and the Reed Bank the West Philippine Sea and the Recto Bank.

Two years ago, Japan arrested the Chinese captain of a fishing vessel after it collided with one of its coast guard ships on patrol.

In retaliation, Beijing suspended ministerial-level contacts with Tokyo and postponed talks on the joint development of undersea natural gas fields.

It later halted Japan-bound exports of rare earth metals used in high-tech manufacturing.

Adm Walsh added: 'Just how quickly that escalated - it inflamed passions on both sides. That's my concern.'

He is due to retire and hand over the Pacific Fleet command to Vice Admiral Cecil Haney on Friday.

The islands are thought to have large oil and gas reserves around them, but they area also areas of rich biodiversity and wildlife, home to endangered species including sharks and turtles.

SIMMERING TENSIONS OVER OIL

• Originally, China claimed to have incorporated the islands in around 200 BC.


• But the modern history of the area began when Japan held the Spratly Islands during the Second World War, but left after surrendering.


• During the 1960s and 1970s, The Philippines and South Vietnam took control of several islands.


• China and Malaysia also began claiming some of the islands in the late 1970s.


• By the mid 1980s, China and Vietnam were clashing over some of the disputed islands, but the 1989 outrage in Tiananmen Square forced China to back down.


• All six Asian nations agreed the Manila declaration to avoid conflict in the area in 1992 and a similar move was extended in 2002.


• By 2005, Vietnam, China and The Philippines sign an accord to protect oil and gas in the region.


• But by last year, tensions are again raised after a series of stand offs between rival navy or other shipping. The Philippines and Vietnam have both accused China of attempting to sabotage oil exploration work in the area.

Dipetik dari - Mail Online

Lagi posting berkaitan,
--> Philippines ready to validate claim to Spratlys in UN forum
--> Manila protests Chinese ships' presence in Spratlys

Kg Ayer revival planned as part of BSB Master Plan

Low Leng May
BANDAR SERI BEGAWAN

Wednesday, January 18, 2012

KAMPONG Ayer will be turned into a revived centre of Bruneian heritage, as part of a project in the Bandar Seri Begawan Development Master Plan, an officer from the Municipal Department said.

At the civic course for undergraduates, Municipal Department administrative officer, Shahminan Hj Tengah, presented an overview of projects in store or in the pipeline to be implemented in the capital.

As an initiative to revive the water village, multiple projects have been planned to enhance the cultural features and improve the development and structure of the Bruneian landmark. This is done with the aim of turning the capital into a "livable city" with a "uniquely Bruneian identity" and "sustainable economic community" Shahminan said in the presentation.

Currently being proposed into the project were a Heritage Boutique Resort, Mangrove Spa Resort, Artist Village and Studios, a neighbourhood centre, and Tamoi Craft Centre among others.

Shahminan revealed in the presentation that there were also talks on reviving a floating market, developing a new technical college and a Kampong Ayer Hill Park.

"Kampong Ayer is our national heritage. At the moment, its state is deteriorating not only in terms of safety, but other aspects also," he told The Brunei Times in an interview.

"We want to make it a proper designing and allocation and everything so that it will be sustainable and will not die just like that."

He added that negotiations are currently under way with private sectors on a Public Private Partnership (PPP) to handle the projects.

"We expect that (the entire plan) to be materialised, done before 2035. We are providing the roadmap to the interested agencies for proposal," he said.

Another major project under the BSB Master Plan is the Airport Hub, which will see retail streets and areas of commerce being located near the Brunei International Airport vicinity to boost the country's tourism.

In the proposal for the Airport Hub project are an international trade centre, hotels, riverfront residential clusters and a new mosque, among others.

A light rail extension is also being proposed to connect the retail clusters to the airport.

The Serusop Educational District and the Welfare Sports Complex will also be located within the Airport Hub.

According to Shahminan, the Master Plan to develop the capital began in 2007 and is currently still in its "infant stage". He expressed hope for members of the public to contribute to the planning by giving suggestions and feedback to improve the current plans.

"Our Master Plan is a roadmap, the implementations can be altered and adjusted to the current requirements. With public feedback, we can outline it the proper way," he said.

Dipetik dari - The Brunei Times

Menyingkap kembali Manifesto NDP 1427H/2006M - 1437H/2016M, berikut merupakan antara syor NDP di bawah bahagian Pembangunan Bandar dan Alam Sekitar:

• Meningkatkan imej dan konsep Kampung Ayer dengan kemudahan rumah tumpangan dan perhotelan, bank dan premis perniagaan, dan mengikis imej orang tidak bertanah dan miskin dan menjadikannya kawasan tarikan pelancong dan peniaga sebagai mercu tanda keunikan Negara Brunei Darussalam;


• Menjadikan Kampung Ayer sebagai pusat perdagangan. Sudah ratusan tahun konsep satu kampung satu produk diamalkan di Kampung Ayer. Umpamanya Kampung Saba adalah pengeluar bahan makanan laut, Kampung Lorong Sikuna adalah pengeluar tenunan songket yang popular. Kampung Pandai Besi adalah pengeluar produk dari bahan logam seperti parang dan pisau. Kampung Burong Pingai sebagai pengeluar makanan kuih-muih tradisional dan Kampung Sungai Kedayan sebagai pengeluar produk perak dan emas. Justeru itu, Parti Pembangunan menyeru supaya dikaji kemungkinan konsep ini dapat dihidupkan semula dan diberi nafas baru. Ia bukan saja mampu menjana ekonomi pengusaha tempatan tetapi juga boleh menjadi tarikan pelancong yang unik di dunia;


• Mengatasi masalah sampah tempatan secara amnya, dan pencemaran terutamanya di Kampong Ayer di mana usaha selama ini masih belum mencapai tahap yang memuaskan;

Bahrain's king announces reforms

DUBAI: Bahrain's king announced constitutional amendments on Sunday giving Parliament more powers of scrutiny over government, but the opposition said they fell far short of demands for democracy that have driven a year of unrest in the Gulf state.

The amendments, which increase powers to question and remove ministers and withdraw confidence in the Cabinet, emerged from a national dialogue King Hamad bin Isa Al-Khalifa organized last year after an uprising.

The main opposition party Wefaq withdrew from the dialogue, saying it did not go far enough to offer real reform.

The king, in a televised speech Sunday said: "Our people have proven their desire for continuing with reforms ... We complete the march today with those who have an honest patriotic desire for more progress and reform.

"I must mention here that democracy is not just constitutional and legislative rules, it is a culture and practice and adhering by the law and respecting international human rights principles," he said.

"I beseech all sectors of society to work together so that all their sons adhere to the law..."

The changes outlined by the king also limit some royal authority.

The king would have to issue more explanations on the selection process for the Shoura Council, the 40-member upper house of Parliament that is appointed by the monarch. The king also would need wider discussions with political and judicial leaders before any decision to dissolve the elected Parliament and call new elections.

"This reflects a denial of the demands for better representation for Bahrainis and a fair judiciary," said Wefaq official Matar Matar, noting the reforms could have been effected via legislation rather than constitutional changes. "It ignores previous promises from the crown prince on a government that represents the people."

Dipetik dari - Arab News

TINDAKAN DISIPLIN SATU TARBIAH

IDRIS AHMAD
12 Januari 2012

Apabila kita mengisi borang sebagai ahli Parti Islam Se-Malaysia (PAS) kita telah berjanji untuk mematuhi perintah dan arahan parti selagi ia tidak bertentangan dengan Islam. Janji ini merupakan lumrah kepada mana-mana organisasi. Begitu juga apabila kita bekerja di sektor swasta atau awam tetap mempunyai disiplin dan peraturan yang perlu dipatuhi jika mahu berkerja di tempat ini. Perkara yang sama kita sebagai seorang muslim sudah pun digariskan oleh Nabi SAW sebagai panduan disiplin dengan agama kita yang tidak boleh dirungkai daripada diri kita. Tidak ada makhluk yang bernama manusia hidup tanpa peraturan dan disiplin. Sekiranya manusia hidup tanpa disiplin, maka dunia akan haru hara. Lebih-lebih lagi sebagai sebuah parti yang hendak mendaulatkan Islam dan mempunyai cabaran yang begitu besar perlu mempunyai disiplin yang ketat supaya tidak ada gangguan untuk mencapai matlamatnya.

Banyak kisah-kisah yang dipaparkan di dalam sirah Nabi SAW yang boleh menjadi teladan kepada kita. Oleh itu tindakan disiplin adalah sebahagian daripada tarbiah di dalam jamaah.

Contoh yang berlaku tindakan disiplin kepada tiga orang sahabat Nabi SAW yang tidak menyertai perang Tabuk. Mereka ialah Kaab bin Malik, Murarah bin Rabi’ah Al-Amiri dan Hilal bin Umayah Al-Waqifi. Mereka ini adalah antara lapan puluh orang yang tidak pergi berperang di Tabuk. Rasulullah tidak menerima keuzuran mereka bertiga, manakala yang lain baginda menerima dari alasan mereka.

Menurut Kaab bin Malik beliau tidak pernah ponteng di dalam setiap kali berperang, tetapi di dalam perang Tabuk beliau merasa malas hendak menyertai, walaupun beliau mempunyai kelengkapan yang cukup melebihi daripada keterlibatan beliau berperang di medan yang lain. Oleh kerana godaan nafsu dunia maka beliau tidak berangkat bersama dengan nabi SAW. Beliau menyangka baginda tidak tahu, sangkaan beliau meleset kerana baginda terus bertanya beliau ketika di Tabuk.

Apabila baginda pulang daripada Tabuk, maka Kaab pergi berjumpa dengan Rasulullah SAW di masjid untuk meminta maaf, maka baginda suruh beliau balik sehingga mendapat pengampunan daripada Allah SWT. Baginda mengarahkan jangan berurusan dengan mereka bertiga, ertinya mereka dipulau oleh orang Islam di Madinah. Baginda sendiri tidak melayan dan menegur Kaab. Dua orang sahabat yang lain hanya tinggal di dalam rumah dan menangis serta memohon keampunan daripada Allah SWT.

Pada suatu hari ada utusan Raja Ghassan daripada Syam datang membawa surat daripada untuk memujuk Kaab bin Malik ke Syam kerana sahabat dan saudara mereka tidak perlukan beliau lagi. Maka Kaab mengambil surat itu lalu dibakar kerana ini adalah ajakan syaitan dan iblis supaya beliau meninggalkan Islam.

Masuk hari yang ke empat puluh maka datang satu utusan menyuruh mereka menjauhkan isteri mereka. Maka Kaab menyuruh isterinya pulang ke pangkuan keluarga sehinggalah datang pengampunan daripada Allah SWT. Oleh kerana Hilal bin Umaiyah sangat tua dan lemah maka isterinya datang bertemu Rasulullah SAW lalu ia bertanya, “Ya Rasulullah, sebenarnya Hilal bin Umaiyah seorang yang sangat tua, lagi pula ia tidak memiliki seorang pembantu. Adakah boleh aku melayaninya di rumah?”

Rasulullah SAW menjawab, “Tidak! Akan tetapi ia tidak boleh mendekatimu!”

Isteri Hilal menjelaskan, “Ya Rasulullah! Ia sudah tidak bersemangat pada yang itu lagi. Demi Allah, yang dilakukannya hanya menangisi dosanya sejak saat itu hingga kini!”. Maka Rasulullah tetap tidak benarkan.

Selama lima puluh hari lima puluh malam pemulauan berlaku terhadap mereka bertiga, selepas waktu subuh datang utusan daripada baginda SAW memberi tahu bahawa Allah SWT telah mengampunkan mereka bertiga.

Mendengar berita itu Kaab terus sujud syukur kepada Allah.

Ketika aku mengucapkan salam kepada Rasulullah, mukanya nampak cerah dan gembira, katanya “Bergembiralah kau pada hari ini! Inilah hari yang paling baik bagimu sejak kamu dilahirkan oleh ibumu!”

“Apakah dari Allah ataukah dari engkau ya Rasulullah?” tanyaku sabar.

“Bukan dariku! Pengampunan itu datangnya dari Allah!” jawab Rasul SAW.

Demi Allah, aku belum pernah merasakan besarnya nikmat Allah kepadaku sesudah Dia memberi hidayah Islam kepadaku, lebih besar bagi jiwaku daripada sikap jujurku kepada Rasulullah SAW.”

Kaab lalu membaca ayat pengampunannya itu dengan penuh haru dan syahdu, sementara air matanya berderai membasahi kedua pipinya.

“Dan terhadap tiga orang yang ditangguhkan (penerimaan taubat) mereka, hingga apabila bumi telah menjadi sempit bagi mereka, padahal bumi itu luas, dan jiwa mereka pun telah sempit (pula terasa) oleh mereka, serta telah mengetahui bahwa tidak ada tempat lari dari (siksa) Allah melainkan kepadaNya saja. Kemudian, Allah menerima taubat mereka agar mereka tetap dalam taubatnya. Sesungguhnya Allah-lah Yang Maha menerima taubat lagi Maha Penyayang.” (At-Taubah: 118)

Banyak lagi kisah tindakan disiplin yang dikenakan kepada para sahabat antaranya ialah kepada Hatib Abi Balta’ah yang membocor rahsia mengenai persiapan baginda untuk menyerang Makkah kepada kaum keluarganya di Makkah. Beliau selamat daripada hukuman kerana Hatib ialah ahli Badar. Begitu juga dengan Abu Lubabah ibn Munzir yang diamanahkan oleh Rasulullah SAW untuk berunding dengan Bani Quraizah yang sudah dikepung selama dua puluh lima hari. Apabila Abu Lubabah sampai mereka meminta pandangan apakah kamu berpedapat lebih baik kami mengikut hukum Muhammad? Abu Lubabah mengatakan: Ya. Kemudian dia mengisyaratkan tangan dan tengkuknya, yakni menunjukkan mereka akan disembelih. Apabila beliau menyedari beliau telah mengkhianat amanah Rasulullah maka beliau mengikat badan beliau di masijid selama enam hari sehinggalah datang pengampunan daripada Allah SWT, bermaksud:

“Dan (ada pula) orang-orang lain yang mengakui dosa-dosa mereka yang bercampur baur pekerjaan yang baik dengan pekerjaan lain yang buruk. Mudah-mudahan Allah menerima taubat mereka. Sesungguhnya Allah maha pengampun lagi Maha Penyayang” (al-Taubah 9:102)

Pernah berlaku kepada seorang aktivis PAS di Pasir Salak Perak yang telah diambil tindakan oleh jawatankuasa disiplin parti kerana masalah dalaman parti, namun beliau tidak pernah jemu-jemu membantu PAS dan menghadiri program PAS walaupun beliau bukan ahli PAS. Paling menarik rumah beliau telah diadakan ceramah oleh Tuan Guru Haji Abdul Hadi Awang yang merupakan Pengerusi Jawatankuasa Disiplin yang memecat beliau pada ketika itu. Selepas beberapa beliau ditemui meninggal dengan penuh misteri di dalam parit di tanah rancangan Felcra Seberang Perak.

Rumusannya:

1. Tindakan disiplin adalah merupakan sebahagian daripada tarbiah.

2. Mereka yang berjiwa besar akan menganggap ini adalah satu penghormatan dan peluang untuk mereka muhasabah diri

3. Mereka yang dikenakan tindakn disiplin diuji dengan secara praktikal, bukan sahaja teori. Kerana tarbiah ialah amali bukan teori semata-mata.

4. Salah satu cara Allah hendak mengangkat darjat seorang itu di dalam berjamaah.

5. Menguji keikhlasan seorang itu samaada mereka berjuang kerana Allah, bukan kerana jawatan.

6. Tidak rugi apabila kita merendah diri dan rela menerima tindakan dengan hati yang lapang.

7. Allah akan menguji kepada kita sama ada kita akan mengkhianat jamaah atau tidak apabila kita diambil tindakan. Jika Kaab bin Malik dipujuk oleh Raja Ghassan yang kafir, maka kita juga akan dipujuk oleh musuh-musuh PAS yang sentiasa mencari peluang.

8. Contohilah seorang ahli biasa PAS di Pasir Salak walaupun diambil tindakan mereka terus memberikan khidmat kepada PAS.

9. Allah hendak melihat kita bercakap serupa dengan apa yang kita sering ungkap seperti kisah Khalid ibn Walid yang dipecat di zaman Saidina Umar. Beliau terus berjuang walaupun menjadi pengikut biasa.

Dipetik dari - HarakahDaily

Semoga intipati tulisan ini dapat diambil pengajaran dan memberi manfaat kepada warga NDP.

Hj Tawar hopeful to receive aid and rebuild his house

Wardi Buntar
BRUNEI-MUARA

Saturday, January 14, 2012

STILL living under a tent since his house burnt down in November 26, 2011, Kg Kilanas resident Hj Tawar Hj Leman said that he is still waiting for government aid in order to reconstruct his house.

"I just want everything to be back to normal, we have been living under a tent for so long and I am too old to rebuild it on my own," said the 54-year-old.

He explained that he has received a call before from one government agency about renovating back his house but has yet to receive any word about confirming in rebuilding his home.

"Most of my grandchildren and children are scattered among relatives because school has begun and I can't have them living in discomfort," said Hj Tawar.

He mentioned that a total of eight families were living under one roof and living under these conditions was just not appropriate especially for his 10 grandchildren.

"Yes, I was offered a temporary residence but it was a flat, and I had to politely decline because obviously our family size is just too large and how can I move all of our belongings in a small place, but I really appreciate the efforts by other government agencies and neighbours for the aid we receive," said Hj Tawar.

He shared that some government agencies have inspected the burnt house and sent food, his neighbours too have offered clothing and other basic necessities.

"The religious affairs has donated $200 for each member and the children received school supplies and the Sultan Haji Hassanal Bolkiah Fund (YSHHB) has also generously donated $6,800 to our family but it is not enough for me to even rebuild one room," said Hj Tawar.

Under the tent were mattresses, a smaller tent which was supposed to be used for camping and a long table for kitchen utensils.

"We eat and sleep outside but our hopes to build back the house. I don't even mind if we were offered a temporary house because some of my sons and daughters that are working are willing to pay the rent," said Hj Tawar.

Hj Tawar explained that according to the Fire and Rescue Department report; the fire was caused by an electrical fault that came from the second section of the house at the kitchen in the second floor.

"I am happy that none of us were harmed, we just hoped that we can find help or something as we are eight families living under one roof," said Hj Tawar.

The house in the first section had three floors while the second section had two floors. With some furnitures lying around outside the dilapidated house, most of what was left inside were reduced to ashes, other valuables in the house were also burned.

Dipetik dari - The Brunei Times

Arab Awakenings - Part 1: Strategy and reality; promise and delivery

By FATIN BUNDAGJI

On May 17, 2003, in his annual address to the National Consultative Council, the late King Fahd of Saudi Arabia reaffirmed his will to work toward political and economic reform.

"We will work to improve our system of government and the performance of the public sector and broaden popular participation in the political process." During that speech, he called for the widening of women's participation in the political, economic, social, cultural and educational fields, and for reinforcing their rights and status in society; and the importance of promoting the family and the need to protect Arab youth.

The same year, the then Crown Prince Abdullah presented a bold initiative entitled the "Charter to Reform the Arab Position." In it he proposed measures to bring about more democratization in the Arab world as a means to promote peace and stability in the region. Regionally and locally Saudi Arabia was aware of the obvious fact that the prerequisites to political stability are social equality, civic engagement, and good governance.

Following that in 2005, during the Third Extraordinary Session of the Islamic Summit Conference, the global Muslim community reiterated the above-mentioned Saudi political intentions in the OIC's "Ten-Year Program of Action to Meet the Challenges Facing the Muslim Ummah in the 21st Century." The Plan of Action states in Article VIII and under the title, "Human Rights and Good Governance" that: "Muslim states need to seriously endeavor to enlarge the scope of political participation, ensure equality, civil liberties and social justice and to promote transparency and accountability, and eliminate corruption in the OIC Member States."

It seems as it were, that all our leaders were aware that the "The Muslim World faced grave political, socioeconomic, cultural and scientific challenges with implications for its unity, peace, security and development" and as such, a unified strategy was the only safeguard against such a calamity.

Going from the global Muslim community to the local Saudi one, I have to justifiably admit that several initiatives have borne to bear in Saudi Arabia as a means to achieve the above ambitious statements. Cases in point are the Saudi National 5-Year Development Plans. Ever since the 70s, the Kingdom has systematically used these plans to road-map its way to development, modernization, peace and stability. But insofar as results, these ongoing plans (9 to date) have yet to prove their success in realistically achieving what they proclaim to do.

From a citizen's perspective, and based on the basic assumption claimed by these plans to "improve the standard of living and the quality of life of Saudi citizens," I dare to ask the burning question: As we advance into our 9th Plan, has anyone been tracking the successful accomplishments of the former 8? If yes, then why the deep divide between what is strategically designed on paper and what is realistically being achieved on the ground?

The achievements of former plans may be many. No one can deny that Saudi Arabia has grown from a desert land to a seemingly modern high-tech nation. The growth of major cities, the creation of hospitals, schools, and public utilities may all indicate visible achievements - but also by comparison, they highlight major shortcomings as a result of short-sight during the planning process.

Equitable development is mentioned in several of the plans but achieved by none so far - the fact that chronic migration from rural areas to major cities is still ongoing; the fact that we are still trying to build the basic infrastructure that should have been in place 40 years ago; the fact that we are still trying to figure out ways to diversify our economic base as a means to reduce our dependency on oil; the fact that we are still stuck in the field of privatization and unemployment reduction... all these prove that our National Planning Process was never accurately estimated nor strategically designed.

2012 is a year of change. In 2011, we witnessed the "Arab Spring." However, a "spring" it was not; for it was not an innocent birth; instead the events of 2011 are the fermentation of long brewing consequences. The fast growing chaos we are witnessing today is nothing more than the natural outcome of a people demanding for a better quality of life for themselves and their families... a basic right, promised to them by their leaderships and officially communicated in 2006 during the OICs Summit in Makkah.

A promise the payback time of which has come.

Dipetik dari - Arab News

Philippines ready to validate claim to Spratlys in UN forum

By Jerry E. Esplanada

The Philippines is prepared to validate its claim to the Spratlys and other territories in the West Philippine Sea under the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (Unclos) and is inviting China to do the same with its own claims, according to Foreign Secretary Albert del Rosario.

All conflicting claims should be resolved based on the rules-based regime of the Unclos if the disputes in the West Philippine Sea (South China Sea) are to be peacefully and finally settled, Del Rosario said in a press statement Tuesday.

The foreign secretary was reacting to a Chinese foreign ministry statement which dismissed as “groundless” the Philippines’ claims that the Chinese Navy had entered Philippine waters.

‘Groundless’

China “will not accept the groundless accusations from the Philippines side,” said Chinese foreign ministry spokesperson Liu Weinin, who added that he “[hoped] the Philippines will not create something from nothing and cause disturbances.”

In his statement, Del Rosario said the Philippines considered “our valuable and long-standing friendship with China to be one that is based on mutual respect and equality.”

“The Philippines prepared to validate our claims under Unclos and we cordially invite China to join us in endeavoring to validate its claims,” he said.

China, the Philippines and four other claimant Asian countries have been locked in a tense dispute over potentially oil- and gas-rich areas in the Spratly island chain.

Escoda Shoal

The Philippines and Vietnam have separately accused Chinese vessels of repeatedly intruding into Spratlys areas under their control and sabotaging oil explorations in their regular territorial waters in the first six months of last year.

In the latest flaring of tensions, the Philippines last weekend protested to Beijing the alleged intrusion of three Chinese Navy ships near the Sabina (Escoda) Shoal on December 11 and 12.

Escoda Shoal lies within the Philippines’ internationally recognized 200-mile exclusive economic zone (EEZ) and is “within Philippine sovereignty and maritime jurisdiction,” Del Rosario said.

However, China claims all of the South China Sea, including the entire Spratlys island chain.

Insisting that the Escoda Shoal lay within its territory, China said it saw nothing wrong with the passage of three Chinese vessels near the sandbar in the West Philippine Sea, said the Department of Foreign Affairs (DFA).

According to DFA spokesperson Raul Hernandez, the Chinese charge d’affaires in Manila had “verbally said that Sabina Shoal has a Chinese name and is within their territorial jurisdiction.”

Hernandez did not say what the foreign office planned to do next after it filed a diplomatic protest against the latest intrusion by Chinese ships into the country’s EEZ.

Del Rosario called the Chinese intrusions “clear violations of the 2002 Association of Southeast Asian Nations-China Declaration on the Conduct of Parties in the South China Sea, as well as the United Nations Convention on the law of the Sea.”

Dipetik dari - Inquirer Global Nation

Posting berkaitan --> Manila protests Chinese ships' presence in Spratlys

Now is 'the golden opportunity to craft peace accord': Manila

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Manila protests Chinese ships' presence in Spratlys

Jan 8 (Reuters) - The Philippines accused China of intruding into its "maritime jurisdiction" after three Chinese ships were spotted last month in disputed areas in the South China Sea, the Department of Foreign Affairs said on Sunday.

China, the Philippines, Brunei, Malaysia, Vietnam and Taiwan have conflicting claims in the Spratlys, an area believed to contain huge deposits of oil and gas in the South China Sea.

A Philippine foreign ministry statement said it had summoned the Chinese embassy's charge d'affaires on Thursday to convey "its serious concerns over recent actions of the People's Republic of China in the West Philippine Sea".

Manila refers to the South China Sea as West Philippine Sea to strengthen its claims on parts of the Spratlys. Philippine troops occupy nine islands and shoals in the Spratlys.

Citing reports from the defence and military establishments, the foreign ministry said two Chinese vessels and a Chinese navy warship were seen around Sabina shoal in the Spratlys on December 11 and 12, respectively.

"These intrusions of the Chinese are clear violations of the 2002 ASEAN-China Declaration on the Conduct of Parties (DOC) in the South China Sea as well as the provision of the United Nations Convention of the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS)," the foreign ministry said.

Sabina shoal is around 124 nautical miles from the western island of Palawan and is within "Philippine sovereignty and maritime jurisdiction".

In May 2011, Manila accused China of intrusions into its territory, citing six instances, including one in March when two Chinese patrol boats tried to ram a survey ship.

The disputed ownership of oil-rich reefs and islands in the South China Sea, through which $5 trillion in trade sails annually, is one of the biggest security threats in Asia.

Beijing says it has historical sovereignty over the South C000hina, superseding claims of other countries.

Dipetik dari - Reuters

Africa eyes nervously Arab Spring's effects

By DAVID KODE

THE Arab awakening, with its inspiring uprisings and historic elections (most recently in Tunisia and Egypt) has been seen by citizens in other African countries as a model of how to instigate change.

So far, it has triggered public demands for similar reforms from several African countries, such as Senegal, Malawi, Uganda and Swaziland.

At the same time, governments throughout Africa are becoming increasingly apprehensive about the influence the North African revolutions may have on their countries. In the immediate aftermath of the Tunisian and Egyptian uprisings, for example, the government of Zimbabwe arrested close to 45 activists and initially charged them with treason for watching videos on the revolutions in Egypt and discussing the implications of these events for Africans. Similar experiences have been highlighted in Malawi, Gabon, Uganda and other African countries.

There is a clear lesson: No matter how repressive a regime may be, it can be toppled by committed citizens. Another lesson of the Arab uprisings for Africa is that people from different political and religious affiliations can converge for a common cause: To demand much-needed reforms. New rulers can replicate such cooperation at the national level by creating governments that include citizens from different spheres in order to improve collaboration, accountability and the manner in which future leaders are elected.

As Zimbabwe moves closer to its next election we may see an increase in repressive acts against civil society, human rights activists and those aligned with the political opposition. But the elections also present an opportunity for citizens to decide who should lead the country using the ballot box rather than violent street protests. Free, fair and transparent elections could provide an alternative to violence and a smooth transition to a new political arrangement.

What is very clear from the uprisings in Libya, Egypt and Tunisia is that the demise of leaders previously seen as "unassailable" presents opportunities and unique challenges. Opportunities are evident in newly-opened democratic space, after decades of civil society working in restrictive environments where elections, when conducted, were merely a facade to legitimize regimes in power. The challenges include: Rebuilding infrastructure destroyed during the revolutions, improving social and economic conditions and preventing an influx of unwanted actors into these newly opened political spaces - including the military or those with hidden agendas.

As observed in the Arab Spring, social media and a collective realization that democratic and political reforms are long overdue present clear opportunities for joint government-citizen partnerships. But as change occurs, we must beware of replicating past experiences in Africa. We should not forget about new rulers who took over when old governments were replaced and soon forgot the cautionary tales of their comrades and are now no different from the regimes they overthrew.

With the benefit of hindsight, it is time for us to attempt a completely new model of governance. This will entail empowering citizens and providing them with more responsibilities - using a model in which governments and civil society act as partners, both holding each other accountable. After all, a commendable aspect of the Egyptian struggle was that, in the midst of the mayhem of the revolution, security and some basic services continued to be provided to citizens by other citizens.

The Arab Spring has clearly portrayed the need for a paradigm shift in which power is decentralized and citizens are allowed to participate actively in shaping their destiny.

Dipetik dari - Arab News

Superyachts - Motor Yacht Dubai

Launched in 2006 by Platinum Yachts, Dubai is the world’s second largest private yacht, measuring 162 metres. Dubai’s incredible size is disguised by the elegant lines of her steel hull and aluminium superstructure – the work of renowned designer Andrew Winch. Her stunning interior was designed by Platinum Yachts.

The construction of this megayacht began for Prince Jefri Bolkiah of Brunei more than 10 years before the yacht’s launch. The construction, then a joint project between Blohm + Voss and Lurssen shipyards, was halted until 2001 when the hull was acquired by Platinum Yachts for His Highness Sheik Mohammed Rashid al-Maktoum. The project, previously named Platinum, Panhandle and Golden Star, was renamed Dubai.

--> Baca seterusnya - http://www.superyachts.com/motor-yacht-2611/dubai.htm

Report warns of heightened risk of new recession

On 17 January, the World Economic Situation and Prospects 2012 (WESP) will be launched in multi-city locations around the world. The first chapter of the report on the “Global economic outlook”, pre-released on 1 December 2011, reveals that persistent high unemployment, the euro area debt crisis and premature fiscal austerity have already slowed global growth and factor into the possibility of a new recession.

The forecast has been significantly downgraded compared to six months ago and predicts that the global economy will “muddle through” with the growth of world gross product (WGP) reaching 2.6 per cent in the baseline outlook for 2012 and 3.2 per cent for 2013, down from 4.0 per cent in 2010.

2012 is projected to be a make-or-break year in terms of proceeding with slow economic recovery or falling back into recession. “Failure of policymakers, especially those in Europe and the United States, to address the jobs crisis and prevent sovereign debt distress and financial sector fragility from escalating, poses the most acute risk for the global economy in the outlook for 2012-2013,” states the report.

“The developed economies are on the brink of a downward spiral enacted by four weaknesses that mutually reinforce each other: sovereign debt distress, fragile banking sectors, weak aggregate demand and policy paralysis caused by political gridlock and institutional deficiencies.”

Slower growth in developed countries affects developing countries

Developing countries and economies in transition are expected to continue to stoke the engine of the world economy, growing on average by 5.4 per cent in 2012 and 5.8 per cent in 2013. This is well below the pace of 7.1 per cent achieved in 2010. And even as economic ties among developing countries strengthen, they remain vulnerable to economic conditions in the developed economies. From the second quarter of 2011, economic growth in most developing countries and economies in transition started to slow notably.

Persistent high unemployment in the US at a rate of more than 9 per cent and low wage growth are further holding back aggregate demand and, together with the prospect of prolonged depressed housing prices, this has heightened risks of a new wave of home foreclosures, especially in the US.

Growth in the euro zone has slowed considerably since the beginning of 2011 and the collapse in confidence displayed by a wide variety of leading indicators and measures of economic sentiment suggest a further slowing ahead. Even with an optimistic assumption that the debt crisis can be contained within a few countries, growth is expected to be only marginally positive in the euro area for 2012.

Japan was in another recession in the first half of 2011, caused largely, but not exclusively, by the disasters of the March earthquake. Among the major developing countries, growth in China and India is expected to remain robust, however. Brazil and Mexico are expected to suffer more visible economic slowdown. Low-income countries have experienced only a mild slowdown.

A 64 million jobs deficit

The rate of unemployment averaged 8.3 per cent in developed countries in 2011, still above the pre-crisis level of 5.8 per cent recorded in 2007. Almost 1/3 of the unemployed in developed countries had been without a job for more than one year, affecting about 15 million workers. Prolonged unemployment tends to have long-lasting detrimental impacts on both the affected workers and the economy at large, as skills of unemployed workers deteriorate, leading to lower earnings for affected individuals and lower productivity growth.

In developing countries, the employment recovery has been much stronger. For instance, unemployment rates are back to pre-crisis levels or below in most Asian developing countries and in Latin America employment has recovered in most countries. However, developing countries continue to face major challenges owing to the high shares of workers that are underemployed, poorly paid, have vulnerable job conditions and lack access to any form of social security. At the same time, open unemployment rates remain high, at well over 10 per cent in urban areas.

The UN estimates that there was an employment deficit of 64 million jobs worldwide in 2011. This is the number of jobs needed in order to restore pre-crisis employment levels and absorb the new labour entrants.

Fiscal austerity part of the problem

The harsh fiscal austerity measures implemented in developed countries and elsewhere in response to relatively high levels of fiscal deficit and public debt are further weakening growth and employment prospects, making fiscal adjustment and repairing financial sector balance sheets more challenging.

The sovereign debt crises in a number of European countries worsened in the second half of 2011 and further weakened the balance sheets of banks sitting on these assets. Even bold steps by the Governments of the euro zone countries to reach an orderly sovereign debt workout for Greece were met with continued financial market turbulence and heightened concerns of debt default in some of the larger economies in the euro zone; Italy in particular.

The possibility of failure of the bipartisan “supercommittee” of the US Congress to reach agreement on medium-term budget cuts was already contemplated in the baseline assumptions of the UN forecast. Downside risks have heightened, however, in particular what could happen with regard to two stimulus measures expiring on 1 January 2012, namely, the 2 per cent payroll tax cut and emergency unemployment benefits. If not extended, GDP growth in the US would slow further in 2012.

The EU and the US form the two largest economies in the world and they are deeply intertwined. Their problems could easily feed into each other and spread into another global recession. Developing countries, which had rebounded strongly from the global recession of 2009, would be hit through trade and financial channels.

More vigorous, concerted policy responses needed

Existing national policies and the Cannes Action Plan of the G20 do not add up to a scenario of stronger employment growth and do not sufficiently address the downside risks.

The WESP calls on developed country governments not to embark prematurely on fiscal austerity policies given the still fragile state of the recovery and prevailing high levels of unemployment. Even with high levels of public indebtedness, many countries still enjoy very low borrowing costs and have fiscal space left for additional fiscal stimulus.

The report further recommends more forceful international coordination of additional stimulus measures across countries and refocused policies to stimulate more direct job creation and investment in infrastructure, energy efficiency and sustainable energy supply, and food security, paving the way for unwinding indebtedness and enacting needed structural reforms over the medium run.

Dipetik dari - DESA News - United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs