It is now a full year since the Arab Spring produced its first fruits with the ouster of Tunisia's leader, Zine El-Abidine Ben Al.
A momentous 12 months have seen profound changes throughout so much of the rest of the Arab world, but with thousands of protesters dead and bloody confrontations continuing, most notably in Syria, this so-called Spring has sometimes seemed more like a long and harsh winter.
This is not, however, to dismiss the achievements of populations that have demanded and won a real say in their futures. Tunisia held its first democratic election in October and chose the moderate Islamist Ennahda party as the largest single group in its constituent assembly. By next October, this body must draw up a new constitution, upon which Tunisians will vote, and then vote again to elect a new Parliament. Ambitious though this timetable is, it reflects the country's rapid pace of change.
Inspired by Tunisia, the people of Egypt were next to challenge their seemingly entrenched leadership. Hosni Mubarak endured three days of demonstrations, then sent in police and troops to quell the protests. A fortnight later he resigned when the generals declined to risk ordering their largely conscript army to crush the revolt. But as everyone in Egypt is well aware, the break is not as clear-cut as happened in Tunisia. The military has been the arbiters of political power ever since the 1952 revolution, and for the moment they firmly remain so. Inevitably, the military council, led by Gen. Hussein Tantawi, has inevitably attracted fresh protests because of the slow pace of reforms and fears that the military will not relinquish its privileged economic and social role. Thus Egypt's revolution appears still to be work in progress.
Significantly, though, in the elections that have taken place so far, the Egyptians have voted in the same way as the Tunisians. They too have opted for Islamist parties. The Muslim Brotherhood, which is indeed linked to Tunisia's Ennahda, has emerged as the leading party. Likewise in Morocco's elections in November, following constitutional reforms there, the local version of the Brotherhood also leads the field. So, despite all the comments this past year that each of the countries being shaken by the Arab Spring was different and that the results in each would therefore be different- that Tunisia was not Egypt, Libya not Yemen, and so forth - a political consensus, in fact, has built up across the region. Given the chance to express their views, the peoples of Tunisia, Morocco and Egypt have spoken with the same voice and said they want Islam to be fully part of their countries’ political life.
It should not be a surprise; these are Muslim counties. But it has come as a surprise, not only to the West, but to many in the Arab world as well. The lesson, then, is that no one should ignore a country's culture and traditions, of which faith constitutes a crucial part.
It may well be the same in Libya, although there, after the six-month rebellion put an end to the 42-year dictatorship of Muammar Qaddafi, and to him as well, the revolution has been altogether more decisive. The regime was swept away entirely. However, the National Transitional Council led by Mustafa Abdul Jalil has set itself formidable challenges. This June there are supposed to be elections to a Public National Conference, which will then appoint an interim government and a constituent authority, which in turn must draft a new constitution within 60 days. The challenge here is not simply to organize the elections, but also to persuade victorious militia groups to disband or join the regular police and army.
The tragedy of Syria continues. All eyes will be on Sunday's meeting of the Arab League, when the patchy progress of the monitor mission will be reviewed and consideration given to a further toughening of the Arab world's stance against the Assad regime.
The revolt in Yemen has not yet been marked by success but rather by confusion and instability. Ali Abdullah Saleh may have stepped down last November in favor of his deputy, but there are now real concerns that presidential elections slated for Feb. 21 may not be able to go ahead, because of widespread unrest. Bitter tribal rivalries and divisions among the security forces have produced a dangerous power vacuum, in which militants allied to Al-Qaeda have prospered. Last week they seized the town of Radda in Al-Baydah province, extending their control from the neighboring province of Abyan, where last year they captured the provincial capital Zinjibar along with the town of Jaar.
Elsewhere, however, largely peaceful protests in Oman and Jordan and, as noted, Morocco have led to rapid political reforms. These have boosted the power of parliaments to give voters a greater say in the running of their countries.
With the exception of Bahrain, where bitter inter-communal protest has been fomented by Iran, which has also sought to stir up trouble in our own Eastern Province, the member countries of the Gulf Cooperation Council have all seen the benefits of assured stability and economic prosperity.
Looking back on this momentous year - 2011 will surely go down in history as the Year of Arab Revolutions - two themes thus appear. One is a popular call in a number of countries for moderate Islamist parties, specifically the Muslim Brotherhood, to hold the reins of government. The other is the uncertainty that has come in the wake of the Arab Spring. There is uncertainty in Yemen, in Syria, in Libya, and even in Tunisia and Egypt despite the political progress. There is uncertainty too in countries less affected by the upheavals of 2011 - in Iraq, in what remains of Sudan, even in Algeria. The challenge lies in the poverty and lack of opportunity, which gave birth to the revolutions in the first place. This is particularly true of Tunisia and Egypt. Democracy by itself will not fix privation.
The rest of the developed world, including the GCC which stands out as an island of stability in a regional sea of uncertainty, must now give productive economic support and investment to these struggling economies.
Dipetik dari - Arab News
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