Russian wrinkle in the South China Sea

By Al Labita

Russian warships in Manila has sparked speculation that Moscow may be angling to wade into the intensifying Spratly Islands dispute in the South China Sea. The warships, including the anti-submarine Admiral Panteleyev, came at a time two American destroyers - the USS Wayne E Meyer and the USS Chafee - dropped anchor off the coasts of Manila and Cebu, respectively.

The ships' presence coincided with renewed tensions between the Philippines and China over their conflicting claims to the potentially oil-and-gas rich Spratlys. Four other Asian countries - Brunei, Taiwan, Malaysia and Vietnam - also lay claim to parts of the Spratlys and areas of the South China Sea that China has claimed as its own.

Philippine officials declined to link the docking of Russia's nuclear-armed vessels to its territorial row with China, claiming the visits were "routine". Avoiding any reference to the Spratlys, the officials justified the docking as part of a bilateral agreement Manila and Moscow signed in December 2009.

That accord, seen as part of Moscow's rivalry with Washington for strategic influence in the Asia-Pacific region, called for an exchange of defense and military delegations between the two countries. Under the accord, both sides also agreed to strengthen bilateral cooperation in tackling threats of terrorism, piracy, and transnational crimes.

"We have an existing memorandum of agreement between our Department of National Defense and the Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation," Philippine Navy spokesperson Lt Col Omar Tonsay said when queried about the Russian ships' arrival.

A Russian envoy in Manila, Nikolay Kudashev, said, "I'm confident that the contacts between our navies reflect our countries' commitment to countering common challenges and threats."

Asked whether Moscow would play a role in easing tensions fueled by the Spratlys row, he said Moscow remained open to such a possibility. "Whenever you need our advice and experience, we will be most welcome to extend it," he told reporters at a Manila port following the arrival of the Russian battleships.

He later clarified that, as much as possible, Moscow would not interfere in the maritime dispute, noting that it is regional in nature. "Naturally, we would not like to interfere or to impose in any way our will upon China and the Philippines. They are both our friends and partners," the Russian envoy said.

Those mixed messages are in sharp contrast with Washington's high-profile stance in the Spratlys dispute. US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton said at an Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) meeting in Hanoi last year that the US had a "national interest" in the area.

The next destination for the Russian warships, which came from the Gulf of Aden on a mission to protect ships from pirate attacks, was unknown when they left port. Russian media on Sunday reported that they were due in Vladivostok that day, citing the fleet's spokesman. They had arrived in Manila on January 31 for the three-day visit.

Analysts said they would likely remain in the vicinity to monitor the upcoming "war games" between US and Philippine involving 1,500 American and Filipino marines. For the first time in years, the joint military exercises will be held near the disputed Spratly islands, a move that could put US and Philippine forces perilously close to a naval confrontation with China.

Though China has not yet reacted to the latest Russian and US twists in its maritime row with the Philippines, some of its hawkish Politburo officials had earlier warned of resorting to force to enforce its "indisputable sovereign" claims to the potentially oil-rich chain of islands and other islets in the vast South China sea. Manila officials, however, said the joint US maneuvers - set to last from March to April this year - will only take place within the Philippine-claimed areas of the Spratlys or within the country's 200-mile (321.8 kilometer) exclusive economic zone.

For the first time, too, the joint exercises will stage a new mode of amphibious training: how to defend and retake an oil and gas platform from imaginary enemies, or "terrorists." China may feel alluded to by such a tag as its patrol vessels have frequently harassed prospecting foreign oil firms and Filipino fishermen in the west Philippine sea, prompting Manila to lodge diplomatic protests.

For instance, Dutch oil multinational Shell has existing drilling operations in Palawan province, particularly in Malampaya, west of Manila. Last month, the company paid US$1.1 billion to the Philippine government in royalties, the bulk of which will apparently be used to bankroll the Armed Forces of the Philippines' (AFP) modernization program.

It is unclear if the presence of Russian ships in the area is linked to any future energy deals Moscow may hope to strike in the Philippines-claimed areas of the South China Sea.

Provocative games

The "war games" with Washington come amid talk that the US plans to ramp up its military presence in the Philippines, including the establishment of a naval outpost in the west Philippine sea to help the AFP ward off repeated intrusions by Chinese naval gunboats. The outpost could house some of the 4,000 American marines the US plans to redeploy on a rotational basis from Okinawa, Japan, to Australia, Hawaii, Guam and the Philippines.

The redeployment, part of Washington's new defense strategy to shift focus from Iraq and Afghanistan to the Asia-Pacific vis-a-vis China's rise as a military power in the region, will be tackled in next month's high-level meeting of senior US and Philippine officials in Manila. US Defense Secretary Leon Panetta and Secretary of State Hillary Clinton are expected to attend the meeting with Philippine Foreign Affairs Secretary Albert del Rosario and Defense Secretary Voltaire Gazmin.

US Assistant Secretary of State for Political and Military Affairs Andrew Shapiro has just ended his three-day visit to Manila to lay the groundwork for next month's meeting of American and Filipino foreign affairs and defense officials. The upcoming meeting will discuss ways on how the US can beef up the Philippines' defense capability vis-a-vis China's aggressiveness in asserting its territorial claims to the Spratlys.

That could mean an expanded US military presence in the Philippines, a highly sensitive political issue after American bases at Subic and Clark were closed amid a wave of nationalism in 2000. Some 600 US Special Forces troops are stationed in the Philippines, helping government security forces battle Islamic militants in strife-torn Mindanao.

Philippines officials have consistently ruled out the reestablishment of US bases, citing the country's constitution which bans the presence of foreign military installations. However, the sense of urgency for external defense amid China's perceived as expansionist tendencies has spurred Manila to turn to Washington for succor short of compromising the anti-bases provision of its laws.

In the second US-Philippines strategic dialogue held in Washington last month, Manila agreed to allow the US to raise the level of its security engagement, an offer which has drawn protests from nationalist and leftist groups. In turn, Washington agreed to Manila's request for a second warship but has so far kept mum on the possible supply of F-16s and other modern armaments.

Similarly, the US also acceded to return the weapons system, communications equipment and other state-of-the art gear it stripped from the Hamilton-class naval cutter it turned over to the AFP late last year. As with the first warship, the second one will be availed of by the Philippines under the US Foreign Military Sales Program, a component of the US-Philippines Mutual Defense Treaty signed in 1951.

Given the paradigm shifts in US-Philippine defense cooperation, it is not surprising that Russia is suddenly flexing their naval muscle in the region. And while Manila looks to Washington for strategic reassurance vis-à-vis Beijing, it has also kept its door open to Moscow and stirred further the South China Sea's troubled waters.

Dipetik dari - Asia Times Online


China landing vessels point to Pacific rivalry

By DAVID LAGUE | REUTERS

As looming budget cuts force the Pentagon to plan for a smaller US navy, China is accelerating the launch of new, increasingly capable warships as part of a sustained drive to become a major maritime power.

Shanghai’s Hudong Zhonghua Shipbuilding Company late last month launched the fourth of China’s new 071 amphibious landing ships according to reports carried by Chinese military websites and the state-controlled media.

While most attention has been drawn to the ongoing sea trials of China’s first aircraft carrier, military analysts say the expanding fleet of 20,000 ton landing ships, the biggest domestically designed and built vessels in the Chinese navy, delivers a far more immediate boost to Beijing’s global influence.

“Having a significant fleet of large amphibious assault vessels clearly suggests a desire for power projection,” says Christian Le Miere, a maritime security researcher at the International Institute for Strategic Studies in London.

“If you want the surgical insertion of forces, for a range of reasons, then you need amphibious response ships.”

China’s naval buildup comes amid mounting maritime tensions in the Asia-Pacific region, which is likely to be one of the main geopolitical stress points in the coming decade.

Military planners previously had focused mainly on a potential conflict in the Taiwan strait. More recently, however, Japan and China have locked horns over islands each claims in the East China Sea; Vietnam, the Philippines and other nations are disputing territorial claims with China over parts of the South China Sea thought to be rich in oil and gas.

The US Navy has announced it will deploy its own new amphibious assault vessels, the Littoral Combat Ships, to the “maritime crossroads” of the Asia-Pacific theater, stationing them in Singapore and perhaps the Philippines.

Xi Jinping, the man destined to become China’s new president later this year, called for enhanced military cooperation between the Pacific powers during a meeting with US Defense Secretary Leon Panetta on Monday in Washington.

Xi, the son of a famous guerrilla commander from the 1930s, also met with President Barack Obama and was treated to a rare show of honors at the Pentagon, including on a 19-gun salute.

But Panetta, alluding to the strains in the relationship, called for more transparency from Beijing about its military build-up.

The Chinese navy is expected to deploy up to eight of the type 071 ships that can carry up to 800 troops, hovercraft, armored vehicles and medium lift helicopters. The first of the class launched in 2006, the Kunlunshan, has already deployed with Chinese naval forces to the Indian Ocean and the pace of construction appears to have quickened with the third and fourth vessels completed within the last five months. And, military commentators and retired Chinese naval officers say, early design work has already started on a bigger, more capable landing ship.

For the Chinese navy, the country’s thriving commercial shipbuilding industry is providing a springboard for further improvements in the size and sophistication of new classes of warships, military experts say. China in 2010 overtook South Korea to become the world’s biggest shipbuilder and industry experts say the leading state-owned shipyards are steadily improving skills and technology with the launch of bigger and more complex oil tankers, container ships and other, more specialized vessels.

Along with more than two decades of rapid growth in military spending, this shipbuilding expertise has transformed the Chinese navy from an obsolete, coastal defense force to a blue water fleet that is expanding its influence into the Pacific and Indian Oceans.

China’s best warships and submarines are now armed with advanced air defense weapons and long range, anti-ship missiles.

In its annual report to Congress on the Chinese military, the Pentagon last year said the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) navy now has about 75 major warships, more than 60 submarines, 55 medium and heavy amphibious ships and about 85 smaller, missile-armed fast attack craft.

As a major trading power with a growing dependence on imported energy and raw materials, this naval expansion is crucial for the country’s security, according to Chinese military planners.

“The safety of China’s personnel, assets and shipping lanes is very important for its economy,” wrote Senior Capt. Wang Xiaoxuan, the director of the PLA’s Naval Research Institute, in the official China Daily newspaper last month. “To guarantee this, it needs a strong navy.”

Military strategists dismiss crude comparisons between navies based on the number of ships alone and most experts agree that the US navy with its 285-strong fleet including 11 aircraft carriers, more than 70 nuclear powered submarines and 22 cruisers remains the world’s overwhelmingly, dominant navy. In size, firepower, integration with other important weapons systems and battle experience, the best US warships enjoy a clear advantage over those of China and most combatants from other navies. However, it is also clear that under the Obama administration’s plan to shave almost $487 billion from the Pentagon budget over the coming decade, the US navy will shrink as China’s fleet continues to grow in size and quality.

To meet its budget target, the US Navy proposes to retire seven cruisers and two amphibious vessels, delay work on new ships and submarines and scrap some programs which could see the fleet shrink to less than 250 ships, according to senior Pentagon officials.

These cuts come as the Obama administration mounts a “pivot” to Asia following the US withdrawal from Iraq and anticipated exit from Afghanistan.

As part of this effort to boost defense cooperation in Asia, the US military is now holding its annual Cobra Gold joint exercises which run until February 17 in Thailand with troops from the host country, Indonesia, Malaysia, Singapore, South Korea and Japan. It will hold joint naval exercises next month with the Philippines near the disputed Spratly islands.

This shift of military firepower to Asia and renewed emphasis on building closer ties with traditional, regional allies is partly aimed at countering the rapid growth of Chinese military muscle.

After more than two decades of double digit growth, the annual expansion of China’s official military outlays dropped to 7.5 percent in 2010 in the aftermath of the global financial crisis but spending bounced back last year with a 12.7 percent increase to $91.5 billion.

Most foreign analysts believe China understates its defense budget.

The Pentagon estimates total Chinese military outlays in 2010 were more than $160 billion which would easily make it the second ranked defense spender behind the US.

The Obama administration is proposing to spend $525 billion on the military in 2013.

For the expanding Chinese navy, the widely publicized deployment of the refurbished, former Ukrainian aircraft carrier, the Varyag, on its sea trials last year was seen as an important milestone in China’s bid to become a major sea power.

However, most Chinese and foreign experts believe it will be years before the carrier will be operationally ready with aircraft, weapons and supporting vessels.

In contrast, military analysts say the amphibious landing ships already provide Beijing the option ofdeploying troops and their equipment in wartime or in response to less serious peacetime contingencies, including operations to protect the more than 800,000 Chinese nationals working overseas.

“In non-combat roles, they are more meaningful than an aircraft carrier,” says Gabe Collins, an Ann Arbor, Michigan-based specialist on maritime affairs for the China SignPost research group.

“They are geared to using choppers, troops, hovercraft and even armoured vehicles. Now they can say: 'We've just had three people kidnapped here, let's go and do something about it'.”

More ominously for smaller regional powers, these ships could also be used to land Chinese troops on disputed territory in the South China Sea, analysts say.

However, it is in so-called “soft power” that the amphibious landing vessels could make their initial contribution as China attempts to reassure regional nations that its growing military might poses no threat.

The Chinese military clearly recognized that the US was able to gain substantial goodwill from its effective response to the 2004 Indian Ocean Tsunami with its aircraft carriers and amphibious assault ships ferrying supplies, medical teams and rescue crews ashore, according to Chinese and Western commentators.

Some analysts believe this experience was a factor in Beijing's decision to launch its first, large, military hospital ship that could be deployed to assist other nations in times of crisis as well as support Chinese amphibious forces in combat.

The hospital ship, launched in 2007, was late last year deployed on a humanitarian medical mission to Latin America and the Caribbean.

Dipetik dari - Arab News

Lagi posting berkaitan,
--> New naval warship completes first patrol mission off Spratlys islands
--> Progressives slam Aquino’s mendicancy, sellout to US imperial interests
--> US, Filipino Forces Plan Drills Near Disputed Area
--> Dispute over oil rich islands in South China Sea could escalate into 'state-on-state conflict', U.S. admiral warns
--> Philippines ready to validate claim to Spratlys in UN forum
--> Manila protests Chinese ships' presence in Spratlys