High income not enough to become developed nation, says Dr M

Simply becoming a high-income nation is no basis for Malaysia to be considered a developed country by 2020, says Tun Dr Mahathir Mohamed.

The former prime minister said that equally important is research and development, as well as the skills that are available in the country, Bernama reported today.

Speaking at a seminar in Cyberjaya today, he said, "Malaysia may not be a developed country by 2020, if its only emphasis is on becoming a high-income nation but it still lags in research and development".

"Malaysia's income is almost reaching that of a developed country but the people's experience and skills are still very much like those of a developing country.

"At the moment... I am afraid. I am not very hopeful that by 2020, Malaysia will be a developed country," Bernama quoted Dr Mahathir as saying.

Giving the example of Brunei, he noted that while it was a high income nation, it was not developed, adding that high income and low productivity would only make the cost of living higher.

"The mindset of Malaysians on research and development (R&D) must be tuned. Malaysians still lack understanding on the importance of R&D and always question the return on investment of R&D."

According to Bernama, Dr Mahathir said that Malaysia was the only developing country which had its own automative industry and developing countries were learning from Malaysia.

Emphasising its importance, the Proton chairman added that the automative industry has the potential to be a catalyst in providing Malaysians skills, knowledge and ability in engineering.

However, he lamented that Proton's share of the car market in Malaysia stood at only 18%.


Sumber - The Malaysian Insider

Bangsamoro, an attempt to redress historical imbalances – retired SC justice

MANILA, Oct. 30  -- ‎Several legal luminaries on Tuesday declared that the proposed Bangsamoro Basic Law is constitutional and emphasized that it should be read within the context of restorative justice and addressing historical injustices.

"‎Bangsamoro is an attempt to redress long historical imbalances," retired Supreme Court Associate Justice Adolfo Azcuna on Tuesday said  during a hearing of the Ad Hoc Committee on the BBL at the House of Representatives, presided by Cagayan de Oro second district Representative Rufus Rodriguez, himself ‎a constitutionalist and former Dean of the San Sebastian College of Law.

Azcuna no‎ted that the BBL provides for the recognition of a "distinct (Bangsamoro) nation within the Philippine state” and this is “not unconstitutional." The former SC justice's statement is in reference to the asymmetric relationship between the central and proposed Bangsamoro governments.

"There has to be rebalancing in order to pay for the long list of injustices," Azcuna said, saying that the asymmetric relationship between the autonomous region and central government is an attempt to address that imbalance.

According to Article VI of the proposed BBL, also known as House Bill 4994 at HOR, “the relationship between the Central Government and the Bangsamoro Government shall be asymmetric. This is reflective of the recognition of their Bangsamoro identity, and their aspiration for self-governance. This makes it distinct from other regions and other local governments.”

Azcuna further appreciated the BBL provision that “the Bangsamoro territory shall remain a part of the Philippines.” He said that it’s a “valid provision because (it clarifies that) there is no dismemberment of country involved.”

Meanwhile, Integrated Bar of the Philippines (IBP) National Secretary Atty. Nasser Marohomsalic said that "Congress has all reasons to pass this Bangsamoro bill which is not a case of charity, but an ordinance of peace that will rectify historical injustices."

Salic was a member of the independent pool of lawyers invited by the Government of the Philippines (GPH) and Moro Islamic Liberation Front (MILF) peace panels to review the draft BBL before its submission to Congress.

Philippine Bar Association Committee on Constitutional Law co-chair Atty. Oscar Tan agrees with Marohomsalic's statement, emphasizing that the BBL is not an ordinary law. He said that reading it can be done either broadly or restrictively. "We are entitled to have legal experiments…This is a broad document to empower future generations. This (law) is not charity, but restorative justice for all of us," he said.

Ateneo School of Government Dean Dr. Antonio La Viña expressed support to the BBL saying that he sees no unconstitutional provisions in the proposed measure. Rather, he lauded the GPH for having done an inclusive peace process. “Thinking ahead of legal challenges, the best scenario here is that you have addressed major issues of major stakeholders.” He recommended, however, that the BBL should be added with a part on definition of terms that will address vagueness of some concepts.

For his part, retired Supreme Court Associate Justice Vicente Mendoza began his comments on the Bangsamoro bill with an appreciation to the GPH in a way that “much has been done (by the Parties) to bring the BBL in conformity with the Constitution.” While he expressed reservations on some provisions like the concept of asymmetric relations, he said he was “glad to see there is effort to comply with the Constitution” when the BBL states that “the President shall exercise general supervision over the Bangsamoro Government”.

BBL, a masterpiece in peace-making

Dr. Jose Abueva, the former President of the University of the Philippines expressed his full support to the passage of the Bangsamoro bill.

“We fully support the enactment of the BBL. What is good for the Moros is good for all Filipinos. (The creation of) Bangsamoro is a welcome model for achieving genuine regional autonomy and development,” he said.

According to Abueva, the Bangsamoro bill is “very enlightening, gratifying” and he is most hopeful that it is a “masterpiece in peace-making” to resolve a decades-old conflict.

The BBL is the enabling law for the Comprehensive Agreement on the Bangsamoro (CAB) which was signed by the GPH and MILF early this year. The passage and ratification of BBL will create the Bangsamoro region, which will replace the Autonomous Region in Muslim Mindanao (ARMM).

Saying that the country needs a progressive political outlook, Abueva pointed out that the “Philippine Constitution must be interpreted as enabling authority rather than as obstacle” to the fulfillment of a Bangsamoro autonomous political entity. “We all need an enlightened sense of history, inclusive view of Filipino nationalism, and broad concept of redistributive justice.

“Our Supreme Court must look forward guided by our lofty national vision in our Constitution and not be bound by restrictive precedents,” urged Abueva.

Presidential Adviser on the Peace Process Teresita Quintos Deles, GPH Peace Panel Chair Prof. Miriam Coronel-Ferrer, GPH panel member Senen Bacani, Human Rights Victims Claims Board member Chito Gascon, and Bangsamoro Transition Commission (BTC) members Fatmawati Salapuddin and Akmad Sakkam were likewise present during the hearing.

Gascon underscored that the Philippine Constitution clearly mandates autonomy for Muslim Mindanao and the envisioned Bangsamoro is consistent with this mandate of the Constitution itself. He said there is no need for charter change to create the Bangsamoro. “It is possible to establish expanded autonomy we have not achieved ever” in Philippine history.


Sumber - PIA

Jokowi Seeks to Reclaim Indonesia’s Maritime Past

Written by Philip Bowring

New president looks outward to the world’s oceans

Foreigners, like most Indonesians, look at Indonesia almost entirely in terms of its domestic politics, economy and internal cohesion. But that may be changing as its new President looks out towards the world’s oceans.

For a mixture of reasons, the world’s most populous Muslim nation has itself long kept a low profile in international affairs. Yet Indonesia is also the world’s largest archipelagic nation and one that includes four of the world’s most crucial straits – Malacca, Sunda, Lombok and Makassar, through which travel most of the trade between East Asia and Europe and the Middle East. So it is worth noting a theme, little remarked in the outside world, which ran through the inaugural address of President Joko Widodo: the sea.

It seemed an unlikely theme for a figure from the inland, rice-growing region of central Java who was assumed to have little interest in foreign or military affairs. But, he remarked: “We have to work really hard to return Indonesia's status as a maritime nation. Oceans, seas, straits, and gulfs are the future of our civilization. We have been showing our backs too long to these seas, to these oceans, to these straits, and gulfs.”

Making repeated references to the sea, he appealed to the spirit of Jaleseva Jayamahe, a Sanskrit-derived phrase which roughly translates as “At sea we triumph” and is the motto of the Indonesian Navy.

Jokowi’s interjection is a recognition of the role of the sea and seafarers in 2,000 years of Indonesian history, one which includes the pioneering of trade routes from the Spice Islands to Africa, and the first human settlement of Madagascar.

But he is not just looking with nostalgia to a distant past of the feats of the Srivijaya and Majapahit polities and the legendary prowess of the Bugis sailors of Sulawesi and the boat builders of Surabaya. He is looking at a very urgent need for Indonesia if it is to fulfill its assumed role as the lead nation of maritime Southeast Asia, keeping its own archipelago safe and cooperating with its maritime neighbors and foreign powers in keeping the region secure and protecting its fishery resources from over-exploitation whether by locals or foreigners.

There is a very long way to go but Jokowi has made a start, appointing Indroyono Susilo, a relative of former Finance Minister Sri Mulyani Indrawati, as Coordinating Minister for Maritime Affairs – a new post – with a remit running from fisheries to ports and vital inter-island shipping. The transportation, maritime affairs and fishery, tourism and energy and mineral resources ministries will all fall under him. Adding weight to the maritime focus, the Coordinating minister for Political and Security Affairs is a former navy chief of staff.

Jokowi has also indicated a shift of defense spending from the army to the navy. For decades the focus of the Indonesian military has been on the army first as fighter for independence, then its dual political and military role for 30 years under President Suharto, and later engaged in internal security in Aceh, Irian and other troubled spots.

Although it clout has been much reduced since Suharto’s 1998 fall, the army continues to play a domestic role and receives the bulk of a defense budget which itself is only about 1 percent of GDP – even including off-budget revenues. Today Indonesia has the largest navy in Southeast Asia – but only just. Despite a vastly bigger coastline, population and the role of its straits, its navy is barely any bigger than that of Thailand.

Shifting limited resources to the navy, which currently has about the same number of personnel as the army, will be a delicate task. It may explain why, for the first time since the overthrow of Suharto a conservative retired army chief of staff, Ryamizard Ryacudu, has been given the Defense Ministry.

The navy faces several demands, firstly security against piracy protection of commercial traffic within the archipelago and secondly, the ability to control the main straits should the need arise. Its third mission is to protect its islands and waters against foreign forces. In the past its relations with Malaysia have sometimes been tense. A dispute still exists over waters off eastern Borneo and mutual suspicions may have been raised by Indonesia which last year inaugurated a submarine base at Palu on the Makassar Strait.

But both countries realize that China is by far the bigger threat. Although China’s infamous nine-dash line claim to almost the whole South China Sea does not, as far as known, include any Indonesian islands it almost certainly includes gas-rich waters east of the Natuna Islands. In March this year armed forces commander General Moeldoko said so directly and openly.

Indonesia’s sense of its own weakness was earlier shown when a Chinese naval vessel forced an Indonesian fishery protection vessel to release a Chinese arrested for illegal fishing off the Natunas. Indonesia also took notice when capital ships of the Chinese navy made a much publicized visit to James Shoal, a feature which China claims although it is on the continental shelf only 50 miles off the coast of Sarawak, Malaysian Borneo. The shoal is also only about 100 miles east of the Natunas.

Even the combined navies of Indonesia, Malaysia, Vietnam and the Philippines are tiny compared with China’s still-growing fleet of an aircraft carrier, several destroyers, many frigates and multiple submarines in its southern fleet. But Indonesia does have a right and duty to protect its fisheries and undersea resources whether by arresting Chinese intruders or, in extremis, using submarines to deny China access other than at very high cost.

At some point China may need to be made to pay a price for expansionism at the expense of hitherto peaceable neighbors so Indonesia’s naval focus, like that of Vietnam, looks increasingly to be on submarines despite their being very expensive to buy and maintain. Indonesia ordered three from Korea, one of which has been delivered, and aims for 12 by 2020, and is examining purchase options. Vietnam should have six Russian-built ones by 2016.

It remains to be seen how long China, a continental, land-focused power, will attempt also to be Asia’s naval overlord. But China’s aggressive actions in the South China Sea are awakening the maritime nations to their histories, the great traditions of sailing and trading which came naturally to a region of islands and coasts. Jokowi is leading the way in articulating the importance of the sea.


Sumber - Asia Sentinel

Titah KDYMM Sempena Menyambut Tahun Baru Hijrah 1436

Titah Perutusan Kebawah Duli Yang Maha Mulia Paduka Seri Baginda Sultan Haji Hassanal Bolkiah Mu’izzaddin Waddaulah ibni Al-Marhum Sultan Haji Omar ‘Ali Saifuddien Sa’adul Khairi Waddien, Sultan dan Yang Di-Pertuan Negara Brunei Darussalam Sempena Menyambut Tahun Baru Hijrah 1436.

Assalamualaikum Warahmatullaahi Wabarakaatuh
Bismillahir Rahmanir Raheem

Alhamdulillaahi  Rabbil ‘Aalameen, Wabihiee Nasta’eenu ‘Alaa Umuuriddunya Waddeen, Wassalaatu’ Wassalaamu ‘AlaaAsyrafil Mursaleen, Sayyidinaa Muhammadin, Wa’alaa Alihie Wasahbihee Ajma’een, Waba’du.

BETA bersyukur, ke hadrat Allah Subhanahu Wata’ala, kerana dapat pula menyambut kedatangan Tahun Baru Hijrah 1436 dalam keadaan penuh selesa lagi harmoni.

Menyambut dan mengalu-alukan kedatangan awal tahun Hijrah adalah merupakan tradisi kita di negara ini sebagai mengenang semula sejarah hijrah Rasulullah Sallallahu ‘Alaihi Wasallam.

Peristiwa hijrah adalah peristiwa penuh berkat. Ia bukan dirancang untuk melarikan diri, tetapi ia adalah berlaku dengan perintah dan izin Allah jua, untuk menyelamatkan akidah yang dibawa oleh Nabi kita Sayyidina Muhammad Sallallahu ‘Alaihi Wasallam.

Ia berlaku dengan cara yang amat luar biasa, penuh dengan pelbagai rintangan dan kesukaran. Sekiranyalah bukan kerana pertolongan Allah jua, maka hijrah ini pasti akan gagal di tengah jalan. Apa tidaknya, Nabi dan sahabat Baginda, Sayyidina Abu Bakar adalah nyaris-nyaris tertangkap dan mungkin juga dibunuh oleh musuh, sekiranya mereka itu tidak ditolong dan dilindungi oleh Allah dengan rumah labah-labah dan sarang burung merpati.

Jika umat Islam benar-benar menghayati sejarah ini, maka sudah tentu mereka tidak perlu lagi ke mana-mana untuk mendapatkan pengajaran dan tauladan. Sejarah hijrah sudah sedia penuh dengan pengajaran dan tauladan itu.

Dari peristiwa ini memaparkan kepada kita bagaimana keberanian itu sangat-sangat diperlukan. Begitu juga semangat rela berkorban dan kesetiaan adalah paksinya. Andainya tidak ada keberanian dan semangat rela berkorban serta kesetiaan ini, maka hijrah yang agung itu, pasti tidak akan menjadi sejarah.

Bayangkan, hijrah itu hanya dilakukan oleh dua orang sahaja, Nabi Sallallahu ‘Alaihi Wasallam  dan sahabat Baginda, Sayyidina Abu Bakar, sedangkan musuh sentiasa berkeliaran dan tidak jemu-jemu memburu dan mencari di mana Nabi berada. Tetapi berkat keberanian dan keimanan rela berkorban, maka Allah telah melepaskan mereka daripada bahaya musuh itu.

Nabi dan para sahabat tidak pernah mengenal erti takut dalam menjalani misi mereka. Kerana mereka yakin bahawa Allah adalah tetap bersama-sama dengan mereka.

Konsep ini sangat mustahak dicontohi oleh umat Islam hari ini, berdasarkan banyak sebab yang menguji ketegasan kita dalam kehidupan berugama.

Jika kita tidak memiliki pendirian yang hebat sebagaimana pendirian tokoh-tokoh dalam sejarah hijrah, maka dikhuatiri umat Islam ini akan menjadi umat yang lemah dan terpinggir, sedangkan Allah telah mengiktiraf kita sebagai sebaik-baik umat disebabkan sikap kita yang sentiasa mengajak dan menyuruh orang lain berbuat baik serta melarang daripada melakukan perkara-perkara buruk.

Manakala kita ini berkeadaan lemah dan sentiasa takut untuk menonjolkan kebaikan-kebaikan Islam dan ajaran-ajarannya yang suci, maka bermakna kita adalah sedang meletakkan diri kita bukan lagi sebagai sebaik-baik umat itu.

Ini perlu disedari dalam usaha kita meneladani ajaran-ajaran hijrah. Pada tahun ini, tema sambutan kita adalah berbunyi: “Bersatu Mendokong Undang-Undang Allah”.

Perkataan “Bersatu” itu sangatlah bagus diucapkan. Begitulah juga dengan ungkapan: “Bersatu Mendokong Undang-Undang Allah” adalah satu ungkapan yang cukup bertenaga lagi luhur. Ia perlu disambut dengan sikap berani dan jujur.

Yang dimaksudkan dengan berani itu di sini ialah berani kerana Allah, bukan berani kerana yang lain-lain.

Apapun perkara jika ia disandarkan semata-mata kerana Allah, maka perkara itu amatlah suci di sisi-Nya.

Apa yang penting untuk kita ingat ialah, sebarang niat janganlah kerana yang lain-lain, tetapi bulatkan ia untuk menolong dan memelihara ugama-Nya semata-mata. Nanti akan kita dapati, Allah itu pasti akan menolong kita pula.

Ini adalah janji-Nya. Sesungguhnya janji Allah itu amatlah tepat dan tidak pernah dimungkiri.

Untuk mengakhiri perutusan ini, beta mengucapkan Selamat Menyambut Awal Tahun Hijrah 1436, dengan harapan, semoga Allah akan meletakkan kita dan negara ini dalam ‘inayah dan pemeliharaan-Nya, dengan melimpahkan rahmat berupa keamanan, kesejahteraan dan hidup bersatu padu dalam kemakmuran. Amin Ya Rabbal ‘Alameen.

Sekian, Wabillahit Taufeq Walhidayah, Wassalamu ‘Alaikum Warahmatullahi Wabarakatuh.

India, Vietnam sign deals on strategic, defense partnership amid Chinese anxiety

Amid ongoing two-day visit of Vietnam Prime Minister Nguyen Tan Dung to India, the two countries signed seven agreements in the fields of strategic, defence and cultural partnership on Tuesday. After meeting between Prime Minister Narendra Modi and his Vietnamese counterpart Dung, the two leaders addressed a joint press conference.

Speaking on the occasion, PM Modi termed Vietnam as an important pillar of India’s Look East Policy while his Vietnamese counterpart Dung said that there is a greater role for India in the region and international arena. This visit holds importance keeping in view that China’s top foreign policy official on Monday,  October 27 made his second visit to Vietnam in four months, as the neighbours work to repair ties strained to breaking point by a territorial dispute. According to a Channel News Asia report, Beijing had moved a deep-water oil rig into waters claimed by Hanoi in May, prompting a months-long high-seas stand-off and triggering deadly anti-China riots in Vietnam. The rig was removed in July.

This visit is being perceived as the cause for rising Chinese anxiety.

Earlier Prime Minister Nguyen Tan Dung had visited Bodhgaya in Bihar on Monday where he said, “Buddhism binds us together.”

Vietnam is also a victim of China’s hawkish policy in South China Sea and it seeks India’s “active support” to peacefully resolve all disputes and sought its greater linkages across the region, a Times of India report said this on Tuesday.

Ahead of his meeting with Prime Minister Modi, Vietnamese PM had made it clear that Vietnam has and will continue to allow ships from India, which is crucial in the light of a month back development when an Indian naval ship INS Airavat was asked to exit Chinese waters as it was approaching a Vietnamese port.

Underlining his Government’s policy to have a friendly relationship and cooperation with India, Tan clarified, “Vietnam supports India to increase multidimensional linkages with South East Asia. For the purpose of friendship and exchange, we have and will continue to allow ships from other countries including India to visit Vietnam.”

In fact, China has been showing opposition to Indian presence in the disputed South China Sea for oil exploration.

The report says that territorial disputes in the South China Sea involve both island and maritime claims among seven sovereign countries of the region which includes- Brunei, the People’s Republic of China, Taiwan, Malaysia, the Philippines and Vietnam.

As far as Vietnam’s stand on resolving the dispute is concerned, Prime Minister Nguyen Tan Dung said, “Vietnam is determined to protect its sovereignty over the Hoang Sa and Truong Sa archipelagos as well as its sovereign rights and jurisdiction rights in these waters.”

Report says that Itu Aba Island, also known as Taiping Island, of the South China Sea is one of many disputed islands in the South China Sea.

As China trying to lay a siege around India through Nepal, Pakistan and Maldives, Indian diplomacy is witnessing a drastic change under the new Government led by Prime Minister Narendra Modi. Unlike the previous UPA Government, the present Modi-led Government is determined to not let China have its way.

In one such latest development, New Delhi has decided to go ahead with oil exploration in the disputed waters of South China Sea. India, in October 2011, had struck a deal with Vietnam to expand and promote oil exploration in South China Sea. But after China’s objection, it could not be implemented.

As it seeks to expand its maritime presence, China has met growing assertiveness from regional claimants like Japan, Vietnam, and the Philippines.


Sumber - Niti Central

KDYMM: Berani, setia, rela berkorban

Oleh Abdul Rahim Haji Ismail

BANDAR SERI BEGAWAN, 24 Okt – Kebawah Duli Yang Maha Mulia Paduka Seri Baginda Sultan Haji Hassanal Bolkiah Mu’izzaddin Waddaulah, Sultan dan Yang Di-Pertuan Negara Brunei Darussalam bertitah mengingatkan umat Islam supaya menerapkan sikap keberanian, kesetiaan dan semangat rela berkorban yang menjadi paksi dalam peristiwa hijrah junjungan besar Nabi Muhammad Sallallahu Alaihi Wasallam.

Ini kerana tanpa sikap berkenaan peristiwa hijrah yang agung itu pasti tidak akan menjadi sejarah. Dalam titah perutusan sempena sambutan Awal Tahun Hijrah 1436, Kebawah Duli Yang Maha Mulia menegaskan jika umat Islam benar-benar menghayati sejarah tersebut maka mereka tidak perlu lagi ke mana-mana untuk mendapatkan pengajaran dan teladan.

Titah Baginda, hijrah itu hanya dilakukan oleh Nabi SAW dan Sayidina Abu Bakar sedang musuh berkeliaran mencari untuk membunuh Nabi Muhammad SAW, namun dengan keberanian dan keimanan yang rela berkorban maka Allah SWT telah melepaskan mereka daripada bahaya musuh.

“Konsep ini sangat mustahak dicontohi oleh umat Islam hari ini berdasarkan banyak sebab yang menguji ketegasan kita dalam kehidupan beragama kerana jika kita tidak memiliki pendirian yang hebat sebagaimana pendirian tokoh-tokoh dalam sejarah hijrah, maka dikhuatiri umat Islam akan menjadi umat yang lemah dan terpinggir,” titah Baginda Sultan.

Kebawah Duli Yang Maha Mulia seterusnya bertitah, Allah telah mengiktiraf umat manusia sebagai sebaik-baik umat disebabkan sikap kita yang sentiasa mengajak dan menyuruh orang lain berbuat baik serta melarang daripada melakukan perkara buruk.

Jika kita berkeadaan lemah dan sentiasa takut untuk menonjolkan kebaikan-kebaikan Islam dan ajarannya yang suci, maka itu bermakna kita meletakkan diri kita bukan sebagai sebaik-baik umat itu. Baginda Sultan bertitah menyentuh tema sambutan Awal Hijrah pada tahun ini iaitu Bersatu Mendukung Undang-undang Allah, yang merupakan satu ungkapan yang cukup bertenaga dan luhur serta perlu disambut dengan sikap berani dan jujur.

Ini kerana yang dimaksudkan dengan berani itu ialah berani kerana Allah SWT, bukan berani untuk perkara lain kerana setiap perkara yang disandarkan semata-mata kepada Allah maka perkara itu amat suci di sisi-Nya.

“Apa yang penting untuk kita ingat ialah, sebarang niat janganlah kerana yang lain-lain, tetapi bulatkan ia untuk menolong dan memelihara agama-Nya semata-mata dan nanti kita akan dapati Allah pasti akan menolong kita pula kerana ini adalah janjiNya dan sesungguhnya janji Allah itu amatlah tepat dan tidak pernah dimungkiri,” titah Baginda Sultan.

Ketika menyentuh mengenai sambutan Awal Hijrah 1436 ini, Baginda Sultan bertitah menyuarakan rasa syukur ke hadrat Allah SWT kerana dapat menyambut kedatangan tahun baru itu dalam keadaan penuh selesa lagi harmoni.

Baginda Sultan bertitah menegaskan amalan menyambut dan mengalu-alukan kedatangan Awal tahun Hijrah merupakan tradisi yang diamalkan di negara ini sebagai mengenang semula sejarah hijrah Rasulullah SAW.

Peristiwa hijrah adalah peristiwa penuh berkat yang bukan dirancang untuk melarikan diri tetapi ia berlaku dengan perintah dan izin Allah jua untuk menyelamatkan akidah yang dibawa oleh Nabi Muhammad SAW.


Sumber - Media Permata

Why the USA May go to War in the South China Sea

By Dr Ian Ralby

It is no secret that the South China Sea is an area of conflict and controversy, but understanding the interests and role of the United States in that region is not intuitive. The situation centers on competing territorial claims by China, Vietnam, Taiwan, Brunei, the Philippines and Malaysia over several sets of islands. Attempts by these nations to control the disputed territories have become increasingly intense, bordering on violence, and vessels have narrowly avoided collision in recent displays of hostility. As the BBC reported on 15 October 2014, it even appears as though the United States is practicing for war with China in case the conflict heats up. Most articles on the subject explain that what is at stake is a mix of territory, fishing rights, mineral rights and control of shipping lanes. It is understandable why, given the economic value of those rights, the states competing over the claims would be willing to resort to violence, especially since a number of the claims involve emotionally charged historical ties and concern national identity and pride.   But why would the US, which is already facing potentially extensive engagements in Eastern Europe and the Middle East, be at all inclined to enter a naval war with one of its closest peers in terms of economic resources and military might? The full answer involves a number of different justifications, but one of the most important ones has received very little attention. As it requires a nuanced understanding of international maritime law, most articles and reports on this simmering conflict in Southeast Asia have failed to even mention it. Simply put, if China gains the disputed territory, it may be able to block access of US Naval vessels and aircraft through most of the South China Sea.

There are a number of obvious reasons why the US would not want China to succeed in the various territorial disputes. Unequivocal Chinese hegemony throughout the South China Sea would be a considerable setback in the Obama Administration’s “Pivot to Asia”. It would also greatly increase China’s maritime domain and access to fisheries and mineral resources. The US often focuses more on the process of resolving the disputes rather than the outcome. The one thing worse than unequivocal Chinese hegemony would be Chinese victory in the territorial disputes on account of bullying, hostility and force. So in an ironic twist, the US, which is not party to the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS) – the most extensive treaty ever drafted, and the principle instrument in international maritime law – nevertheless encourages China, which is a party to UNCLOS, to abide by the Convention’s dispute resolution processes. The US recognises most of UNCLOS as customary international law, but does not itself submit to the jurisdiction of the International Tribunal of the Law of the Sea (ITLOS), which would be called upon to resolve the maritime territorial claims in the South China Sea.

A basic understanding of the international maritime system as espoused by UNCLOS is crucial to making sense of the US interest in the South China Sea. For thousands of years, there has been an ongoing debate concerning the freedom of the seas. On the one hand, many advocate the free movement of vessels throughout the global maritime domain. On the other hand, states seek to exert sovereign jurisdiction over some maritime territory so they can control movement of goods and people into their territory, police the seas adjacent to their land, and access the living and mineral resources in the maritime space off their shores. UNCLOS sets forth a system whereby coastal, island and archipelagic states are granted the right to twelve nautical miles of territorial sea in which they have complete sovereign control, and from twelve to two hundred miles, an exclusive economic zone (EEZ). States have the exclusive right to harvest and control the living and mineral rights within their EEZ. The mounting tension between the US and China concerns their respective interpretation of these fundamental rules.

Under its professed reading of UNCLOS, China does not believe that the principle of free seas applies to foreign warships or military aircraft transiting EEZs. It has tried to stop naval vessels, including one from India, from transiting what would be its EEZ if it won the territorial disputes and took legal possession of the various islands in the South China Sea. It has further claimed that American military maneuvers, surveillance flights, taking of hydrographic surveys (useful in antisubmarine warfare) and other activities in China’s EEZ violate UNCLOS. Additionally, a September 2014 incident involving a near collision between an aggressive Chinese fighter jet and a US Naval surveillance plane made clear that China is seeking to claim sovereignty over the would-be EEZs of the disputed islands.

UNCLOS, however, does not expressly clarify this legal point. Since the Convention does somewhat limit the movement of warships within territorial waters, the US interprets that to mean that there are no such restrictions on naval vessels or military aircraft within the EEZ. China is effectively claiming complete sovereignty concerning foreign warships and military aircraft in the entirety of the two hundred mile zone. If, therefore, China won the disputed territory, the US, under the Chinese interpretation of the law, would have to obtain Chinese permission to sail its naval vessels through or fly its military aircraft over most of the South China Sea. From a strategic standpoint, the US cannot afford to lose such freedom of movement through a vital transit point between the Pacific and Indian Oceans.

As much as the US may want to block the territorial expansion of China, prevent its further enrichment through access to plentiful resources, and curb its hegemonic influence, one of the main reasons the tension in the South China Sea could mount to the point of open conflict between the world’s two largest powers is a disputed interpretation of international maritime law. The free movement of American warships and military aircraft through the South China Sea is of sufficient strategic importance that the US would be prepared to fight for it. In many ways, this matter is actually more fundamental to US interests than the situation in Ukraine or the rise of ISIS in the Middle East. That is why the US may be willing to go to war over the interpretation of an international convention to which it does not belong.


Sumber - OpedSpace

Hol Al-Marhum Sultan Omar Ali Saiffuddien

SALAM MA'AL HIJRAH 1436 DARI NDP

China slams American missile defence radar in Japan

BEIJING — The United States is damaging stability in the Asia-Pacific region by positioning a missile defence radar in Japan, said China yesterday.

Tokyo, an ally of Washington, has voiced growing anxiety over Beijing’s more assertive posture in the East China Sea, where the neighbours are locked in a dispute over control of a group of uninhabited islets.

North Korea has carried out a series of missile tests this year, including two medium-range missiles capable of hitting Japan. Pyongyang has also threatened another nuclear test.

Japan’s Defence Ministry has said an X-Band radar system was delivered on Tuesday to the US military’s communication facility in Kyoto in the western part of the country. It is scheduled to be fully operational by the end of the year.

“Neighbouring countries pushing forward the deployment of anti-missile systems in the Asia-Pacific and seeking unilateral security is not beneficial to strategic stability and mutual trust in the region,” Ms Hua Chunying, a Chinese Foreign Ministry spokeswoman, told a regular briefing. “It is not beneficial to peace and stability in north-east Asia.”

Countries should not use excuses to harm the security interests of other countries, Ms Hua added, describing the situation as deeply worrying.

China has racheted up military spending in recent years, putting in place new submarines, surface ships and anti-ship ballistic missiles, which the US sees as a counter to its military presence in the region.

US Defence Secretary Chuck Hagel has said two Navy destroyers equipped with missile defence systems would be deployed to Japan by 2017 in response to provocations from North Korea.

The two destroyers will have completed a so-called midlife modernisation before being rebased in Japan and will be equipped with the latest Aegis Baseline 9 combat system, which includes state-of-the-art air defence, ballistic missile defence, surface warfare and undersea warfare capabilities, said navy officials.

“As part of their Aegis combat systems, each ship is outfitted with the Mark-41 Vertical Launch System for multiple types of guided missiles and is capable of defensive and offensive operations against aircraft, cruise missiles, ballistic missiles, surface ships, submarines and shore targets, the navy said.

The announced moves comes as the US Navy continues a strategy to focus naval capabilities on the Asia-Pacific region, where vital sea lanes, potential gas and oil deposits and a growing Chinese navy feature prominently.

Beijing and Tokyo are in dispute over ownership of islands in the East China Sea known as the Senkaku in Japan and Diaoyu in China. Beijing is also in dispute with Vietnam, the Philippines, Malaysia and Brunei over the Spratly Islands in the South China Sea. AGENCIES


Sumber - TODAYonline

How the TPP could make or break environmental protection

By Michael Kennedy

A new free-trade agreement being brokered may pose a threat to Australia's sovereignty and environment, or secure an international win for endangered species.
THIS WEEKEND AUSTRALIA will be hosting the next round of the Trans-Pacific Partnership Agreement (TPP) trade negotiations with three days of talks due to begin on Saturday 25th October. Another boring and anonymous meeting of bureaucrats that would appear irrelevant to our daily lives you may think, dragging on for years as these things tend to do. But this one is different, both for the immense dangers it could pose for the global environment, but also for the opportunities it represents to actually change the way in which such agreements treat the environment.

The TPP would be the largest regional trade agreement in the world, involving Australia, Brunei, Canada, Chile, Japan, Malaysia, Mexico, New Zealand, Peru, Singapore, the United States and Vietnam.

These countries are responsible for a third of the world's threatened species, a quarter of the global seafood catch, and 40 per cent of global GDP. Huge and very serious negative implications abound for the environment at every level, including massive wildlife trade and illegal logging, overfishing, shark finning, perverse fishing subsidies, pirate fishing, chemical pollution, threats to the ozone layer and climate change, to name but a few of the issues at stake.

The immense biological diversity of the Pacific region, on which all human life depends, will be at high risk if nations sign up to a trade agreement that ignores the environment. The TPP can either make things far worse or put in place a range of measures to help mitigate any negative environmental consequences, and vastly improve the way that we are able to enforce environmental laws. Ordinary Australians stand to gain or lose a great deal.

Although there is a strong nexus between trade and impacts on the regional and global environment, it is sadly the case that trade agreements are normally finalised without binding and enforceable obligations to protect the environment. This is despite the fact it's commonly understood that by increasing trade through tariff liberalisation (which is what the TPP plans to do), illicit trade in a wide variety of products also increases, including wildlife and wildlife products. A badly negotiated text for example will simply add to the growing global wildlife crime statistics, a criminal activity worth many tens of billions of dollars a year.

Opportunity

But the TPP could be different. For the first time in the murky world of international trade agreements, the TPP will include a separate and stand-alone environment chapter, championed by the United States.

There was hope on the horizon, but a WikiLeaks released draft text of the TPP Environment Chapter in early 2014, prompted WikiLeaks' publisher Julian Assange to state, "Today's WikiLeaks release shows that the public sweetener in the TPP is just media sugar water. The fabled TPP environmental chapter turns out to be a toothless public relations exercise with no enforcement mechanism."

In her assessment of the leaked draft, Jane Kelsey, Professor of Law at Auckland University, noted, "Instead of a 21st Century standard of protection, the leaked text shows that the obligations are weak and compliance with them is unenforceable. Contrast that to other chapters that subordinate the environment, natural resources and indigenous rights to commercial objectives and business interests. The corporate agenda wins both ways."

Disturbingly, according to the WikiLeaks information, Australia had opposed most of the progressive environmental provisions in the TPP. Therefore, in a recent letter to the Coalition Government, five major international non-government organisations based in Australia, including my own organisation, sought reassurances about the Government's attitude to strong environmental provisions. We asked that Trade Minister Andrew Robb support the United States in seeking agreement to prohibit wildlife trade that violates foreign law; prohibit subsidies that contribute to overfishing or overcapacity; ensure that the environment chapter is fully enforceable through dispute settlement procedures; and ensure that multilateral environment agreements are also enforceable through the TPP.

Those same international conservation organisations had met mid-year in Sydney with the visiting US Trade Representative, Ambassador Froman and the US Consul General. The Ambassador's refreshing environmental outlook and hopes for the TPP appeared a little at odds with that of Australia, with the US making it clear it was not going to sign a TPP that did not contain enforceable dispute settlement measures.

The Australian Trade Minister's response to the joint NGO letter was generally evasive, referring to "Australia's already high environmental standards and rigorous protection regimes", conveniently ignoring the fact that the Commonwealth was still proceeding to hand over all its national and some international environmental responsibilities to the states and territories. The Places You Love conservation alliance is still fighting this policy with much vigor. Subsequent to this correspondence we have been unable to gain an audience with the Minister, and even a face to face with his advisers has been deemed by the Minister's office not to be worth the effort, although we continue to try.

The other great danger in the current TPP negotiations is the proposal to allow 'investor-state dispute settlement' that directly threatens the sovereign power of a member state. Professor Kelsey states that, "The most egregious threat the environment is in the investment chapter, in particular the prior consent by all countries except Australia to investor-state dispute settlement (ISDS). The vast majority of investment arbitrations under similar agreements involve natural resources, especially mining, and have resulted in billions of dollars of damages against governments for measures designed to protect the environment from harm caused by foreign corporations."

It seems now though that Australia will back the US on ISDS proposals.

The next few days will tell whether we are facing famine or feast on the environmental regulation and enforcement front, although with the usual secrecy that surrounds such talks, it may be very difficult to determine. Australia must not sell its environmental soul for sake of relaxing an extra trade barrier or two, or to let global corporations rule the roost. Australians and their unique environment are worth more than that.


Sumber - ABC Environment

Malaysia to lose nearly RM5 billion every year in TPPA deal, warns group

Various groups have protested Malaysia's participation in the Trans Pacific Partnership Agreement,
saying it was Washington's plan to expand its hegemony on developing economies.

Malaysia could stand to lose RM5 billion annually with the faster increase in imports than its exports when it signs the Trans Pacific Partnership Agreement (TPPA) by year-end, said a group against the trade deal.

Bantah TPPA chairman, Mohd Nizam Mahshar, said this was based on a report published by a United Nations senior economist, Rashmi Banga, who said that if it signs the agreement, Malaysia's exports to other TPPA countries would increase but its imports from them would increase even more. The TPPA is a free trade agreement involving 11 countries namely Australia, Brunei, Canada, Chile, Malaysia, Mexico, New Zealand, Peru, Singapore, the United States and Vietnam.

Nizam said the bigger imports would result in an unfavourable trade balance with a net loss on the country.

"This means that while our government insists that the TPPA is an agreement where the 'benefits outweigh costs' and is quoted telling the media such, it is a half-truth," said Nizam, who is also the Malay Economic Action Council (MTEM) chief executive officer.

Nizam said Malaysia exported US$93.7 billion (RM305.7 billion) worth of goods to TPPA countries last year, and imported US$73.9 billion (RM241.1 billion) worth of goods from them.

"Malaysia thus enjoyed a surplus in its trade balance with the 11 countries of US$19.8 billion (RM64.6 billion)." Howeverm Banga, a senior economist in the UN's Unit of Economic Cooperation and Integration among Developing countries, or Unctad, said in her report that Malaysia's trade balance with its TPPA partners will fall to US$18.37 billion (RM59.94 billion), after the TPPA comes into effect.

"Once the TPPA is implemented, Malaysia’s exports to the 11 countries will increase by US$1.5 billion (from US$93.7 billion to US$95.2 billion). But its imports will rise by more than that - by US$2.9 billion (from US$73.9 billion to US $76.8 billion)," Nizam said.

"This means that Malaysia will not have net gains from the increased trade resulting from the TPPA. As imports will rise faster than exports, Malaysia will suffer a net loss in its trade balance.

"The loss is significant - US$1.465 billion or RM4.79 billion per annum." Nizam said the situation may be worse than what was predicted in Banga's report, as she had assumed that Malaysia would be able to export more textiles and clothing to the US at zero tariffs and without any other impediment.

He warned that the US was insisting on a "yarn forward rule", where TPPA countries like Malaysia can only use yarn from other TPPA countries when producing textiles and apparel items. As such, production cost for Malaysian textiles and clothing will be higher as they cannot use yarn from lower cost countries like China or even Indonesia.

"The estimated increase in Malaysian exports of textiles and apparel items to the United States by about RM454 million (US$139 million) may exaggerate the gains for Malaysia. If the increase of textiles exports is less than this RM454 million, then the loss in trade balance for Malaysia could be even more than RM5 billion per annum," he added.

In her report, Banga warned that Malaysia could see an increase in imports as high as 61% in electrical machinery from the US, a 97% and 90% jump in the import of vehicles and iron and steel respectively from Japan.

"All these industries are existent in Malaysia and would face direct competition – our steel industry, electrical machinery and the automotive sector," Nizam said. "We all know that these sectors employ tens of thousands of local Malaysians, are ailing, very dependent on government funds and policies and now have to compete on a global level."

Nizam said Prime Minister Datuk Seri Najib Razak must explain the "rosy picture" he had painted, saying it was now shown to be untrue.

"Bantah TPPA calls on the Minister of International Trade and Industry, Datuk Seri Mustapa Mohamed, and also Najib to clarify their stance. "Where are these facts that talk about 'benefits outweigh costs' on the TPPA? Where is the cost benefit analysis report that was pending since May 2014?," he asked.

He pointed out that many others, including Nobel Peace Prize winners like Joseph Stiglitz and Jean Pierre Lehmann from the International Institute of Management Studies, have agreed that Malaysia's involvement in the TPPA was a bad idea.

"So we ask our government to clarify who are these brilliant people who say otherwise. "Until all these questions are answered and facts, figures and direct engagement to debate this agreement is made available to civil society and stakeholders, Bantah TPPA will continue to call on everyone to protest against this deal," he added.

Najib had previously said that the TPPA deal would be completed by year-end on terms acceptable to the country, adding that negotiations would continue even if the deadline could not be met as the contents of the deal were more important.

He had said the aim of the TPP agreement was to achieve two main objectives of expanding trade and market access in terms of economic and investment growth, as well as to uphold the country's sovereignty based on current principles. He had also attributed criticisms against the TPPA to the opposition, saying that the benefits can only be seen in the long-term.


Sumber - The Malaysian Insider

KDYMM: Rapatkan jurang kemewahan dan basmi kemiskinan

Assalamualaikum WarahmatullaahiWabarakaatuh
Bismillahir Rahmanir Raheem

Alhamdulillaahi Rabbil ‘Aalameen, Wabihiee Nasta’eenu ‘Alaa Umuuriddunya Waddeen, Wassalaatu’ Wassalaamu ‘AlaaAsyrafil Mursaleen, Sayyidinaa Muhammadin, Wa’alaa Alihie Wasahbihee Ajma’een, Waba’du.

SEKALI lagi, beta gembira kerana dapat bersama rakan-rakan akrab dan beta seterusnya mengucapkan tahniah kepada Presiden Yudhoyono dan Republik Indonesia sebagai tuan rumah kepada Forum Demokrasi Bali Ke-7.

Kejayaan menganjurkan siri Forum Demokrasi tersebut mencerminkan pandangan jauh Tuan Yang Terutama.

Dalam tempoh 10 tahun menjadi Presiden, TYT telah berjaya memimpin Indonesia ke arah pertumbuhan dan pembangunan ekonomi yang signifikan.

Pilihan raya yang diadakan dan telah berjalan dengan lancar pada tahun ini menunjukkan petanda baik untuk Indonesia dan rantau ini, dan ianya telah membantu meningkatkan keyakinan ke arah keamanan, kestabilan dan kemakmuran yang berterusan di Asia Tenggara.

Beta yakin bahawa di bawah bimbingan bakal Presiden yang baru, Tuan Yang Terutama Joko Widodo, Indonesia akan terus menjadi lambang kemajuan bagi rantau ini, dan beta berharap untuk bekerjasama dengan TYT semata-mata untuk kebaikan rantau ini secara keseluruhannya.

Beta ingin berkongsi beberapa pemerhatian terhadap perubahan landskap serantau sejak tiga dekad yang pada dasarnya mengubah cara kerajaan melibatkan rakyat mereka masing-masing.

Sejak beberapa tahun kebelakangan ini, rantau ini dan rakyatnya telah menikmati pembangunan pesat dan peningkatan positif dalam aspek kualiti urus tadbir yang mana adalah perlu untuk memenuhi ekspektasi rakyat yang semakin meningkat.

Pada masa yang sama, dunia juga telah mencapai kemajuan yang substantif terutamanya dalam bidang sosioekonomi di mana penduduknya menikmati taraf hidup yang lebih tinggi, penjagaan kesihatan dan pendidikan yang lebih baik.

Di Asia Pasifik, termasuk Asia Tenggara, gambaran keseluruhan adalah sangat mengagumkan.

Hasil pengeluaran rantau ini menyumbang sebanyak 40 peratus daripada pertumbuhan global dan satu pertiga daripada perdagangan dunia.

Bilangan golongan kelas pertengahan yang berkemampuan di rantau ini semakin bertambah dan yang paling penting usaha pembangunan telah berjaya mengeluarkan sejumlah besar rakyat di rantau ini dari belenggu kemiskinan.

Kita telah menyaksikan kemajuan yang baik ke arah mencapai Matlamat-Matlamat Pembangunan Milenium (MDGs) menjelang tahun 2015, yang merupakan petanda baik bagi generasi sekarang.

Beta juga merasa gembira bahawa kerja telah dimulakan di Pertubuhan Bangsa-Bangsa Bersatu berkaitan dengan agenda pembangunan transformatif pasca-2015, yang beta percaya akan memberikan faedah kepada generasi akan datang.

Agenda tersebut benar-benar menyarankan betapa pentingnya pembangunan manusia yang inklusif, berpaksikan rakyat dan berdaya tahan.

Trend berkenaan, dalam pelbagai aspek, mencerminkan usaha yang dilaksanakan oleh ASEAN untuk merealisasikan visinya sebagai sebuah komuniti serantau pada tahun depan.

Walau bagaimanapun, Tuan Presiden, beberapa cabaran masih perlu ditangani.

Pencapaian selama 50 tahun yang lalu masih menyisihkan sejumlah besar orang-orang di merata tempat di dunia.

Di sebalik perangkaan pertumbuhan yang mengagumkan dan statistik yang positif, kemiskinan, ketidaksamaan dan ketidakadilan sosial masih wujud.
Walaupun globalisasi telah membawa kemajuan signifikan serta membentuk perkongsian baru, ramai lagi yang masih gagal menangani impak negatifnya.

Pertumbuhan dan pembangunan yang pesat di kebanyakan rantau yang lain juga mempunyai kesan negatif ke atas alam semula jadi.

Cabaran-cabaran tersebut menimbulkan risiko yang besar dan ketidaktentuan kepada kerajaan-kerajaan di rantau ini dan rakyatnya.

Dalam menangani cabaran-cabaran berkenaan, ASEAN mesti bersatu dan mengukuhkan pencapaian yang diperolehinya sejak beberapa dekad yang lalu.

ASEAN perlu menjelaskan apakah matlamat yang hendak dicapai melalui pembangunan yang berpaksikan rakyat dan menunjukkan secara jelas strategi dan program untuk masa akan datang.

Dari aspek politik, keamanan dan kestabilan seharusnya bererti menjamin keselamatan asas rakyatnya.

Dari segi ekonomi pula, pembangunan pesat bukan sekadar meraih manfaat yang berbentuk material tetapi juga merapatkan jurang kemewahan dan membasmi kemiskinan.

Globalisasi perlu menyemai pertumbuhan yang saksama di samping memelihara maruah rakyat.

Dan cabaran-cabaran Abad Ke-21, sama ada dari aspek ketidaksamaan ekonomi, bencana wabak atau jenayah-jenayah merentasi sempadan, memberi kesan secara langsung kepada semua rakyat dan penduduk di rantau ini dan memerlukan mereka melibatkan diri secara membina (constructive) dalam membentuk masa depan mereka.

Bentuk penglibatan berkenaan menghendaki pembangunan politik, ekonomi dan sosial yang menggalakkan interaksi yang lebih meluas antara kerajaan dan rakyatnya.

Ia perlu menghasilkan perkongsian yang aman damai, inklusif dan konsultatif.

Perkongsian tersebut harus mengiktiraf dan menyokong peranan dan tanggungjawab semua pihak yang berkepentingan, serta berasaskan saling percaya, dialog dan konsensus.

Pada dasarnya, perkongsian tersebut adalah sejajar dengan urus tadbir yang baik.

Pada masa ini, ASEAN secara aktif sedang mengambil langkah-langkah yang positif untuk mendekati dan melibatkan rakyatnya.

Terdapat juga penglibatan yang lebih luas bersama sektor swasta, ahli akademik, belia dan masyarakat sivil.

Dialog di antara kerajaan dan komponen-komponen penting dalam masyarakat berkenaan telah menjadi ciri tetap dalam proses ASEAN.

ASEAN memainkan peranan penting dalam membantu kerajaan dalam proses membuat keputusan dan beta percaya bahawa masih banyak yang perlu dilaksanakan untuk merealisasikan matlamat ASEAN yang berpaksikan rakyat sepenuhnya.

Teknologi boleh digunakan untuk mendengar pandangan-pandangan rakyat dan berkongsi maklumat dengan mereka mengenai bagaimana mereka boleh mendapat manfaat daripada kerjasama serantau.

Sektor kerajaan dan bukan kerajaan perlu bersama-sama menumpukan keutamaan kerja mereka kepada isu-isu yang secara langsung memberi kesan kepada rakyat seperti pengurusan bencana, penyeludupan manusia, dadah dan impak perubahan iklim.

Lebih-lebih lagi sekarang, negara-negara di rantau ini perlu saling memberikan perhatian terhadap kekhuatiran masing-masing dan bekerja secara kolektif untuk kepentingan bersama semua rakyatnya.

Wabillahit Taufeq Wal-hidayah Wassalamu’Alaikum Waramatullaahi Wabarakaatuh.

Absence of poverty line hampering eradication efforts

Rabiatul Kamit
BANDAR SERI BEGAWAN

OCTOBER 17 marks the International Day for the Eradication of Poverty, promoting awareness of the need to combat poverty and destitution worldwide.

Poverty often conjures images of starving children suffering from diseases in developing countries and homeless beggars heckling passersby for money. Although such extremes are far removed from Brunei, the fight against poverty in the tiny, oil-rich nation exists.

“The common perception of Brunei is that there is no poverty,” said Ustazah Hjh Rose Abdullah during a recent public talk on poverty in Muslim countries, where she presented the findings of her study on poverty-stricken Kg Ayer residents in the Sultanate’s capital.

Although poverty and destitution is not rampant, the senior lecturer from Universiti Islam Sultan Sharif Ali (UNISSA) said there is relative poverty in Brunei. Relative poverty measures the minimum income needed to maintain the average standard of living in an individual country.

The average income per household in Brunei ranges from $3,640 to $4,661, according to the Household Expenditure Survey last conducted in 2005. Low income groups, earning less than $1,500 per household, accounted for 15 per cent of the population (60,000 people).

However, Ustazah Hjh Rose pointed out there were varying statistics as the different welfare bodies in the country use their own definition of poverty. For example, a study commissioned by the government in 2011 found 27,360 people from 5,472 families were living in poverty.

Meanwhile, data from the Community Development Department (JAPEM) and Brunei Islamic Religious Council (MUIB) places the number of people facing poverty at 20,790 in 2012. Latest figures showed 5,386 people – identified as fakir (destitute) and miskin (poor) – received the zakat (tithe) this year.

The senior lecturer stressed the need for an official poverty threshold that will determine number of people living in poverty in the Sultanate to ensure that no one is overlooked.

She believed the absence of a poverty line is hampering Brunei’s efforts to eradicate poverty.

Besides financial assistance, recipients of welfare benefits are provided with incentives, such as the micro-credit financing scheme as well as skills training and empowerment programmes, aimed at breaking the cycle of poverty.

Ustazah Hjh Rose also noted that local NGOs, including the Social Welfare Council (MKM) and KatakIjau Humanitarian Relief Support Group, play an active role in cooperating with the government of His Majesty the Sultan and Yang Di-Pertuan of Brunei Darussalam’s vision of zero poverty by 2035.

Brunei is scheduled to observe the International Day for the Eradication of Poverty for the third time at a later date.


Sumber - The Brunei Times

Tolak keganasan, ekstremisme

MILAN, 17 Okt – Negara Brunei Darussalam mengutuk keganasan dalam semua bentuk dan sama sekali menolak ekstremisme dan radikalisme. Brunei juga menyokong Resolusi Majlis Keselamatan Pertubuhan Bangsa-Bangsa Bersatu (2170) dan (2178) baru-baru ini untuk membendung aktiviti kumpulan-kumpulan pengganas.

Pada masa yang sama, Negara Brunei Darussalam juga berpendapat bahawa punca keganasan dan ekstremisme perlu ditangani secara menyeluruh.

Ini ditegaskan oleh Kebawah Duli Yang Maha Mulia Paduka Seri Baginda Sultan Haji Hassanal Bolkiah Mu’izzaddin Waddaulah, Sultan dan Yang Di-Pertuan Negara Brunei Darussalam semasa berkenan mengurniakan titah pada sesi pleno kedua Sidang Kemuncak Asia-Eropah (ASEM) ke-10 yang diadakan di Pusat Persidangan Milano Congressi, Milan, Itali.

Titah Baginda, cadangan Malaysia untuk menganjurkan Simposium Menangani Radikalisme akan dapat membantu memberikan peluang untuk mengetahui pelbagai aspek untuk memerangi keganasan.

Ke arah itu, Baginda berharap untuk melihat perkongsian maklumat dan peningkatan kapasiti yang lebih banyak di antara agensi-agensi penguatkuasaan serantau dan antarabangsa.

Pada masa yang sama juga, Baginda menggalakkan dialog antara agama diadakan ke arah meningkatkan toleransi dan persefahaman serta untuk menangkis pandangan dan aktiviti-aktiviti ekstremis.

Kebawah Duli Yang Maha dalam titah mula-mula mengucapkan terima kasih kepada Perdana Menteri Itali, Matteo Renzi dan kerajaan Itali atas sambutan mesra dan layanan yang baik di mesyuarat tersebut. Baginda seterusnya mengalu-alukan rakan-rakan kongsi baru ASEM iaitu Croatia dan Kazakhstan.

Kebawah Duli Yang Maha Mulia seterusnya bertitah mengimbas kembali bahawa Sidang Kemuncak ASEM bermula pada tahun 1996. Ianya adalah merupakan cetusan fikiran bukan sahaja bagi meningkatkan dialog mengenai hal-hal serantau dan global tetapi juga aspirasi untuk menyediakan peluang yang lebih luas bagi meningkatkan perdagangan dan pelaburan di antara kedua-dua rantau.

Ini adalah jenis kesalinghubungan yang diharap dapat menjana peluang pekerjaan dan meningkatkan prospek yang lebih baik bagi perniagaan di kedua-dua rantau. Baginda gembira bahawa ASEM terus memberi tumpuan kepada kesalinghubungan, termasuk matlamat untuk mewujudkan semula Laluan Sutera (Silk Road) yang pernah menjadi jalinan perdagangan penting di antara Asia dan Eropah.

Kebawah Duli Yang Maha Mulia mengambil maklum bahawa ASEM mempunyai pelbagai ahli di samping mempunyai keutamaan masing-masing. Tetapi semua mempunyai komitmen yang sama dalam menangani cabaran-cabaran global yang memberi impak negatif kepada ASEM.

Titah Baginda lagi, dalam ASEM menuju ke arah Agenda Pembangunan Pertubuhan Bangsa-Bangsa Bersatu pasca-2015 dan juga mempertimbangkan satu perjanjian iklim baru tahun depan, sumbangan ASEM sedemikian adalah berharga untuk mendapatkan sokongan terhadap isu-isu tertentu. Di sinilah perkongsian dalam ASEM amat dihargai dalam mempromosikan pemindahan teknologi karbon rendah kepada negara-negara membangun untuk membolehkan ianya lebih mudah diakses oleh semua pihak. Kebawah Duli Yang Maha Mulia seterusnya bertitah melahirkan pendapat bahawa memupuk hubungan di antara rakyat (people-to-people) adalah elemen penting dalam meningkatkan relevansi ASEM kepada masyarakatnya.

Program pertukaran seperti EU Horizon 2020 menawarkan peluang-peluang praktikal dalam pembinaan kapasiti dan pemindahan teknologi yang berharga kepada pelajar-pelajar, kumpulan-kumpulan fikir dan penyelidik-penyelidik di Asia.

Interaksi sedemikian memberi peluang kepada pelajar-pelajar untuk menyumbang kepada perbincangan mengenai cabaran-cabaran di antara rantau dan global yang dihadapi sekarang. Dalam hal ini, Baginda amat mengalu-alukan pelajar-pelajar ASEM ke Negara Brunei Darussalam pada bulan Mei tahun depan untuk menyertai bengkel yang bertujuan untuk menggalakkan keusahawanan.

Di akhir titah, Kebawah Duli Yang Maha Mulia menyatakan bahawa ASEM perlu mengukuhkan manfaat yang didapati daripada kepelbagaian ahli-ahli ASEM, serta memberi tumpuan kepada sinergi dan kepentingan bersama yang mana akan membantu meningkatkan kerja-kerja ASEM ke tahap yang lebih tinggi di dekad yang mendatang.


Sumber - Media Permata

Child abuse cases rise to highest level in five years

Abdul Azim Kassim
BANDAR SERI BEGAWAN

CHILD abuse offences in the Sultanate have gradually risen to their highest level in the last five years.

Royal Brunei Police Force’s (RBPF) latest statistics on offences up to 2013 showed that the number of child abuse cases had gone from 27 cases in 2009 to 36 in 2013.

Meanwhile, Dharar Syar’ie (DS) – S Causing Hurt to wife cases decreased to 111 from a high 132 in 2011. Rape cases dropped from 31 cases in 2009 to 19 cases in 2013 – which marked the first time the figures have dropped to less than 20 cases in five years.

As for the total number of cases, despite the increase in child abuse cases, the overall total dropped from a high 281 in 2009 to 230 cases in 2013.

RBPF Crime Investigation Unit policewoman ASP Hjh Maryani Hj Abd Wahab presented the statistics as she briefed the Sultanate’s principals and schools leaders on the latest laws and regulations concerning schoolchildren yesterday.

In light of the child abuse rates, she reminded principals that they played a vital role as the earliest detectors of child abuse.

She said that the stakeholders of child protection involved three agencies. The agencies were the Community Development Centre (JAPEM) as the children’s protector; the Royal Brunei Police Force’s Women and Child Abuse Investigation Unit (WCAIU); and medical officers including paediatricians.

ASP Hjh Maryani said that schools also played a prominent role of because they are the earliest detectors of children in need of protection. She, however, told the school leaders that she understood the detection role was no simple task especially online child abuse. For example, statistics on rape and unlawful carnal knowledge cases showed that 73 per cent of the 45 cases in 2012 involved victims who were “met online”.


Sumber - The Brunei Times

FactCheck: who recognises Palestine?

By Patrick Worrall

British MPs have voted overwhelmingly in favour of a Commons motion urging the government to recognise Palestine as a state.

The vote will not affect government policy, but the Labour leader, Ed Miliband, supported the motion.

This suggests that a future UK government may recognise the Palestinian territories, currently occupied by Israel, as a country.

For the full-size interactive map click here

What happened in the vote?

The motion, proposed by Labour MP Grahame Morris, stated: “This house believes that the Government should recognise the state of Palestine alongside the state of Israel, as a contribution to securing a negotiated two state solution.”

It was carried by 274 votes to 12, with hundreds of MPs abstaining.

Mr Miliband and other Labour frontbenchers voted in favour, while both Lib Dem and Conservative ministers were obliged to abstain, as is the convention with a backbench motions.

Conservative MP Mike Freer, whose Finchley and Golders Green constituency is home to a large Jewish community, quit his junior ministerial post so he could vote against the motion.

Of the other 11 MPs who voted against, six were Conservatives and five were Northern Irish MPs from the Democratic Unionist Party.

Sir Alan Beith was the only Liberal Democrat to vote against the motion. The party’s policy is to support the recognition of Palestine as a state and 28 Lib Dems voted in favour of the motion.

The motion is not binding on the government.

What is Britain’s position on the Palestinian territories?

Britain does not recognise Palestinian as a sovereign state.

The government says it will only do so when the Israelis and Palestinians negotiate the end of the Israeli occupation through the Quartet peace process.

In 2011 the then-foreign secretary, William Hague, said: “The UK judges that the Palestinian Authority largely fulfils criteria for UN membership, including statehood as far as the reality of the situation in the occupied Palestinian Territories allows, but its ability to function effectively as a state would be impeded by that situation.”

He added: “We reserve the right to recognise a Palestinian state bilaterally at a moment of our choosing and when it can best help bring about peace.”

In 2011, along with more than a dozen European countries, the UK decided to upgrade the status of Palestinian diplomats.

In the same year, Britain abstained when the United Nations voted on upgrading Palestine’s status from “observer entity” to “non-member observer state”.

Some 138 countries voted in favour of the upgrade. Britain was among 41 nations that abstained, including Germany and the Netherlands. But most EU states voted for the resolution and it was carried.

Only nine countries voted against it, including Israel, the United States, Canada and Israel’s closest ally in the EU – the Czech Republic.

Some commentators saw the status upgrade as de facto UN recognition of Palestine’s sovereignty.

But Palestine is still not a full member of the UN. That would require a recommendation by the Security Council, which would probably be vetoed by the US.

Which other countries recognise Palestine?

Some 133 of the UN’s 193 member states have individually recognised Palestine as a state.

That represents 69 per cent of members and covers almost exactly 80 per cent of the population of the world at time of writing.

Of those, 17 countries explicitly say that they recognise a Palestinian state with the borders that existed before the 1967 Six Day War. In other words, they back Palestinian claims to the whole of the Gaza Strip, West Bank and East Jerusalem.


Sumber - The FactCheck Blog

Haze Disrupts Flights in Sumatra as Pollution Nears Danger Level

By Rieka Rahadiana

Haze from Indonesian forest fires is delaying flights to and from Sumatra and increasing respiratory infections on the island as pollution nears dangerous levels.

There were 153 fire hotspots in Sumatra, Sutopo Purwo Nugroho, spokesman for the country’s national disaster mitigation agency, said by phone message yesterday. The Air Pollution Standards index for Sumatra was at 240 on Sunday or at a ‘very unhealthy’ condition and near the 300 level considered dangerous, he said.

Neighboring Singapore and Malaysia have been plagued for decades by periodic haze caused by clouds of ash from forest fires in Indonesia. The blazes are often started to clear land for plantations in the world’s largest producer of the edible oil from palm trees.

“Even though extinguishing efforts are continuing to take place, both from land and air, by law enforcement agencies and others, the burning is still being done,” Nugroho said.

The pollution led to 14 departures being postponed yesterday from the international airport in Palembang, South Sumatra, the Jakarta Post reported today, citing Huzain Achmadi, the acting general manager of state-run airport operator PT Angkasa Pura II, as saying.

The health agency in Palembang, the capital of South Sumatra province, has found the number of patients suffering from acute respiratory infections reached 20,157 as of September, up by around 2,000 from August, the Jakarta Post said, citing Afrimelda, an official at the agency.

Indonesia last month ratified a regional haze pact it signed 12 years ago, an effort to stem illegal burning blamed for pollution that hit record levels in Singapore last year. Singapore in August passed a bill that carries fines of as much as S$2 million ($1.6 million) for foreign companies for illegal emissions.


Sumber - Bloomberg

MILF forms political party for 2016

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HM: Greater gov’t-people engagement

His Majesty Sultan Haji Hassanal Bolkiah Mu'izzaddin Waddaulah, the Sultan dan Yang
Di-Pertuan of Brunei Darussalam, delivers a titah at the 7th Bali Democracy Forum in Indonesia

Izzan Kassim
BALI, INDONESIA

HIS Majesty the Sultan and Yang Di-Pertuan of Brunei Darussalam called for greater engagement between governments and people in combating the challenges of the 21st century.

Challenges of the 21st century, such as economic inequalities, pandemic disasters or transnational crime, require the people to be contructively engaged by their government, His Majesty said in a titah delivered during the opening session of the Seventh Bali Democracy Forum (BDF).

His Majesty said that political, economic and social development can “promote greater interaction between the government and its people”. The resulting partnership should be peaceful, inclusive and consultative.

His Majesty associated good governance to “a partnership which recognises and supports the roles and responsibilities of all its stakeholders and is based on trust, dialogue and concensus”.

ASEAN has taken steps to reach out and involve its citizens, along with those in the private sector, academia, youth and civil society, he said, adding that dialogues between the government and these groups are a constant feature of the ASEAN process.

The dialogues play an important role in helping governments in the decision making process, but more work is needed to fully realise a people-centered ASEAN.

“We can utilise technology to both listen to the views of our people and to share information with them on how they can benefit from our regional cooperation,” said His Majesty at the Bali International Conference Centre.

He urged government and non-government sectors to prioritise their work, and focus on issues that directly affect the citizens, such as disaster management, human trafficking, drug abuse and the effects of climate change.

His Majesty also called for countries in the region to listen to each others concern and work collectively for the common good of all its people.

His Majesty shared his observations of the changes in regional landscape over the past three decades which have altered the way governments engage their citizens.

“This past year, has brought us rapid development and positive improvements in the quality of governance required to reflect the growing expectations of our people,” His Majesty said, adding that substantial progress in the socio-economic area has the global population enjoying higher standards of living, better healthcare as well as education,

His Majesty was impressed by the combined economic output of the Asia-Pacific region, including Southeast Asia, which amounts to 40 per cent of global growth and one-third of the world's trade.

“The size of our affluent middle-class is increasing and most importantly, the development drive has lifted a substantial number of our people out of poverty.”

He also noted the progress made towards achieving the Millenium Development Goals by 2015 stating that it boded well for the current generation.

“This strongly advocates the critical importance of human development, that is inclusive, people-centered and sustainable,” said His Majesty regarding the United Nations’ transformative post-2015 development agenda.

However, ASEAN still has to overcome a number of challenges. His Majesty pointed out that accomplishments made in the last 15 years have eluded a sizeable proportion of people in the many parts of the world where poverty, inequality and social injustices still exist.

Many still struggle with each negative impacts, His Majesty said, adding that rapid growth and development has also had impacted the natural environment negatively.

To deal with these challenges, His Majesty urged ASEAN to consolidate and build on its achievements over the past few decades.

“We (ASEAN) need to clarify what we hope to achieve through people-centered development and reflect clarity in our strategies and programmes for the future.”

Peace and stability in the political sense should mean that the basic security of citizens are met, the monarch said, while economically, rapid development means gaining material benefits and at the same time narrowing disparities in wealth and alleviating poverty. Globalisation should nurture equitable growth whilst also preserving human dignity.

In the titah, His Majesty congratulated the Indonesian President, Prof D Hj Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono, for hosting the Seventh BDF.

He praised Yudhoyono on his 10-year tenure as president, where he led Indonesia through significant economic growth and development, and mentioned that convening the series of democracy forums is a testament to the president's farsightedness.

His Majesty added that the smooth and successful elections in Indonesia this year augur well for both Indonesia and the region, where it has helped inspire confidence in continued peace, stability and prosperity in Southeast Asia.

His Majesty expressed confidence that under Yudhoyono’s guidance, the president’s successor, Joko Widodo, Indonesia will continue to be a beacon of progress for the region.

His Majesty also said that he is looking forward to working with the new president for the betterment of the region as a whole.


Sumber - The Brunei Times

HM urges MoE to identify weaknesses of SPN21

Waqiuddin Rajak

HIS Majesty the Sultan and Yang Di-Pertuan of Brunei Darussalam called on the Ministry of Education (MoE) to equally examine the weaknesses and strengths of the National Education System for the 21st Century (SPN21) during its review.

In a titah delivered during the 24th Teachers' Day and 100 Years of Formal Education celebrations at the International Convention Centre (ICC) today, His Majesty welcomed the good efforts of the MoE to review the SPN21 after the system was carried out in 2009, but urged the ministry to also look into its weaknesses or deficiencies.

"It is not sufficient to just highlight its strengths (alone)," said His Majesty.

“Because I myself have not forgotten, in the beginning of SPN21, it also displayed a number of shortcomings. Have these weaknesses been addressed?” the Monarch added.

His Majesty also praised the high literacy rate in the country, where men and women, aged between 15 and 24, recorded 99.18 per cent and 99.54 per cent respectively, adding that Brunei have met one of its targets in its Millenium Development Goals.

His Majesty added that Brunei had also fulfilled six objectives in the "Education for All" (EFA) framework, which must be achieved by 2015.

“Based on reports released by Unesco (UN Educational, Scientific and Cultural Organisation), we have performed well compared to the situations in other countries (where) 250 million children worldwide are unable to read, write and count,” said the Monarch.

* Full transcript of His Majesty's Titah *

I am grateful to Allah, glorified and exalted be He, for being able to be here on this special occasion to commemorate the 24th Teachers’ Day and 100 years of formal education in Brunei, with the theme: “Life Long Education Guarantees the Welfare of the People.”

One hundred years may be taken as a milestone at which point something in progress has reached maturity. So is in the case of education in Brunei Darussalam, which has matured after a span of one hundred years.

Within that period, the country’s education system definitely has gone through many changes depending on the progress and requirements over the course of time.
                                                     
 With his foresight my late father Almarhum Sultan Haji Omar ‘Ali Saifuddien Sa’adul Khairi Waddien, had implemented a well-balanced education policy by focusing on Islamic religious teaching as well as promoting conventional education. This policy has succeeded in producing local intellectuals of quality.

Praises be to Allah, the educational policy which we have implemented, specifically after independence, is now becoming well established. Not only has the system been able to generate human resources needed for the country’s development, it has also helped to unite the citizens and residents of this country as a unified society based on the national philosophy of Malay Islamic Monarchy.

This is where the role of a teacher is of vital importance. A teacher must prove his worthiness by possessing effective leadership skills besides being widely knowledgeable.  It is in here the true worth of a teacher lies, so much so that they continue to be well-admired and respected by society.

It is incumbent upon teachers to remind us not to be complacent, and they also need to work hard to reinforce and improve teaching and learning for the acquisition of 21st century competencies.

Towards this end, the Ministry of Education ought to draw up better strategies and approaches for the national education system.

I applaud the worthy efforts of the Ministry in reviewing the National Education System for the 21st Century (SPN21) after it was implemented in 2009. In doing so, the shortcomings as well as the deficiencies of the system, if any, must also be examined. It is insufficient to merely highlight its strengths. This is because I personally have not forgotten that in the early days since its inception, SPN21 revealed a number of weaknesses. Have these weaknesses been overcome or what (action has been done so far)?

At the international level, the Sultanate has participated in the global commitment to provide basic quality education for all children, young and adult persons. I am pleased to note that the literacy rate for male and female between 15 and 24 is 99.18% and 99.53% respectively. This goes to prove that we have succeeded in reaching our Millennium Development Goals in literacy.

We have also achieved 6 objectives of the Education For All (EFA) initiative, which needed to be attained by 2015.  According to a report issued by UNESCO, we have done well compared to some countries, where a substantial number or a total of 250 million children across the globe are not able to read, write and count. 130 million of primary school children have not reached the minimum standard of learning, and 120 million have low school attendance, including 57 million who do not attend school at all. Surely, we do not wish to hear that we will also be a contributor to those figures.

I am extremely happy to learn that our country has played a more significant and wider role in this region and internationally.   In the past Brunei was well-known for its financial contributions alone, but now we are capable of providing a service to others in the form of “human capital” by sending Bruneians to teach English Language in the neighbouring countries.

Undoubtedly, we in the Sultanate have become part of the global community enjoying the progress of education. However, in our enjoyment of the fruits of education, we must not forget the groundwork when we set on the glorious journey of education to where we are today. The groundwork (or fundamentals) are the (traditional) Islamic religious education.

It is from here when we began to cast our own Brunei mould (of identity). Islamic religious teaching laid the foundation for formal and non-formal education.

This is our Brunei and a system of education (that is our own), of which no one else will alter or modify it.

To conclude… Happy Teachers’ Day to all.


Sumber - The Brunei Times

Analyst: China’s Encirclement Could Spark War

Griffith University’s Christian Wirth on the ongoing dangers associated with East Asia’s maritime disputes.

By Anthony Fensom

Growing tensions in the East and South China Seas have raised the risk of a “miscalculation” spilling over into a regional conflict. Amid confrontations between various Asian nations over disputed islands and territory, the power shift from West to East is seen having potentially explosive consequences.

The Diplomat’s Anthony Fensom spoke to Christian Wirth, a research fellow at Australia’s Griffith University Asia Institute, on the region’s maritime disputes involving China, Japan, South Korea and other nations and how they might be contained.

The East, South China and Yellow Seas are seeing a number of confrontations currently, sparking fears of a new “Cold War” in Asia. Is this an accurate description and how real is the threat of war?

We associate the Cold War with a confrontation between two economically and socially isolated blocs, while now we have a huge country, China on the one side, and a de facto U.S.-led grouping on the other. But both are economically deeply interdependent. So if we’re talking about the conflict escalating beyond the crisis we’ve seen between Vietnam and China, or China and the Philippines for example, we would be talking about some involvement of the U.S. and its armed forces.

This could either be a clash such as during the 2001 Hainan Island incident, when a Chinese fighter jet hit a U.S. plane, or an instance where a U.S. ally gets into trouble with China and is seen as in need of being backed up, something which Washington is not really keen on getting involved in. But there might be some circumstances where Washington, for the sake of maintaining its reputation as a reliable ally and its power position in the Western Pacific, might not be able to stay out of such struggles.

The danger is that tensions are being ratcheted up, step by step. By having this overall tension heightened, there’s an increased likelihood of a small spark in one of the existing disputes igniting a bigger crisis. I’m not alarmist on certain clashes or the rise of China itself, but what we should be more concerned about is a general ignorance of increasing levels of fear. There seems to be a belief on all sides that as long as you keep up and increase deterrence, everything will be stable and safe, but that’s a risky calculation. To think that deterrence will decrease the likelihood of miscalculation and that nothing will happen, to me that is wishful thinking.

Given the economic importance of the region’s shipping lanes, how could tensions be reduced?

It is the very essence of great power status that the more powerful an actor is, the more it can influence the overall situation and keep tensions down. So the biggest responsibilities lie with the U.S., followed by China and Japan, which need to take action to improve the situation. I think apart from being aware of the subjective insecurities that the other side feels, it would be helpful, for instance, if the U.S. would refrain from stoking additional Chinese fears through military surveillance around Hainan and the South China Sea, not the least because the ensuing unhealthy dynamic inevitably empowers hardliners in Beijing.

In terms of the law of the sea, yes, it might be true that the U.S. stance is justified and the U.S. Navy has the right to navigate the seas; however, what is at stake is not just the interpretation of legal principles, but an overall political atmosphere, which allows those governments involved in stand-offs over maritime territories to move toward cooperation and compromise. It would, for instance, increase the basic level of tension even more if the Chinese started to conduct the same military surveillance that the U.S. does in the South China Sea around Hawaii and naval bases on the U.S. West Coast.

On the Chinese side, what’s concerning is in the general stance on the South China Sea. The Chinese government should work toward putting its sweeping, unclear territorial claim into the terms of the existing law of the seas in order to make it manageable and amenable to negotiations. The way it stands now, it’s an unclear claim, so it’s very difficult to get a handle on it and this causes more insecurity on the part of the weaker claimants.

At the same time, in Northeast Asia, the tensions between China and Japan are the responsibility of both sides, too. The Chinese side could help to improve the situation by not just keeping up its top-down level of engagement but also by making sure that non-governmental communication can continue even during diplomatic crises. Due to the Chinese system, we have seen a near-complete breakdown of governmental and non-governmental communication and exchange during the 2010 and 2012 controversies. Even Chinese academics were discouraged from traveling to Japan. In times of crisis, in particular, you should have academics continue talking to each other, and have student friendship exchanges proceed.

On the Japanese side, leaders could help the Chinese government to keep nationalism at bay by not provoking anti-Japanese sentiments among people in China (and South Korea) through controversial statements on wartime history. The current government in particular, could do a much better job in this respect. It would also be helpful for the Japanese side to acknowledge that there exists a maritime territorial dispute between China and Japan – that would certainly alleviate the worst of the tensions we’re seeing at the moment.

You have suggested the United States, China and Japan should work together to resolve these issues?

Yes, but there’s a conundrum here, as you have these deep historical animosities between China and Japan. The three governments need to have this situation be stable, but the question is what stability really means. Certainly, part of this stability is provided by the presence of the United States, which has shaped international relations throughout the postwar period. But that U.S. presence, if it remains unchanged, also freezes the current situation.

So, on the one hand, you have the U.S. military presence potentially preventing armed conflict, but on the other, by freezing the status quo, also complicating a resolution of conflicts through reconciliation. And that’s a troublesome issue.

We’re talking about very small steps: when you have, for instance, Japanese initiatives for improving regional cooperation, these regularly cause considerable anxiety, not just in Washington but also among conservative circles in Tokyo. Fears that the U.S.-Japan alliance might be in danger, that Japan might move too close to Asia, and that an Asian or regional bloc might emerge, are always around the corner. These fears should be acknowledged and alleviated. Even if Sino-Japanese relations were to significantly improve, I don’t see Japan becoming part of an Asian bloc or ever getting close to China.

Looking at the Japan-Russia dispute over the Northern Territories/Kuril Islands, will this ever be resolved?

Unlike in 1956 when the Soviet Union and Japan were close to implementing an agreement, the U.S. is not opposed any more, if Russia and Japan were to find a compromise. But what’s still the same is that you have this East-West dividing line that cuts across the disputed islands. Whereas it was the Cold War split that inhibited a resolution in the past, negotiations are now complicated by the fact that Japan has to make a strong stance against Russia with regard to Ukraine, but that’s not everything.

In Japan, the conviction that ultimately all islands should be returned seems to persist. You could see that in the 2000-01 negotiations. Then, Russian President Vladimir Putin offered the Japanese side the two smaller islands Shikotan and Habomai. The Japanese side, however, has consistently tried to come to an agreement where it gets more than two islands – eventually all four. You’ve also had over recent years Japanese leaders like Taro Aso suggest there could be a compromise where Japan gets three islands. But such proposals, even when made by powerful rightwing politicians like Aso, caused a considerable backlash and had to be abandoned.

That’s why I’m pessimistic about any significant change as there seems to be reluctance on the part of Japan to compromise. What will be necessary is to acknowledge that Japan lost the war and that, therefore, it can’t claim all four islands back. That seems to be really difficult to do.

How about the dispute between Japan and South Korea over the island of Takeshima/Dokdo?

I don’t see that being resolved anytime soon either. The only way to handle the dispute is to keep it low profile. While the Koreans will never give the islets up, Takeshima did not mean that much for Japan until 2005. Until rather recently, most people were not even aware that the dispute existed. It would be wisest for the Japanese side to shelve it and keep it away from the public sphere.

How might the current disputes impact on important economic ties?

The dispute between South Korea and Japan is quite unlikely to escalate that much. But during the crises of 2010 and 2012 between Japan and China, there were implications – we had anti-Japan riots and boycotts in China. Even though these were contained and/or co-opted by the Chinese government, there would be far greater negative consequences for economic ties if tensions were to increase. When nationalist currents and emotions run high, there’s not much space left for rational calculations about economic costs and benefits.

China and Japan are Australia’s top two trading partners, making any dispute between them a lose-lose situation for Australia. How might the Australian government approach such disputes?

To safeguard Australia’s economic and political interests, it would be very wise for Canberra to proceed on a path similar to the one pursued in the 90s, when Australia was leading in the creation of APEC and other regional bodies…having this enmeshment of not just China but all the regional powers, that’s one way to create stability and it would be quite a good way for Australia to play a leadership role.

There’s nothing to be lost by doing that, as opposed to Australia joining one side of a deepening rift or conflict, which would potentially be costly on the economic side and defense side. You might know where you belong to and have your allies, but in a confrontation among great powers, these allies don’t really provide you with sustainable economic growth and real stability.

All of China’s rivals deny having a “containment” policy toward China. How do you see the situation?

Containment as it happened during the Cold War was different to what we’re seeing now – there’s no real or de facto containment, but that doesn’t really matter. What matters is the Chinese view on the current security environment. When leading think tank experts tell you: “Look there’s fires all around us, what are we supposed to do?”, then, that is not a good sign.

I think that’s the real danger – when you have the leadership of a country feeling encircled, isolated, that’s where rationality calculations change. You will see more assertiveness, aggressiveness even. Leaders will be prone to miscalculations because they can’t see the overall situation.

One example is the 1969 conflict between China and the Soviet Union where the Chinese leadership was extremely concerned and thought a nuclear attack by the U.S.S.R. was imminent and left Beijing for the bunkers. Of course that’s an extreme case during the Cold War, of a China not really connected to the outside world. But that’s the danger of what I would call “ideational isolation,” and that’s what we should try to prevent.

How do you see the outlook for these maritime disputes over the next five to 10 years?

I’m rather pessimistic – I think these maritime disputes will continue to be big issues. I don’t think it’s possible to really shelve them, especially not in the East China and South China Seas. This is because the political situation has changed. The disputes are now out in the public sphere and foreign ministries are no longer in control of managing them.

We need to do more than just engage in crisis diplomacy. There might be instances where some of the claimants might reach agreements on joint development, but overall I think maritime disputes will be of great concern. The question then is what else do we have – is there going to be anything to balance these negative dynamics with?

Then, there are two wildcards. One is China’s economic situation. If that changes, what’s going to happen to the “power shift” and how would a bigger economic crisis, such as commonly occur, affect China’s political stability and foreign policy?

The other is North Korea, because we’re not sure how stable that regime really is and what the new leadership might do next. We can, for instance, see negotiations between Japan and North Korea on the abduction issue, which is quite interesting.

All of the relationships among Northeast Asian governments, if they change, might alter the dynamic at least in the sub-region. While that makes the future of East Asia more uncertain, it also offers great opportunities if handled pragmatically.


Sumber - The Diplomat