Asean will not displease China

Hopes to attain regional community in 2015

Barbara Mae Dacanay
July 11, 2012

Manila: The Association of Southeast Asian Nations (Asean) will not take a united stand against China on pestering territorial disputes with the Philippines and Vietnam in the South China Sea , as the 45-year old regional grouping aims to become a united community in 2015, sources said.

Asean member countries are Brunei, Cambodia, Indonesia, Laos, Malaysia, Myanmar, Philippines, Singapore, Thailand and Vietnam.

Instead of identifying China as a threat to the region because of the South China Sea issue, Asean should be prepared with other external problems such as a weakened US economy; Europe’s debt crisis; socio-political unrest in the Middle East and North Africa, Cambodia’s Prime Minister Hun Sen said at the start of the ministerial meeting in Cambodia, the transcript of which reached Manila’s foreign affairs office.

Oil price hike, food and energy security, disasters, and terrorism are other problems threatening Asean, Hun Sen said, adding, “These still pose a great threat to the sustainability of socio-economic development of Asean achieved over the last four decades and the success of our effort towards realizing a full Asean Community in 2015.”

Underlining Asean’s role as a global peace maker and not an enemy-maker, Hun Sen said that the regional grouping of 600 million people is an “influential player in Asia and an indispensable strategic partner of major countries and organizations in the world”.

“Those achievements underline the strong commitment and political will of Asean to continue working closely together in the Asean spirit of unity and solidarity, friendship and cooperation,” he explained

Noting China’s value to Asean, Xunpeng Shi, Energy Economist of the Economic Research Institute for Asean and East Asia told East Asia Forum, “Asean should be a fair, neutral and transparent facilitator of peace, rather than an aggressive opponent against China, when it comes to resolving the South China Sea dispute.”

“A united front [against China on the South China Sea issue] may provide short-lived, small-scale benefits to those Asean member states involved in the dispute, but it would be detrimental to Asean as a whole,” said Xunpeng, adding, “The Asean member states engaged in the dispute (in the South China Sea) may obtain more bargaining power and other political gains, but they may not get much more than this because China is unlikely to be able to succumb to Asean’s pressure.”

At the same time, China has been very supportive of Asean in resolving regional issues, including the South China Sea dispute. But China may not maintain its current policy toward Asean if the latter were to become China’s opponent,” Xunpeng explained.

“Asean may lose its centrality in promoting regional integration and its role in the region may be marginalised [as soon as it forms a united front stance against China],” warned Xunpeng.

Other sources said that the United States, an ally of the Philippines, which is still recovering economically will not waste energy to wage battle against China.

Moreover, Asean could not yet form a consensus on how to handle the South China Sea problem, despite strident complaints from the Philippines and Vietnam which have been complaining at China’s flexing of muscle in the contested area, other observers said.

Asean hopes to get China’s nod for the continuation of negotiations with China at the Asean ministerial meeting on Wednesday.

China, Taiwan, and Vietnam claim all of the South China Sea based on historical rights. Brunei, Malaysia, and Philippines claim some parts of the Spratly Archipelago in the South China Sea, based on the 200 nautical miles exclusive economic zone from their shores as provided for by the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (Unclos).

At the same time, Asean is expected to sign the Asean Statement on the Protocol to the Treaty of Southeast Asia Nuclear Weapon-Free Zone (SEANWFZ) at the end of the 45th Asean foreign ministerial meeting, sources said.

Asean and dialogue partners will also hold the Asean Regional Forum (ARF), a security meeting, and the East Asia Summit in Cambodia on July 12-13.

During these meetings, the European Union and the United Kingdom are expected to sign Asean’s Treaty of Amity and Cooperation (TAC), said sources.

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