To Heal Divisions, Brunei Must Take Proactive Role in ASEAN Disputes

By Richard Javad Heydarian

After a year of intense diplomatic brinkmanship over the management of maritime disputes in the South China Sea, Cambodia passed the rotating chairmanship of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) to the tiny kingdom of Brunei on Jan. 1.

Recent years have witnessed a dramatic escalation in territorial disputes between China, on one hand, and a number of Southeast Asian nations such as the Philippines and Vietnam on the other. However, the past year in particular marked a major deterioration in regional relations, due in no small part to the failure of ASEAN, under Cambodia’s watch, to adopt a coherent and effective diplomatic solution, be it in the form of a legally binding regional maritime code of conduct or simply a credible modus vivendi among disputing states.

As a result, many are beginning to wonder whether Brunei, known for its low-key diplomatic style, can muster enough political will to, first, steer a unified regional approach and, second, build on diplomatic advances made during the ASEAN chairmanships of Vietnam in 2010 and Indonesia in 2011, which set the contours of a code of conduct and censured China, a nonmember, over its aggressive maneuvering. Overall, there are still reasons to expect a relatively more constructive and decisive ASEAN leadership this year.

Last year, Beijing further stepped up its paramilitary activities in the South China Sea and coaxed its Southeast Asian ally, Cambodia, to quash any form of regional unity regarding the disputes, while the Philippines and Vietnam intensified their pressure on China by deepening strategic-military cooperation with the U.S. and vigorously internationalizing the disputes. As a result, the region splintered along divergent strategic alignments, calling into question ASEAN’s self-described “centrality” as the engine of regional integration and stability.

The situation further deteriorated when China, under its recently installed new leadership, issued a new passport bearing a watermark map portraying all the disputed areas in the region as Chinese territory and announced potentially destabilizing maritime regulations in the disputed waters. Meanwhile, the Philippines and Vietnam solicited wider diplomatic and strategic assistance from sympathetic Pacific powers, such as the U.S., India, Australia and Japan.

Clearly the region can’t afford the current pattern of spiraling escalation to continue in one of the world’s most important sea routes. Nor can it allow the glaring strategic fault lines to widen, especially with ASEAN, among the world’s most dynamic regional markets, set to form an Economic Community by 2015 and hoping to play a pivotal role in actualizing a Comprehensive Economic Partnership in East Asia in upcoming years. This means that there is tremendous pressure on Brunei to revitalize intra-ASEAN cooperation and return the territorial disputes to the center of the group’s agenda.

In particular, Brunei will be pressured by other members to play a more proactive role and abandon its tradition of neutrality. In contrast to some other ASEAN members (.pdf), Brunei has neither contested China’s territorial claims, nor has it questioned Beijing’s notorious nine-dash line doctrine laying them out. Brunei has, at least officially, also shied away from claiming sovereignty over the two South China Sea features that fall within its 200-nautical-mile exclusive economic zone, the Louisa Reef and the Rifleman Bank.

Like Cambodia, hydrocarbon-rich Brunei is experiencing growing interdependence with Beijing in key strategic and economic areas. Major Chinese companies, including Sinopec Engineering, the Zhejiang Henyi Group and the Chinese National Offshore Oil Corp. are involved in big-ticket downstream, refinery and exploration projects in Brunei. China’s involvement in these areas is particularly important, as hydrocarbon exports account for almost 70 percent of Brunei’s GDP, 94 percent of government revenues and 96 percent of total exports.

Moreover, the island state’s ruling monarchy is heavily reliant on petrodollars to prop up its security apparatus and appease its population through generous subsidies and welfare schemes. Not only is China among the largest customers of Brunei’s hydrocarbon exports, but China’s vast consumer markets also represent a major opportunity for Brunei to diversify its economy and unshackle scores of Bruneian small and medium enterprises from the constraints of a tiny domestic market.

Brunei, like Cambodia, is also one of the less influential and newer ASEAN members, in contrast to the longstanding members that have diligently fought for ASEAN centrality over many decades. Therefore, there are doubts as to Brunei’s willingness and strategic maturity to steer the region amid rising territorial tensions. Brunei is already under growing pressure from regional heavyweights such as Indonesia, Singapore and Malaysia to patch up ASEAN’s differences, even as the ascent of former Vietnamese Deputy Foreign Minister Le Luong Minh to the helm of ASEAN as secretary-general could signal a more robust regional response to China’s assertiveness.

Nonetheless, in contrast to Cambodia, Brunei is a direct party to the ongoing disputes in the South China Sea and has a considerable stake in ensuring maritime security in its surrounding waters. Flush with petrodollars and benefiting from a diverse set of external partners, the Bruneian leadership -- known for its history of astute diplomacy -- could also see its chairmanship role as the perfect opportunity to elevate its international profile and project the image of a stable and strong kingdom. Therefore, although the tiny monarchy would prefer to avoid undermining flourishing ties with Beijing, it has vowed to back Indonesia’s so-called Six-Point Principles initiative, which calls for a peaceful, diplomatic settlement of disputes and the development of a binding regional maritime code of conduct.

Despite Brunei’s preference for low-profile diplomacy and its burgeoning energy ties with China, the prosperous kingdom seems to have realized the urgency of more decisively resolving the ongoing disputes and projecting itself as a reliable and responsible regional leader.

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