Brunei Darussalam’s renewed focus on alternative energy

Plans to revive a stalled renewable energy deal between Brunei Darussalam and neighbouring Sarawak that would see hydropower exported from the Malaysian state to the Sultanate have thrown a focus on its efforts to increase renewable energy sources.

Bruneian officials confirmed at the end of January that they would soon be receiving the business plan and details of a proposal to jointly develop hydroelectric dams in northern Sarawak, with a 40km power transmission line to Brunei Darussalam. This forms part of a wider plan to reduce the Sultanate’s reliance on fossil fuels by increasing its solar capacities and creating feed-in tariff mechanisms.

Electricity Exports

Tapping Sarawak’s considerable sustainable energy resources offers a shortcut to raising renewable energy’s contribution to the Bruneian economy, which has been dependent on gas to generate electricity. Sarawak has the goal of reaching installed hydropower capacity of 20,000 MW, and previous bilateral discussions have proposed the export of some 150 MW to Temburong.  The Sultanate could also position itself as a hub to further export power across the region.

A study, conducted under a memorandum of understanding between Sarawak Energy Bhd, Brunei Darussalam’s Prime Minister’s office and the Department of Electrical Services (DES), was completed five years ago.  Under the proposals, the first phase of power exports would move from Tudan to the Sultanate via a border point at Sungai Tujuh. Limbang, where a 200MW hydroelectric dam project is under review, was suggested for the second phase.

The proposal highlights the rising need to increase renewable energy’s role in the Sultanate. In a report from 2013, Minsoo Lee, the Asian Development Bank’s (ADB) senior economist in the Macroeconomics and Finance Research Division pointed out that the Sultanate had spent $470m in fuel subsidies two years earlier, which amounted to more than $1,000 per person.

“For Brunei, the benefit of these projects is that the country will be getting power from renewable energy,” the Minister of Energy at the Prime Minister’s Office, YB Pehin Dato Yasmin Umar, said, adding that it would conduct its own due diligence before investing in the project.

The Energy Plan

Although unable to reach the ASEAN bloc target of renewable energy accounting for 15% of collective energy supply by 2015, the government has made some inroads. In its March 2014 “Energy White Paper”, the Energy Department at the Prime Minister’s Office (EDPMO) laid out the goals of reaching 124 GWh of renewable power generation by 2017 and 954 GWh by 2035.

So far, Brunei Darussalam has very little renewable generation, consisting mainly of a small solar power plant that produces about 1.7 GWh a year.  The country lacks hydropower, a main source of alternative energy.

To meet this target the EDPMO is planning to introduce a feed-in tariff to encourage investment in renewable energy systems. The policy should help to spur development of distributed solar generation within the country and enable homeowners with installed solar panels to sell their excess electricity back to the government.

The government is planning to take a leading role in identifying land for utility-scale solar projects and developing a waste-to-energy project using municipal solid waste. The project is expected to generate 10-15 MW of power.

It also laid out plans for a 45% reduction in energy intensity from a base of 390 tonnes of oil equivalent per $1m of GDP in 2005 to 215 tonnes of oil equivalent per $1m of GDP by 2035 to promote sustainable development.  Part of the reason behind its bid to reduce energy intensity is to meet an anticipated rising demand from a high-value downstream oil and gas sector and other economic activities.

Choosing a Path

Despite the potential for renewable energy growth, critics say deeper reform is needed to encourage greater investment in the sector. Milo Sjardin, head of Asia-Pacific Bloomberg New Energy Finance, told local media in August that the Sultanate must first reduce subsidies to achieve efficient use of energy before making costly investments in renewable energy.  “It does not make sense ... Brunei should start with energy efficiency because PVs can’t compete yet,” he said.  However, he believes that by 2030, when the cost of PVs is expected to drop 25%, investing in the technology will be more viable.

Indeed, while an abundance of fossil fuel reserves has kept energy in good supply and affordable, economic and environmental goals demand a shift to alternative sources of energy. To ensure ambitious goals are met, departments could work closer with the private sector and investment authorities to encourage the growth of new plants and initiatives.


Sumber - Oxford Business Group

HM: Prudent use of energy is key priority

OXFORD Business Group spoke to His Majesty Sultan Haji Hassanal Bolkiah Mu’izzaddin Waddaulah, the Sultan and Yang Di-Pertuan of Brunei Darussalam for The Report: Brunei Darussalam 2014. Here are excerpts from the article.

What is being done to encourage more efficient energy use in Brunei Darussalam?

HIS MAJESTY: Brunei Darussalam has been blessed with an abundance of natural resources, which allows us to meet all of our domestic energy needs. It is important that this self-sufficiency be prolonged as much as possible in order to ensure that we continue to enjoy stability in terms of energy security and maintain an environment conducive to continuous economic development. Prudent use of our energy resources is therefore my government’s priority, driven by, among other things, our national aspiration to reduce energy consumption by 45% by 2035. Education, introduction of fiscal and regulatory frameworks, and adoption of the right technologies and best practices suited to Brunei Darussalam are some of the very important measures being undertaken to ensure that our energy resources are prudently utilised. Allow me to touch briefly on some of these measures.

On the fiscal side, my government introduced a new electricity tariff in 2012 that rewards prudent use of power whilst discouraging wastefulness. Furthermore, the replacement of post-paid residential power meters with pre-paid ones has helped users monitor their actual consumption and therefore encourages a culture of energy saving. The combination of these two measures has resulted in significant reductions in the nation’s annual electricity usage in 2012 and 2013.

In education, we are targeting all users, including the younger generations. Efforts include the creation of “energy clubs” at schools and colleges to promote energy conservation amongst students. We will soon be implementing energy standards and labelling for home appliances that let the public understand and compare the energy consumption for a product. We also plan to introduce energy efficiency and conservation guidelines for non-residential buildings to ensure that energy saving is regulated at the design stage.

In the area of technology, we have successfully overhauled and upgraded our old gas-fired power plants to make them more efficient. Newer plants were built, adopting the more efficient co-generation and combined-cycle technologies. The Tenaga Suria Brunei (TSB) photovoltaic (PV) power plant, commissioned in 2010, is our first foray into the use of renewables as an additional source of energy. With an installed capacity of only 1.2 MW, TSB is indeed small, but it is an important step in the development of renewable energy sources in the country. In line with this effort, my government is currently in the process of developing a feed-in tariff mechanism, which may prove to be a lucrative investment opportunity for residents and potential investors who are interested in renewable energy development in the country, particularly for solar PV technology.

What are the government’s main priorities with respect to private sector employment and contribution to economy?

HIS MAJESTY: The government of Brunei Darussalam has launched several initiatives with respect to boosting private sector employment and increasing the sector’s contribution to the economy. The Department of Labour (DoL) - which carries out its role under the guidance and direction of the Ministry of Home Affairs - is tasked with several important functions, including: 1) the issuance of licences for the recruitment of foreign workers; 2) enforcement of relevant labour laws and regulations; and 3) monitoring and ensuring adherence to the Workplace Safety and Health Order 2009.

Currently, one of the main priority drives for the DoL is the promotion of local employment. This is being done by reducing the economy’s dependence on migrant recruitment. The DoL is pursuing this initiative through a campaign of controlled labour licence reviews for companies, as well as identifying positions that are potentially suitable for locals. This new effort to manage foreign worker recruitment licences aims to assist businesses in determining their ideal number of local workers - without having a shortage or surplus. Furthermore, the DoL plays an instrumental role in prioritising specific positions for citizens.

Besides its operational role, the DoL is also responsible for the protection of employees. Workers are protected by legislation, specifically the Employment Order 2009, and enforcement. Additionally, the Employment Agencies Order 2004 protects employers’ interests by regulating the activities of employment agencies through the issuance of licences. This order also protects employees from being forced to conduct illegal or immoral activities that they themselves may not be aware of. Finally, the Workplace Safety and Health Order 2009, which commenced on August 1, 2013, aims to control or eliminate risk in the workplace.

Another initiative to promote private sector employment is through the Local Employment and Workforce Development Agency, which is under the Ministry of Home Affairs. This organisation was established in 2010 to serve as a national employment centre. The agency provides registration for job seekers looking for private sector employment; upskilling of workers to meet the requirements of the private sector through training and work schemes; lifelong career guidance; and protection for workers’ welfare and rights.

The government has introduced another process known as the training and employment scheme. This aims to encourage employment and productivity in the private sector with incentives such as wage subsidies during on-the-job training and motivational allowances of up to B$2,500 for retaining employees.

These are some of the steps being taken to reduce the country’s dependence on foreign workers, and also to help promote local businesses’ role in the economy.

The Report: Brunei Darussalam 2014 was officially released yesterday.


Sumber - The Brunei Times

The World’s 10 Biggest Energy Gluttons

By Andrew Topf

Next time you get into your car and drive to the supermarket, think about how much energy you consume on an annual basis. It is widely assumed that Westerners are some of the world’s worst energy pigs. While Americans make up just 5 percent of the global population, they use 20 percent of its energy, eat 15 percent of its meat, and produce 40 percent of the earth’s garbage.

Europeans and people in the Middle East, it turns out, aren't winning any awards for energy conservation, either.

Oilprice.com set out to discover which countries use the most energy and why.

While some of the guilty parties are obvious, others may surprise you. A note about the figures: we used kilograms of oil equivalent (koe) per capita, which refers to the amount of energy that can be extracted from one kilogram of crude oil. “Koe per capita” can be used to compare energy from different sources, including fossil fuels and renewables, and does here. The numbers represent the most recent data available from the World Bank.

1.    Iceland - 18,774 kg. Yes, that’s right, Iceland. Of all the countries in the world, including the richest and largest oil producers, Iceland consumes the most energy per person. How can that be? The reason is basically overabundance. With most of Iceland’s energy coming from hydroelectric and geothermal power, Icelanders are some of the planet’s least energy-conscious. Click here for a fascinating video of why the Nordic nation uses so much energy.

2.    Qatar – 17,418 kg. Qataris are addicted to oil. According to National Geographic, the population is provided with free electricity and water, which has been described as “liquid electricity” because it is often produced through desalination, a very energy-intensive process. Qatar's per capita emissions are the highest in the world, and three times that of the United States.

3.    Trinidad and Tobago – 15,691 kg. Trinidad and Tobago is one of the richest countries in the Caribbean, and the region's leading producer of oil and gas; it houses one of the largest natural gas processing facilities in the Western Hemisphere. T&T is the largest LNG exporter to the United States. Its electricity sector is entirely fueled by natural gas.

4.    Kuwait – 10,408 kg. Despite holding the sixth-largest oil reserves in the world, and an estimated 63 trillion cubic feet of natural gas reserves, the demand for electricity in Kuwait often outstrips supply. According to the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), Kuwait is perpetually in electricity supply shortage and experiences frequent blackouts each summer. The country has become a net importer of natural gas to address the imbalance.

5.    Brunei – 9,427 kg. The tiny sultanate on the island of Borneo, apart from being a substantial producer and exporter of oil and natural gas to Asia, is also a habitual power hog. The nation of roughly half a million has the region's highest number of cars per capita. Brunei also subsidizes both vehicle fuel and electricity, which is sold to the public at below-market prices.

6.    Luxembourg – 7,684 kg. Landlocked Luxembourg is almost totally dependent on energy imports, mostly oil and gas. Energy consumption has increased 32 percent since 1990, with transportation responsible for 60 percent of the intake, according to an EU fact sheet.

7.    United Arab Emirates – 7,407 kg. Nothing says conspicuous energy consumption like Ski Dubai. The indoor resort featuring an 85-meter-high mountain of man-made snow burns the equivalent of 3,500 barrels of oil a day. The World Resource Institute estimates the UAE uses 481 tonnes of oil equivalent to produce $1 million of GDP, compared to Norway's 172 tonnes.

8.    Canada – 7,333 kg. Oh, Canada. Kind, peace-loving Canadians certainly love their cars, along with space heaters, hot tubs and other energy-sucking toys. But while many equate Canada's energy sector with the oil sands, it is, in fact, other forms of energy that account for the lion's share of consumption. EcoSpark published a pie chart showing over half (57.6 percent) of Canada's electricity comes from hydro, with coal the second most popular choice at 18 percent. Nuclear is third (14.6 percent), with oil and gas comprising just 6.3 percent and 1.5 percent, respectively.

9.    United States – 6,793 kg. As the world's largest economy and richest nation, the U.S. should obviously be included as a top 10 energy glutton. However, one puzzling fact is that despite annual economic growth, per-capita U.S. energy consumption has remained around the same level since the 1970s. According to the EIA, one explanation is that the U.S. has simply shifted the energy required to satisfy greater consumption to manufacturing centers offshore.

10.    Finland – 6,183 kg. With over a third of its territory above the Arctic Circle, a cold climate, sparse population and a highly industrialized economy, it is no wonder that Finland is among the highest per-capita energy users in Europe. However, according to the International Energy Agency, Finland plans to diversify its economy away from carbon-based fuels, through a shift to renewables, including biomass, and has approved construction of two new nuclear plants.


Sumber - Oilprice.com

Five schools of thought about where the world may be headed next

DOUG SAUNDERS

It has been 26 years since Soviet leader Mikhail Gorbachev stood before the United Nations General Assembly and used Woodrow Wilson’s phrase “new world order” to describe the “profound social change” that was about to take place in the relations between the world’s nations and their people. The world, he said, was about to experience a major change driven by “new nations and states, new public movements and ideologies.”

Over the next quarter-century, Mr. Gorbachev’s new world order became, simply, the world order: a world built on a broad agreement among most major countries that democracy and liberal economy were desirable goals; a world with only one superpower; a world where international institutions could govern trade, monetary and financial affairs and military conflicts; a world in which poorer countries gradually adopted the values and institutions first popularized in the West; and a world dominated by the United States, its military and its dollar.

As the UN once again convenes its General Assembly this week – and surprising words emerge from the speeches of Iranian, Chinese, Russian and American leaders – there is a profound sense, among many observers, that the world is once again reordering itself. The old certainties have collapsed or faded, and new threats challenge them.

The United States no longer always calls the shots, and when it tries to, as in the Middle East, it sometimes fails badly. It may no longer be the only superpower, as China expands to become one and uses its military to torment Japan and to bid for control over the South China Sea. Rival models of nationhood, far more economically and politically authoritarian, are increasingly influential, if not united.

The failures of Iraq and Afghanistan and the tumult of the post-2008 economic crisis have left many countries searching for other influences. An authoritarian, territorial and anti-Western Russia has brought back some of the harsh logic of the Cold War. And a group of defiantly anti-democratic states and violent non-state movements are exercising their own influence – most notably in the failed states created by Iraq’s aftermath, where the Islamic State’s well-financed bid for a brutal theocracy is provoking a new, very different sort of international war, one whose bizarre coalitions we saw emerging in New York this week.

Old-style nationalism, from China to Scotland, has become a force once again. And international institutions have failed to solve some of the world’s most damning problems, notably carbon-driven atmospheric change.

In a recent lecture, Michael Ignatieff, now at Harvard University, spoke of the failure of the old institutions and powers to hold together “the tectonic plates of a world order that are being pushed apart by the volcanic upward pressure of violence and hatred.” The old rules don’t seem to apply any more. People who make a living observing the interactions between nations almost all say that some form of an even newer world order is taking shape around us – but there is little agreement as to what it looks like.

Here are five major, competing visions of the emerging international order, and the thinkers who argue on behalf of each. If history is a guide, the world of the next decade will not resemble any one of them purely, but will be influenced by many of them. In 1988, Mr. Gorbachev’s “new world order” seemed to be a fringe prognostication, dismissed by many. What we are witnessing today may be an equally unpredictable shift.

The world becomes rudderless

The United States is declining in power and influence. That may not be true in any way you could measure or prove, but it is what much of the world believes today – and when it comes to power and influence, perceptions are often as important as reality.

At the same time, many believe that no other country, or bloc of countries, is really interested in becoming the world’s cop, banker, supermarket, sugar daddy or scold. Europe is struggling to maintain its own unity and restore its economy, Japan is looking inward, China is mainly interested in China’s interests, and blocs of new powers such as the so-called BRICS countries (Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa) have failed to act in any co-ordinated way. As a result, this argument goes, the world is increasingly fragmented, without a single vision (or a single big bully) to shape its direction. Those who buy this see it as either a good thing or a bad thing.

On the “bad thing” side of the equation are U.S. scholars Ian Bremmer and Nouriel Roubini, who argued in an influential 2011 essay, and in a book by Mr. Bremmer, that “we are now living in a G-Zero world [as opposed to a well-organized G-20 or G-8 world], one in which no single country or bloc of countries has the political and economic leverage – or the will – to drive a truly international agenda.” On crucial issues such as climate change, international trade, facing up to Russian or Islamist threats, or controlling nuclear arms, it has become nearly impossible to reach international consensus, and the result, they say, “will be intensified conflict on the international stage over vitally important issues.”

A less pessimistic version of this rudderless-world is proposed by Stewart Patrick of the Council on Foreign Relations. He sees an “unruled world,” but one of ever-changing coalitions and improvisations, rather than the dark nihilism of the G-Zero vision.

“I see even more ad hoc actions taking place, with more fluid coalitions to deal with global problems and selective use of frameworks – there’s going to be a lot more compartmentalizing of issues,” he says.

But none of it will be permanent: There will be neither guaranteed Western influence over events, nor an organized anti-Western bloc of nations taking shape as there was during the Cold War (because their mutual rivalries and disagreements tend to trump any solidarity).

Mr. Patrick points to Barack Obama’s UN speech this week, in which he called for world order – but in the form of ad hoc coalitions, among countries that might otherwise be enemies, to deal with the threats of Russia and the Islamic State. Other issues, such as the climate threat and Internet governance, may not be dealt with at all. “There’s very little appetite to remake things,” he says, but at the same time the old institutions won’t have the same drivers at the wheel – or, sometimes, any driver at all.

A new Cold War erupts

What if this new world isn’t fragmented by chaos and disharmony, but instead is divided in two by conflict and enmity? A number of influential thinkers believe that the signature event of our age is not the messy ad hoc coalition of the Middle East but rather Russian President Vladimir Putin’s seizure of Crimea and military meddlings in eastern Ukraine and northern Georgia. In this vision, the new world order is being replaced with something a lot like what came before it – a showdown between ideological blocs allied against one another.

In the view of this school of thinkers, Mr. Putin’s Crimean adventures are not simply a regional problem to be dealt with through tough sanctions and military postures, but one event in a longer showdown between either Russia and its allies – often called the “revisionist states,” for their desire to turn back the clock to pre-1989 days – and the West.

“China, Iran, and Russia never bought into the geopolitical settlement that followed the Cold War, and they are making increasingly forceful attempts to overturn it,” Walter Russell Mead, a leading New Cold War theorist, argued this summer. “That process will not be peaceful, and whether or not the revisionists succeed, their efforts have already shaken the balance of power and changed the dynamics of international politics.”

Critics of this view point out that Mr. Putin’s embrace of ethnic nationalism and the military meddling do not appear to be part of some imperial bid to dominate the world, but rather to make the most of decline and weakness – and that there is nothing you’d call a proper alliance between Russia, China (which Moscow often sees as an enemy) and Iran and Syria (given that Russia often sees Islamic states and its own large Muslim population as a principal threat).

But the Russian-provoked violence in Ukraine, including the downing of Malaysia Airlines Flight 17, has certainly changed the way people look at international affairs: Russia has not just been kicked out of the G8, but out of the old world of interational co-operation. Edward Lucas, a writer with The Economist who warned of a “new cold war” with Russia in a 2008 book of that title, argues that this can be seen only as part of a major new East-West showdown.

“Russia is a revisionist power. It has the means to pursue its objectives. It is winning; and greater dangers lie ahead,” Mr. Lucas said in testimony to the British parliament this month. “Our weakness over Ukraine (and before that, Georgia) has set the stage for another, probably more serious challenge to European security. … Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania are loyal American allies and NATO members. These are our frontline states: The future of the world we have taken for granted since 1991 hangs on their fate.”

A Chinese superpower takes hold

On the other hand, some believe that the end of superpower dominance is really a transition. What if Beijing overtakes Washington not just economically, but militarily and politically as well? A number of people believe this is the major emerging trend.

“The question of whether China is becoming a status quo power, a contented power, a country that’s basically willing to live within the confines of the existing system – it seems to me increasingly that that is not the case,” says Aaron Friedberg, a national-security official in the George W. Bush White House and now a political scientist at Princeton University’s Woodrow Wilson School. “When you look at what Beijing is doing, for example, with the maritime disputes with their neighbours, they’re trying to change the status quo in some pretty significant ways.”

The main critique of this vision is that China does not appear to desire to be a global superpower, in the conventional Cold War sense: Its interests are largely mercantile; its only territorial ambitions seem to involve securing its borders; and it does not seek to impose its ideology or culture on the countries with which it engages – even those in Africa where it has a colonial-like economic role. China depends almost entirely on its economic relations with the wider world and would not dare to jeopardize them.

But a number of influential thinkers – as well as senior Pentagon officials – believe this is changing, especially under Xi Jinping, who since becoming president in 2012 has increasingly brought the military’s voice into Beijing’s discourse. This has led many to argue that China is looking to challenge the United States – certainly within the South China Sea region and the eastern hemisphere, and maybe even more widely. It has become increasingly self-confident and independent – and, because it has eliminated severe poverty and raised living standards within its borders, it is not quite as dependent on outside trade as it once was.

This has led a number of scholars, most on the right, to argue that Western countries should prepare a policy of containment for China, much like that imposed on the Soviet Union during the Cold War. “In his final years in office,” military scholar John Hemmings wrote in an essay this summer, “Obama must decide with regional allies and partners what the red line is for China. And then he must act, if that line is crossed.”

His rhetoric echoes that of Robert Kaplan, the apocalyptic-minded U.S. political scientist, who argued in 2005 that “the American military contest with China in the Pacific will define the 21st century.” That hasn’t come true yet, but there are an alarming number of people, in both the U.S. and the Chinese military, who believe that it will and who are actively preparing for such a conflict – and military timetables have an alarming habit of being put to use.

More hawkish voices argue that Beijing is preparing for superpower status in other ways. “Do they intend to conquer the Philippines? No. But would they like to exercise a dominant influence across their entire region, I’d say yes,” says Mr. Friedberg, whose most recent book is A Contest for Supremacy: China, America and the Struggle for Mastery in Asia. “They’ve never liked or accepted American alliances, and they’re increasingly dissatisfied with those. They’re trying to use economic leverage to strategic ends as well.”

We fight over climate and scarce resources

What if no specific superpower or alliance becomes a major enemy, but the Earth itself does? As petroleum becomes more scarce and valuable, will we have global wars and conflicts over access to it? Will the devastating effects of climate change create new rifts in the global order?

This is not a new model. The idea of dwindling resources or an unstable climate becoming the main sources of global conflict has been around for almost 25 years; just such a resource-and-climate showdown has been predicted by observers such as Mr. Kaplan (in his 1994 essay, The Coming Anarchy) and Canada’s Thomas Homer-Dixon (in such 1990s works as Environmental Scarcity and Global Security and Environment, Scarcity and Violence).

It also has become a theme for environmental historians and activists such as Jared Diamond and Bill McKibben, who argue that climate and resources will soon trump all other politics.

Surprisingly, this has not yet happened. While petroleum rights have played a role in a few conflicts such as the 2011 NATO-supported overthrow of Libya’s Moammar Gadhafi, in general, conflicts during the past quarter-century have not been “about oil” – most of the big ones have been about the old motives of territory, religion and ethnicity (although many have been financed with petroleum revenues). And the notion of climate-driven conflict, beyond a few marginal examples, remains largely a hypothesis.

But there is a distinctly new dynamic to the politics of energy and climate, one that could, some believe, create a difficult relationship between the major powers and their people.

“Resources aren’t becoming scarce as much as they’re becoming increasingly problematic – those that were easy to obtain are depleted, and those that are left are difficult, in many respects,” says Michael Klare, the U.S.-based author of such works as Resource Wars and The Race for What’s Left: The Global Scramble for the World’s Last Resources.

“Either they’re in contested areas like the South China Sea or the Arctic, or you’re relying more on natural gas, which gives Russia and Iran a lot more clout … or they’re causing a domestic struggle over practices such as hydro-fracking.”

This, he notes, leads to a paradoxical problem: Increasingly, countries see these hard-fought resources as necessary tools for their own independence (a petro-centric belief that afflicts everyone from Vladimir Putin to Canada’s Conservatives to Greenland’s independence-minded Inuit to the militants in the Islamic State). By relying on this tool – at the same time as countries such as Germany walk away from non-polluting technologies such as nuclear power – they are further evading any confrontation with a looming climate crisis.

While the result may not play out like the global apocalypse some members of this group foresee, it is increasingly likely that both energy resources and climate change are going to be major components in the emerging world order.

The world muddles through as it has before

Any of the preceding visions could become the one that people in the 22nd century use to describe our era: as one of chaos, as one of division, as one of a new superpower conflict, or as one of resource panic. But it is just as likely, given recent history, that all four will provide at least some sources of tension in a world order that is not so much new as slightly different – one where the same old creaky institutions, and a new set of compromises, allow the world to muddle through.

What if conflicts don’t drive nations apart, but bring them together? This is not as farfetched as it sounds, a number of scholars say.

That case is made most assertively by political scientist John Ikenberry of Princeton University, who notes that, despite limited-scale regional conflicts, the liberal order established after the Second World War remains robust and unchallenged. Russia and China, he writes, “are not full-scale revisionist powers but part-time spoilers at best.” Both countries are deeply integrated into the liberal institutions of the world: “They are geopolitical insiders, sitting at all the high tables of global governance.” And, he notes, most of the values and principles that 50 years ago were considered “Western” are now truly universal, practised and embraced even by those countries that most aggressively oppose the United States. He feels that the best response from Western countries is not to engage in conflict but to deepen engagement – economic and institutional – between countries.

Daniel Drezner of Tufts University, in a book this year titled The System Worked, noted that the period after the 2008 economic crisis was one of surprising international co-operation: Not only did the major powers (including China and the United States) make important compromises and agreements to avoid global ruin, but the postwar international organizations – the UN, the World Bank, the International Monetary Fund, the G20 – suddenly started functioning well as problem-solving bodies. Problems such as piracy, offshore banking, currency imbalance and lax banking regulations have been resolved in recent years through deep international co-operation – some of it involving countries, such as China and Iran and Russia, that are opposed to one another in other spheres. Tensions and conflicts exist, but they have not led to isolation; the world is not divided in two.

These thinkers could be equally wrong – their views sound like those which were popular on the eve of the First World War. But they provide a reminder that awkward, yet ultimately successful compromise and stumbling, rather than global cataclysm, have been the norm for seven decades, and may still be the cornerstone of the newest world order.


Sumber - The Globe and Mail

Vast oil and gas reserves discovered

Quratul-Ain Bandial

BRUNEI has discovered potentially vast reserves of oil and gas in the South China Sea that are double current key performance indicators (KPIs), said the Minister of Energy at the Prime Minister’s Office yesterday.

Existing plans, together with new findings from offshore blocks, are expected to deliver 3.5 billion barrels of oil by 2035, it was revealed in the Energy White Paper released yesterday at the launch of “Energy Week.”

“Last year we had a very good discovery. In fact, our discovery exploration result is double than our KPI within the present acreage area (of Brunei’s exclusive economic zone),” said Yang Berhormat Pehin Datu Singamanteri Colonel (Rtd) Dato Seri Setia (Dr) Hj Mohammad Yasmin Hj Umar.

The minister told The Brunei Times that the government plans to increase drilling activity in the coming years to surpass the current production rate of 372,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day (BOEPD). The split is approximately 40 per cent oil to 60 per cent gas.

The Energy Department at the Prime Minister’s Office (EDPMO) is targeting a production rate of 430,000 BOEPD by 2017, and 650,000 BOEPD by 2035.

YB Pehin Dato (Dr) Hj Mohd Yasmin said he was confident the country could recover from a 7.7 per cent decline in oil and gas production in 2013, which was due to ongoing maintenance at the oil refinery and offshore platforms.

Due to the drop in energy output, the economy is expected to register negative growth of 1.4 per cent at the end of the financial year on March 31, compared to 0.9 per cent growth in 2012. “We are doing a lot of rejuvenating of the offshore platforms. The process is going on, but give it another year or two years and we’ll be back,” he said, explaining that some of the facilities were over 40 years old and well overdue for maintenance.

In order for the national economy to reach the six per cent per annum growth target prescribed under Vision 2035, the energy sector must increase GDP output from $10 billion to $42 billion by 2035.

“We can (achieve the target),” said YB Pehin Dato (Dr) Hj Mohd Yasmin. “It’s difficult at the moment but we can.”

According to the Energy White Paper, the two major energy companies awarded offshore concessions have developed “significant exploration plans.”

Brunei must maintain an oil and gas reserve replacement ratio (RRR) of more than one to meet growth targets.

The RRR has been in the range of 0.3 to 0.7 in the past decade but has climbed above one in the past five years.


Sumber - The Brunei Times

Brunei Darussalam sharpens focus on renewable energy

While abroad Brunei Darussalam might be best known for its substantial hydrocarbons reserves, at home authorities are turning their attention to more “green” forms of energy, including solar. However, compared to some of its South-east Asian neighbours, the Sultanate has set more modest goals and has been slower to develop alternatives to oil and gas.

Selling power to the national grid

In September, the minister of energy, Pehin Dato Yasmin Umar, announced a plan to introduce a feed-in tariff scheme to promote the use of solar power, which will allow individuals and businesses to sell the electricity they generate back to the national energy firm.

Speaking at the opening of a workshop on policies, feed-in tariff frameworks and best practices for grid-connected solar photovoltaic projects on September 9, the minister said such a system would help reduce consumers’ power bills, encourage the use of renewable energy and promote a wider acceptance of efficient energy use.

Later, on the sidelines of the conference, the minister said that while many things needed to be done before the scheme could be implemented over the next 18 month to two years, the programme had much to offer both consumers and the national economy.

The government flagged the possibility of developing a feed-in tariff system at the beginning of the year, with officials suggesting Brunei Darussalam could adopt the scheme as a means to improve energy efficiency. However, it was not until the September workshop that a proposal was fleshed out and a time frame presented.

To support take up of the programme, the government is considering a number of incentives, including low-cost loans to consumers to fund solar panel installation, which could then be paid back using earnings from electricity generation.

According to the minister, the feed-in scheme would be complemented by the development of smart-grid infrastructure, which uses digital technology to help balance supply and demand using two-way communication, improving efficiency and reducing energy consumption. A smart-grid system can, for example, advise consumers to lower their consumption at peak-demand times. The minister added that since this would be a major investment, private sector participation was a possibility.

Greater use of renewables could cut carbon footprint

A study conducted by the World Bank shows that, on a per capita basis, Brunei Darussalam is one of the top electricity consumers globally, ranked seventh behind Iceland, Trinidad and Tobago, Qatar, Kuwait, the United Arab Emirates and Bahrain. The Sultanate also has one of the broadest per capita carbon footprints outside the Gulf region, with emissions per person amounting to almost 21 tonnes, according to the US Energy Information Administration.

Most of Brunei Darussalam’s electricity is produced by gas-fired power stations, though there is some use of diesel generators in rural regions, mainly as a back up to the central grid. The only renewable facility is the 1.2-MW Tenaga Suria Brunei solar plant in Seria, commissioned in May 2011, representing around 1% of installed capacity. The minister of energy told local press in August 2012 that the plant is “a small but important first step in the development of renewable energy sources”.

The Sultanate has set a target of 10% of electricity production from renewable sources by 2035. Other countries in the region, however, are aiming much higher. Thailand’s Alternative Energy Development Plan 2011-21 targets 25% renewable energy and 2000 MW of solar power capacity. A number of projects have already come on-line in Thailand, bringing its installed solar capacity to well over 100 MW.

In Malaysia, a US-based firm, SunEdison, announced in July that it is investing RM170m ($39m) to build two solar plants, with a combined capacity of 15 MW, while the government there is aiming for 1250 MW of renewable power capacity by 2020. Meanwhile, ASEAN, of which Brunei Darussalam is a member, has committed to 15% renewable energy by 2015, a deadline that is fast approaching.

While it seems unlikely that the Sultanate could meet the overall ASEAN target, movement forward on both a feed-in tariff scheme and smart-grid infrastructure suggests that Brunei Darussalam is well-positioned to achieve its more modest goals.

Dipetik dari - Oxford Business Group

Asia warned vs energy dependence

DEVELOPING ASIA should shift its dependence to alternative fuels to sustain its growth path in the next two decades, a senior Asian Development Bank (ADB) official said yesterday.

“If developing Asia is to continue to grow at around 6% and lift millions more out of poverty it needs a massively increased energy supply,” Minsoo Lee, senior economist at the ADB said during the discussions on the lending agency’s updated Asian Development Outlook 2013 at the AIM Conference Center in Makati.

However, Mr. Lee said, while Asia’s energy demand will continue to increase in the next two decades, its energy supply is not enough, even by 2035.

He said that the energy security in developing Asia rests on three pillars: adequacy and reliability of critical energy supply, environmental sustainability, and affordable access.

In terms of adequacy and reliability, he mentioned that Asia’s energy self-sufficiency rate -- a country’s dependence on renewable resources of energy, will be deteriorating due to increasing dependence on fossil fuels, which are non-renewable.

Only three economies in Asia will be self-sufficient by 2035 namely, Kazakhstan, Azerbaijan, and Brunei Darussalam. The Philippines’ self-sufficiency rate is projected at less than 20% by 2035, Mr. Lee said.

“In the Philippines, the indigenous reserves of coal and natural gas will likely be depleted by 2035, and the renewable resources usage share will dramatically decrease to 20%, from the current of about 40%,” Mr. Lee said.

“Therefore, the government should think of ways to boost the country’s energy self-sufficiency rate in two decades,” he added.

Mr. Lee mentioned that without radical changes to Asia’s current energy mix by 2035, coal use will increase by 81%, oil consumption will double, [and ] natural gas use will more than triple.

Developing Asia accounted to 79% of the total population dependent on traditional fuels globally.

Developing Asia’s fossil fuels proven reserves of coal was recorded at 26% of the global figure in 2011, conventional gas reserves was at 16%, while technically recoverable oil and natural gas liquids were accounted to 15%.

Mr. Lee said the region’s oil imports will triple to $30 million barrels a day by 2035 from $11 million barrels a day in 2011.

“In 2010, Asia’s oil imports from the Middle East has risen to 48%. As this trend, will likely to continue, Asia’s growing dependence on a single region poses a great risk for adequate reliable energy supply,” he said.

In terms of environmental sustainability, Mr. Lee said the consumption of fossil fuels is likely to spell environmental disaster.

Furthermore, in terms of affordable access to electricity, Mr. Lee said, “Asia is home to most of the world’s energy poor.”

Developing Asia accounted to 50% of the population without access electricity in 2011. “Affordable energy is key to inclusive growth,” Mr. Lee said.

Mr. Lee said that to allow affordable access of electricity to the poor, the government should “replace general subsidies with targeted subsidies.”

Fossil fuel subsidies accounts to 0.7% of the Philippine gross domestic product (GDP) in 2011, he said.

He also said governments should introduce tax on greenhouse gas emissions to reduce energy consumption and develop new clean technologies.

He added that energy experts should harness renewable energy supplies such as solar, wind, hydropower and biofuels. Developing Asia’s contribution to the global GDP would increase by 2035, its energy use relative to the rest of the world would also grow.

Developing Asia accounts to 28% of the global GDP in 2010, which is projected to almost double to 44% in 2035.

Dipetik dari - BusinessWorld Online

Critical to reduce reliance on oil & gas

Debbie Too
BANDAR SERI BEGAWAN

BRUNEI has a "unique opportunity" to invest in the "greening" of the economy, which would also reduce reliance on traditional energy sources.

Aneta Nikolova, the environmental affairs officer for the United Nations Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific (UN-ESCAP), told The Brunei Times there was incontrovertible evidence to show that countries that focused on only one type of fossil fuel for their energy needs would eventually reach a critical point.

"There is always a critical point, because hydrocarbon, for example, is a finite source... There is no need to wait for that critical point to come closer," she said.

Nikolova also said that oil and gas exploration would become more expensive as fossil fuel reserves were used up, forcing petrochemical companies to bore deeper into the earth's crust. She said that current technology only permitted 40 to 50 per cent of the world's oil reserves to be extracted "so there is basically a lot of room now to start experimenting and building the technology base for renewable energy," Nikolova, a trained petrochemical and engineering geologist, said.

Nikolova said Brunei was in the fortunate position of having a leadership that was very much aware of the need for conservation of nature. She said that Brunei had wisely reinvested returns from oil and gas into natural capital restoration. The "system" is in place to give the country the opportunity to start expanding into renewable energy, such as wind, solar and possibly bio-gas.

"Brunei has an abundance of solar, and good wind opportunities. Another source that could be tapped into could be bio-gas collected from human settlements, big hospitals and farm toilets to produce electricity for home use," she said.

One scenario that Brunei could also explore would be to switch from a centralised electrical system, which she said has an 80 per cent loss on the grid transmitting energy to households, to a de-centralised power system.

This would create more jobs because more people would be needed to work in the compounds. She also said energy itself could be recycled. "During the day when most households have reduced occupancy, if Brunei has solar power, that could be sent back into the grid instead of using it for home use, so the opportunities are here," she said.

Nikolova said green growth created "very different and new opportunities" to be creative and innovative. "I have seen the amazing buildings (in Brunei) from your Sultan, and it is amazing to see the foresight and (care for) nature and the natural environment, so I have a very firm belief that there are a lot of opportunities here," she said.

Nikolova was in Brunei for the first national seminar on Green Growth Policy Tools for Low Carbon Development in Brunei Darussalam: On-site e-Learning Training of Trainers' Seminar at the University Technology Hub, Universiti Brunei Darussalam.

Dipetik dari - The Brunei Times

Society, individual also part of security

Koo Jin Shen
BRUNEI-MUARA

SECURITY is not just about national defence. It is about something as mundane as water to the thirsty, a visiting academic from Leeds University said in his keynote address at the 10th ASEAN Inter-University Seminar at Universiti Brunei Darussalam (UBD).

Victor King, emeritus professor of Southeast Asian Studies at the northern England university said that when it came to security "we tend to think in terms of nations, international relations and strategic matters between nation states".

In an interview with The Brunei Times, King said that a national government might make a decision about public spending or taxation in the national interest from the government's perspective.

However, by doing so it might "cut across" an individual's perception of security.

"It is a complex matter," the visiting professor at the Institute of Asian Studies said.

He added that from his perspective as a sociologist and anthropologist, he was more concerned about security on an individual or community basis.

"We shouldn't just think about human security in national or regional terms, but also in local and community terms as well.

"There is an increasing concern that the world through globalisation is becoming more complex, with all kinds of decisions which affect us."

He observed that while organisations such as ASEAN (Association of Southeast Asian Nations) ensured a reasonable level of peace and prosperity in the region, at the community level there were all kinds of problems.

King said Brunei was not isolated when it came to the issue of human security, even though it has vast natural oil and gas resources and suffered from no overt issues of ethnic conflict and poverty like those afflicting other countries.

He cautioned that the availability of basic resources, such as water, would become increasingly important as the effects of climate change begins to bite.

Dipetik dari - The Brunei Times

KDYMM: Perlu berusaha bagi tenaga yang mapan

Laporan : Hezlinawati Haji Abdul Karim & Hajah Siti Zuraihah Haji Awang Sulaiman

PHNOM PENH, KEMBOJA, Isnin, 19 November. - Kebawah Duli Yang Maha Mulia Paduka Seri Baginda Sultan Haji Hassanal Bolkiah Mu'izzaddin Waddaulah ibni Al-Marhum Sultan Haji Omar 'Ali Saifuddien Sa'adul Khairi Waddien, Sultan dan Yang Di-Pertuan Negara Brunei Darussalam bertitah bahawa terdapat keperluan untuk berusaha bagi tenaga yang mapan di masa hadapan dan pada masa yang sama mengimbangi kepentingan ekonomi dan alam sekitar.

Kebawah Duli Yang Maha Mulia bertitah demikian semasa berkenan berangkat menghadiri Sidang Kemuncak ASEAN-Jepun Ke-15 bersama para pemimpin ASEAN yang lain dengan Perdana Menteri Jepun, Tuan Yang Terutama Yoshihiko Noda, berlangsung di Bilik Champa, Peace Palace, Phnom Penh, di sini.

Baginda seterusnya bertitah kini sudah sampai masanya untuk meneroka pilihan-pilihan tenaga bersih dan meningkatkan kecekapan penggunaan tenaga di rantau ini yang boleh dipelajari dari kepakaran Jepun.

Semasa Sidang Kemuncak tersebut juga baginda bertitah bahawa Jepun telah menjadi rakan kongsi ASEAN yang dinamik dan berpanjangan; dan telah membantu dalam banyak bidang utama ke arah proses membangun masyarakat, khususnya mengenai pengurusan bencana dan bantuan kepada ASEAN Coordinating Centre for Humanitarian Assistance (AHA Centre).

Kebawah Duli Yang Maha Mulia juga menambah titah bahawa terdapat perkara lain seperti kesalinghubungan (connectivity) yang boleh menyumbang dalam merapatkan jurang pembangunan di rantau ini dan berharap Jepun secara rasminya dapat menjadi rakan kongsi pembangunan BIMP-EAGA.

Ketika bertitah baginda juga menghargai usaha Jepun dalam menumpukan hubungan sesama penduduk (people-to-people) melalui beberapa program belia seperti Projek Kizuna.

Baginda kemudian menambah bahawa terdapat beberapa skop yang baik bagi mengukuhkan perkongsian melalui 10-Year Strategic Economic Cooperation Road Map dan juga berharap ASEAN-Japan Comprehensive Economic Partnership (AJCEP) dipersetujui yang mana akan menjadi asas kepada Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) untuk memperluaskan lagi bidang kerjasama ekonomi.

Kebawah Duli Yang Maha Mulia seterusnya berharap agar kerjasama ASEAN-Jepun akan dapat memberikan tumpuan kepada isu-isu utama yang mempunyai kesan langsung kepada penduduk di rantau ini dalam memastikan ekonomi yang berdaya tahan.

Menyentuh mengenai keselamatan makanan dan tenaga baginda bertitah bahawa Negara Brunei Darussalam memberikan banyak penekanan kepada perkara-perkara tersebut.

Dalam hal makanan, titah baginda lagi ASEAN mempunyai APTERR (ASEAN Plus Three Emergency Rice Reserve Agreement) dan baginda juga percaya bahawa terdapat banyak ruang untuk belajar mengenai cara-cara meningkatkan produktiviti pertanian dan menjamin bekalan yang stabil serta mencari pelbagai sumber makanan yang lain seperti sumber marin yang berdaya tahan.

Sebagai Pengerusi ASEAN yang akan datang, baginda mengakhiri titah melahirkan harapan supaya kerjasama yang lebih kukuh akan dapat dicapai di masa hadapan terutama sekali menjelangnya sambutan kerjasama ASEAN-Jepun ke-40 pada tahun hadapan dengan berlangsungnya Sidang Kemuncak Commemorative di Jepun tahun hadapan.

Hadir mengiringi keberangkatan Kebawah Duli Yang Maha Mulia Paduka Seri Baginda Sultan dan Yang Di-Pertuan Negara Brunei Darussalam ke sidang kemuncak ini ialah Menteri Kewangan II di Jabatan Perdana Menteri, Yang Berhormat Pehin Orang Kaya Laila Setia Dato Seri Setia Awang Haji Abdul Rahman bin Haji Ibrahim; Menteri Hal Ehwal Luar Negeri dan Perdagangan Kedua, Yang Berhormat Pehin Orang Kaya Pekerma Dewa Dato Seri Setia Lim Jock Seng dan Menteri Tenaga di Jabatan Perdana Menteri, Yang Berhormat Pehin Datu Singamanteri Kolonel (B) Dato Seri Setia (Dr.) Awang Haji Mohammad Yasmin bin Haji Umar serta pegawai-pegawai kanan kerajaan yang lain.

Sidang Kemuncak yang dipengerusikan oleh Perdana Menteri Kemboja, Tuan Yang Terutama Samdech Akka Moha Sena Techno Hun Sen itu antara lain membincangkan mengenai hala tuju kajian dan masa depan Hubungan Dialong ASEAN-Jepun.

Dipetik dari - Pelita Brunei