‘Complete collapse’ in east coast flood response, NSC concedes

KUALA LUMPUR, Dec 30 — The National Security Council's (NSC) disaster management suffered a "complete collapse" at the district level in the peninsula's east coast, as its staff were among the hundreds of thousands beset by arguably the worst flooding in decades.

NSC secretary Datuk Mohamed Thajudeen Abdul Wahab was quoted by English daily The Star as saying that they were unable to execute their disaster management plan on the ground as their district level teams could not deploy.

"In the districts, the frontliners of our disaster management machinery include the village headman and district officers. But due to the magnitude of the floods, most districts were completely inundated.

"Our entire district machinery collapsed as they had become victims themselves," he was quoted as saying in the report.

Thajudeen said they were severely disadvantaged during the peak of the floods between December 23 and 27, when it had been virtually "impossible" to access many areas, especially with the lack of communication as power was cut to avoid electrocution.

He said their biggest problem was figuring out where help was needed and the extent of the damage caused by the floods in each district, despite having managed to stockpile donations of food and supplies from the public and companies.

"We could not use heavy vehicles; the currents were too strong to use boats and the winds were too turbulent to go by air," he said of the five-day period.

Thajudeen said the situation has become "slightly better" with the receding flood waters, allowing aid to be delivered by air and on the ground, but noted that there were still several areas where helicopters could not land.

A total of five deaths were recorded in Kelantan, three in Pahang and two in Terengganu to date, according to data published by the NSC on its website.

As at 8am today, a total of 235,218 people have been evacuated from their homes in Terengganu, Kelantan, Pahang, Perak, Johor, Perlis, Selangor and Kedah.

Although floodwaters are gradually receding in Kuala Krai and Kota Baru, meteorologists have warned that the worst is not yet over in Kelantan, Pahang and Terengganu.

Reports continue to pour in on overcrowded shelters; intermittent communications services;  shortage of food and water supply; rescue efforts hampered by power outages; and roads that have been washed away by the floods.

The extent of the worst flooding in decades has been such that Deputy Prime Minister Tan Sri Muhyiddin Yassin, who is overseeing the government’s flood relief efforts, has warned that floods are worse than anticipated, saying that assets currently deployed were inadequate to face the floods of such proportions.

Sumber - Malay Mail Online

ASEAN economic integration faces tough road ahead

SINGAPORE — The Association of South-east Asian Nations (ASEAN) has set a goal of merging the economies of its member states into an integrated economic region by the end of next year, but questions remain over whether the project, known as the ASEAN Economic Community (AEC), will be fully achieved come its end-2015 deadline.

The work that remains over the next year is expected to be much tougher as the effort shifts towards reviewing each country’s laws to open up domestic markets and allaying the protectionist concerns of local businesses and industries.

Analysts said much will depend on the political will of the countries to ensure that progress remains in sight, cautioning that the deadline should be seen more as a milestone in the integration effort to make the bloc a competitive economic region.

“The analogy is that we are waiting for a train of complete integration. The train will probably be a bit late and it’s running slower than we had hoped, but it has not been knocked off of the rails,” said Mr Simon Tay, chairman of the Singapore Institute of International Affairs. “But if we try driving it too fast, we will also have a derailment. So I think a steady, step-by-step process is needed.”

The AEC aims to create a single market and production base with free movement of services, goods, capital, investment and skilled labour. Given the project’s ambitious goals, analysts said, it is hardly surprising that it faces tremendous challenges.

But the opportunity is there for the 10-nation bloc, which groups Singapore with Indonesia, Thailand, the Philippines, Vietnam, Myanmar, Malaysia, Cambodia, Laos and Brunei. They have a combined nominal gross domestic product of US$2.4 trillion (S$3 trillion) and a population of more than 600 million people.

First mooted in 2003, the AEC is the economic plank of ASEAN’s three-part vision of political-security and sociocultural integration by the end of next year. The project aims to produce a highly competitive economic region of equitable economic development that is fully integrated into the global economy. To help it achieve its goals, the AEC provides a blueprint and a scorecard to track progress.

ASEAN leaders provided an update on their progress at the ASEAN Summit last month, with the chairman’s statement released after the meeting revealing that the bloc had implemented 82.1 per cent of the overall measures under the AEC. Noting that ASEAN was “at the tail end” of the implementation, it would prioritise fast-tracking the implementation of the remaining measures over the next year, the statement said.

So far, much of the success has been in the reduction of tariffs and the progressive liberalisation and removal of barriers to trade. But the remaining areas, which include issues such as eliminating non-tariff barriers, services liberalisation, labour migration, and the involvement of small- and medium-sized enterprises, are likely to be challenging to implement, said analysts.

“The remaining measures will be harder to achieve ... because if you want them to be achieved, it’s going to involve domestic adjustment. It means these countries have to adjust their domestic laws and regulations to comply with the AEC agreement,” said Dr Kaewkamol Pitakdumrongkit, an assistant professor at the S Rajaratnam School of International Studies’ Centre for Multilateralism Studies, who studies the AEC.

With the issue of labour migration, for example, she said that while the AEC provides for the free movement of skilled labour within the region under the Mutual Recognition Agreement (MRA), there are hurdles in the form of domestic regulations.

The MRA covers several professions, including medical and dental practitioners, engineers and architects. However, its implementation has been slow, particularly in the Philippines, due to curbs in the Constitution and other legislation which restrict the practice of professions to Filipino nationals.

Meanwhile, concerns about rising economic nationalism are also apparent in Indonesia, where laws do not allow foreign firms to list on the country’s stock exchange and regulations limit the percentage of foreign-owned businesses within industries, all of which pose obstacles to cross-border integration.

Because most of the changes that need to be enacted are domestic, analysts said the way forward will depend on the political will of member states to review their laws.

“There’s going to be a lot of convincing to do. Each country has to convince one another that if we work together, the AEC would bring mutual gains to all of us,” Dr Kaewkamol said.

Given that the grouping operates under the principles of the “ASEAN way” — which prefers non-interference in domestic political affairs — there are also questions over the level of enforcement that can help ensure the AEC project stays on course. Unlike the European Union, ASEAN is not a supranational union and the ASEAN Secretariat serves to coordinate rather than oversee the enforcement of measures.

The ASEAN Business Outlook Survey 2015, released in August by the United States Chamber of Commerce, highlighted the widespread scepticism that the AEC would meet its deadline for the end of next year. In fact, the report said most US businesses believed the AEC goals would not be realised until 2020 or later.

However, analysts noted that the ASEAN blueprint makes it clear that member states see the 2015 target more as a marker on the road towards regional integration and have already begun making preparations for the AEC’s post-2015 agenda.

“ASEAN has been sending signals early that 2015 is no longer a deadline, it’s a milestone on the road. So it’s not going to affect their reputation if they can’t meet the 2015 target,” said Ms Sanchita Basu Das, a fellow at the Institute of Southeast Asian Studies who studies the AEC.

As chair of ASEAN next year, Malaysia has stated its commitment to take the lead in developing plans for the post-2015 vision, with Malaysian Prime Minister Najib Razak saying last month it was “conscious that the formation of the ASEAN Community will happen on our watch and we will work tirelessly towards that ambition”.

Malaysia estimates that at least 95 per cent of the measures under the AEC blueprint will be achieved by the end of next year, said the Minister of International Trade and Industry, Mr Mustapa Mohamed.

Although it still faces significant challenges, the AEC initiative has been welcomed by major economic partners such as the US.

“The AEC is good for ASEAN and it is good for the US. It has already (opened) and will continue to open investment and trade opportunities, while reducing tariffs and non-tariff barriers,” said a spokesperson for the US Mission to ASEAN. “ASEAN integration is also in the strategic interest of the US. A more unified and central ASEAN will be even more able to foster peace and stability in South-east Asia,” the spokesperson added.


Sumber - TODAYonline

Anguish as bodies, debris found from AirAsia Flight 8501

A grim discovery in the waters off Indonesia on Tuesday dealt a heartbreaking blow to families whose loved ones were lost on AirAsia Flight QZ8501, and their anguish was felt around the world.

Debris from the plane was spotted about 10 kilometers (6 miles) from the aircraft's last known location over the Java Sea, off the coast of Indonesia's Central Kalimantan province on Borneo.

Three bodies were recovered -- two women and one man, Indonesian search and rescue chief Bambang Soelistyo said, according to the Indonesian state-run Antara news agency.

"To the relatives, I feel your loss, and all of us pray that all of the families are given the strength and fortitude during this incident," Indonesian President Joko Widodo told journalists. He then went to meet with families.

"We are sorry to be here today under these tragic circumstances," said Sunu Widyatmoko, head of AirAsia Indonesia. "We would like to extend our sincere sympathies to the family and friends of those on board QZ8501. Our sympathies also go out to the families of our dear colleagues."

"My heart is filled with sadness for all the families involved in QZ 8501," AirAsia CEO Tony Fernandes tweeted. "On behalf of AirAsia my condolences to all. Words cannot express how sorry I am."

Later, speaking with reporters, Fernandes said there is now "at least some closure" for families that might have been "holding out hope."

Hospitals in the Indonesian city of Surabaya are being prepared to help house and identify bodies being recovered off the coast of Borneo.

As families watched a live news conference about the discovery of the debris and saw video of a helicopter lowering a diver to what appeared to be a floating body, some people fainted. Stretchers were brought into the room.

Family members burst into tears, dabbing their eyes as officials passed out tissues. Some sat with their eyes full of tears, hands covering their mouths or heads buried in their hands. Others had phones jammed against their ears.

Military crew spotted an object's shadow

Soelistyo, the head of Indonesia's search and rescue agency, said the debris was discovered when a crew on a military aircraft spotted the shadow of an object that looked like a plane in the water.

Further searching found floating objects believed to be the bodies of passengers, and then what appeared to be an emergency exit of the plane. Officials sent other search teams racing to the area.

Several nations are contributing resources to the effort, including the United States. The U.S. Navy destroyer USS Sampson arrived Tuesday.

The USS Fort Worth is also being prepared to deploy from Singapore, Pentagon spokesman Rear Adm. John Kirby told CNN on Tuesday. It "can be ready to sail in a day or two to get on station and can be there very quickly," he said.

The United States is also preparing maritime patrol aircraft that could help, he said.

The flight, which was lost Sunday on its way to Singapore, was carrying 155 passengers and seven crew members. The overwhelming majority were Indonesians. There were also citizens of Britain, France, Malaysia, Singapore and South Korea.

Search and rescue teams are diverting all their resources to where the debris is, in the Karimata Strait, about 110 nautical miles southwest of the Indonesian city of Pangkalan Bun, AirAsia said.

Divers and ships with sonar equipment are being sent to the site, where the water depth varies between 25 and 30 meters (about 80 to 100 feet), Soelistyo said.

How can a modern airliner vanish?

Unanswered questions

Fernandes said the focus for now must remain on the recovery effort, and no sweeping changes were planned for the airline, which has 1,000 flights a day. "But rest assured," he said, that once the investigation is done, if "there are things we need to change, that we will change it."

The Airbus A320-200 lost contact with air traffic control early Sunday shortly after the pilot requested permission to turn and climb to a higher altitude because of bad weather, according to Indonesian officials.

Authorities mounted a huge effort to find the aircraft, mapping out a search zone covering 156,000 square kilometers.

Questions remain unanswered about why Flight 8501 lost contact with air traffic control and what happened afterward.

Some experts have said the aircraft might have experienced an aerodynamic stall because of a lack of speed or from flying at too sharp an angle to get enough lift.

Analysts have also suggested that the pilots might not have been getting information from onboard systems about the plane's position or that rain or hail from thunderstorms in the area could have damaged the engines.

The key to understanding what happened is likely to be contained in the aircraft's flight recorders.

"Until we get the black boxes, we won't know what's going on with the engines," Bill Savage, a former pilot with 30 years of experience, told CNN.

'It was to be his last vacation with his family'

Details have emerged about some of the people on board the plane.

They include Alain Oktavianus Siauw, whose fiance says she was on her way to the airport to pick him up when she heard the plane had gone missing.

Louise Sidharta said Siauw was supposed to be enjoying a family vacation before the two got married. "It was to be his last vacation with his family," she said.

Siauw's Facebook page says he lives in Malang, a province in Indonesia.

The disappearance of Flight 8501 also stirred painful memories of the families of people on board Malaysia Airlines Flight 370, which dropped off radar over the South China Sea in March.

Nearly 10 months later, searchers are still combing remote reaches of the southern Indian Ocean for any trace of the Boeing 777 that had 239 people on board.

"The lack of ability to close things down emotionally is just exhausting," Sarah Bajc told CNN on Monday night. Her partner, Philip Woods, was on board Flight 370.

When news broke that another plane had disappeared this week, Bajc said, "I just started to shake."


Sumber - CNN.com

Indonesia Keen On ‘Big Brother’ Role in ASEAN and Beyond: Official

The country’s army chief says it wants to play a bigger role in promoting order in Asia

By Prashanth Parameswaran

The Indonesian military is keen on playing the role of “big brother” within the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) and beyond to promote order in the Asia-Pacific, the head of the country’s armed forces (TNI), General Moeldoko, said yesterday.

In remarks delivered before officially opening a meeting of senior Indonesian military leaders, Moeldoko said that he had used Indonesia’s rising power and influence in various regional fora such as the ASEAN Chiefs of Defense Forces Informal Meeting (ACDFIM) to advance the military’s goal of making itself a “big brother” in Southeast Asia.

“As head of TNI, I have brought a strong mission for it [the Indonesian military] to be the ‘big brother’ in the ASEAN region. We are now trying to do this and everyone [in ASEAN] has recognized the military’s growing power,” Moeldoko said in his remarks, which were delivered in the country’s military headquarters in East Jakarta in the local language Bahasa Indonesia.

Indonesia’s “big brother” role – a more informal characterization of its status as first among equals in ASEAN given its heft – tends to be viewed with mixed feelings in Southeast Asia. Some see Jakarta’s leadership as useful in directing the region and logical given its weight, while others regard it with suspicion due to historical animosities and future worries about how Indonesia may use its growing power. That lingering suspicion has only been compounded by some uncertainty about the new Indonesian president Joko “Jokowi” Widodo’s foreign policy and what it means for Jakarta’s role in the region.

Nevertheless, Moeldoko said that with Indonesia’s growing might and status being widely recognized within ASEAN, the Indonesian military was now seeking similar recognition in the broader Asia-Pacific region.

Moeldoko’s focus on the expansion of Indonesia’s role into the broader Asia-Pacific is consistent with his previous remarks on the subject. For instance, in March this year, Moeldoko told the Singapore newspaper The Straits Times in an interview that he had proposed that the ACDFIM be expanded into an “ACDFIM Plus” to include counterparts from key players like the United States and China to better manage regional tensions in the Asia-Pacific.

Looking ahead, Moeldoko said that beyond the Indonesian military’s quest for “big brother” status within ASEAN, there would be other challenges for Indonesia and other ASEAN states as the Asia-Pacific becomes a region of focus in the 21st century and emerges as a global center of economic gravity.

One of those challenges that ASEAN states are grappling with now, and which Moeldoko addressed, is the South China Sea issue. Moeldoko revealed that he had told the chief of the Chinese armed forces in recent talks that while he and his ASEAN counterparts understood China’s ongoing military modernization, they “could not accept” if its growing prowess gives rise to instability in Southeast Asia.

While Moeldoko emphasized he was only conveying a message from ASEAN military chiefs, he is also known to personally harbor a more hawkish view of China. In April, Moeldoko advanced a hardened Indonesian position on the South China Sea in the Wall Street Journal, noting that Jakarta was “dismayed” that Beijing’s infamous nine-dash line in the South China Sea had included “parts of the Natuna Islands” which Indonesia claims, and that his country would “strengthen its forces” in response. The piece stoked broader concerns not just about a potential change in Indonesia’s approach to the South China issue, but the extent to which its position was truly coordinated between different interest groups including the military.

However, in his remarks on Monday, Moeldoko also reiterated that Indonesia was looking to cooperate with China on several matters as well, for instance in exploiting potential synergies between the “global maritime fulcrum” doctrine that Jokowi has advocated and the Maritime Silk Road idea that China has advanced. Chinese and Indonesian officials and advisers have been emphasizing the compatibility of these two visions since Jokowi was inaugurated in October.


Sumber - The Diplomat

Unlocking Asean’s potential

By Kishore Mahbubani and Fraser Thompson

CAN 10 countries with different cultures, traditions, languages, political systems and levels of economic development act in concert to expand their collective potential? That is the question the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (Asean) has been wrestling for decades. Judging by their leaders’ ambitious vision for cooperation, the answer may be yes.

What began as a straightforward push to reduce trade tariffs has evolved into a blueprint for a dynamic open market of 600 million consumers and a production base that can compete directly with the world’s largest economies. Once in place, the so-called Asean Economic Community (AEC) will transform Southeast Asia and its role in the global economy.

Asean’s economic potential is undoubtedly impressive. Taken together, the group’s members — Brunei, Cambodia, Indonesia, Laos, Malaysia, Myanmar, the Philippines, Singapore, Thailand, and Vietnam — would comprise the world’s seventh-largest economy. Moreover, Asean’s international trade has almost tripled over the last decade. And foreign-direct investment has been flowing into the region, with multinationals hoping to capitalise on its rapidly expanding middle class and strategic location at the intersection of China, Japan and India.

The AEC plan aims to build on this momentum by removing barriers to the movement of goods, services, capital and people throughout the region. The McKinsey Global Institute (MGI) estimates that, by implementing this integration strategy fully and capturing a larger share of global manufacturing, the Asean countries could gain US$280 to US$625 billion (RM978 billion to RM2.1 trillion) in annual gross domestic product by 2030.

Part of that growth stems from encouraging local companies to expand beyond their home markets. By making exporting more efficient and less costly — up to 20 per cent cheaper in some sectors — a range of goods and services would become attainable for millions of new consumers. This could boost consumption across Southeast Asia, leading to a circle of growth.

But Asean’s quest to become a unified market is far from complete. While average tariff rates in the original five member states (Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, Singapore, and Thailand) have been virtually zero since 2010, some barriers must still be dismantled. An MGI survey of regional businesses identified restrictions on foreign investment and ownership, inconsistent standards and regulations and inefficient customs procedures as the biggest remaining barriers to trade.

Though full integration appears unlikely by Asean’s target date next year, lately the effort has been imbued with a renewed sense of urgency. As wages in China rise, Southeast Asian economies have a window of opportunity to become the next “factories to the world”.

Of course, competing on the basis of low wages alone would be inadequate to raise living standards in the long term. Asean will also need to compete on productivity, an area in which countries like Cambodia, Indonesia and Vietnam are at a disadvantage. Excluding Singapore and Brunei, average labour productivity in Asean remains about 40 per cent lower than in China.

For Asean to become a real manufacturing powerhouse, its lower-income economies will need to focus on modernising equipment and processes and building their workforces’ skills. They must also increase and sustain investment to address glaring infrastructure gaps and bring down high logistics costs. Some critics insist that, even with such efforts, Asean members vary too widely in terms of their level of economic development to create a smoothly functioning single entity. But Asean, unlike the European Union, is not attempting to form a monetary union.

In fact, Asean’s focus on trade makes diversity an advantage, as companies seek to benefit from low-cost labour in some countries and intermediate manufacturing capabilities in others, all while gaining access to one of the world’s most sophisticated financial and logistics centres. Though member states may sometimes have to compete with one another for market share and multinational operations, their areas of specialisation would largely be complementary.

Asean’s lower-income eco-nomies have expressed concern that they will miss out on many of the benefits of deeper integration. But this does not have to be the case. Mexico, for example, has arguably enjoyed greater economic benefits from the North American Free Trade Agreement than the United States or Canada has.

Nonetheless, this uneasiness reflects a central challenge facing Asean. From its inception, the group has fundamentally been a top-down project, driven by the region’s leaders instead of its people. But, as member countries have become more democratic, solidifying public support has become increasingly important, meaning that Asean leaders must work to communicate the benefits of integration more effectively.

At the same time, Asean governments must urge businesses — many of whose leaders, according to MGI’s survey, have limited awareness of the opportunities that integration presents — to expand into neighbouring markets. Here, removing a handful of key administrative barriers could go a long way.

As it stands, restrictions on foreign investment and trade barriers continue to shield many domestic industries from competitive pressures. Now, Asean countries must decide whether to retreat into protectionism or reaffirm their commitment to a more open approach. Though the latter option would create winners and losers, it could also stimulate the region’s overall productivity growth.

As a regional grouping, Asean does not have the kind of deep institutional ties and infrastructure links that bind together the EU’s members. Nor has it built the kind of seamless supply chains that funnel massive trade flows through North America. But, if Asean can execute the vision outlined in the AEC plan, it could exceed the sum of its parts.


Sumber - New Straits Times

Thailand stems human trafficking into Brunei

Quratul-Ain Bandial
BANDAR SERI BEGAWAN

THAILAND will focus on increasing preventive measures to halt the trafficking of Thai nationals into Brunei, said the country’s outgoing ambassador.

In an interview with The Brunei Times, Apichart Phetcharatana expressed concern over the rising number of trafficking cases he has seen during his three-year tenure as ambassador.

He disclosed that a memorandum of understanding (MoU) on human trafficking between Thailand and Brunei is “70 to 80 per cent complete”, aiming to facilitate better information sharing between law enforcement agencies of the two countries.

“It will focus more on preventive measures and will be very useful in terms of raising awareness and sharing information through law enforcement – this is very crucial. The more people know about the law and regulations, the less and less cases will be coming here,” he said.

Apichart explained there have been several cases of women trafficked to Brunei for sex work, as well as other victims of forced labour.

“Some victims were working in homes or companies and were exploited by employers. The income was not according to the agreement and they worked longer hours and with less attention to their welfare.”

Once the victims are repatriated to Thailand, they would again be interviewed by authorities to retrieve intelligence on trafficking syndicates.

He added that the Royal Brunei Police Force (RBPF) has been very active in trying to promote awareness of the issue, and has approached the embassy to co-organise a briefing for the Thai community. Similar events were also organised for the Philippines and Indonesian communities recently.

According to police statistics, the RBPF investigated 183 cases of suspected human trafficking in 2013.

However, since 2004 only three cases have been prosecuted in court owing to lack of strong evidence and victims being uncooperative in providing testimony.

Several criteria must be proved to obtain a conviction — such as the use of threats, deception, abuse of power and recruitment or transport of an individual for the purpose of exploitation.

However, the Attorney General’s Chambers said it is currently reviewing the Trafficking and Smuggling of Persons Order as part of efforts to improve laws combating trafficking in persons.


Sumber - The Brunei Times

China's Ignores International Arbitration in South China Sea Dispute

Don't Be Fooled by China's Cooperation Lately. Xi Jinping Wants to Reform the International Order.

By Claire Groden

Last month, China showed its cooperative side to the international community. It struck an ambitious climate deal with the U.S. that President Xi Jinping announced alongside President Obama. It took a seat at the P5+1 talks in Vienna to negotiate a path forward for Iran’s nuclear program. And it responded to the United Nation’s call for aid to Ebola-ravaged West Africa by sending an elite unit of People’s Liberation Army troops and aid workers. “That’s global leadership, and that’s important, and that cooperation with us is more than welcome,” Secretary of State John Kerry said in early November of China’s increasing role in international crises.

But this doesn't mean China’s buying fully into the West's international order. This week, the country ignored a deadline to submit a response to a case filed by the Philippines in international court that contested Beijing’s broad territorial claims in the South China Sea. For decades, China has staked out a huge swatch of the valuable seascape, ignoring the territorial claims of Vietnam, the Philippines, Malaysia and Brunei. In March, fed up with stalled negotiations and fishing boat scuffles, the Philippines filed a 4,000-page memo to the U.N. requesting arbitration of the contested territory. Beijing had until Monday to submit a response in The Hague, and by refusing to do so it scuttled the potential for international arbitration of the conflict.

The missed deadline was not a surprise. On December 7, Beijing issued a position paper that denied the international court’s legitimacy in arbitrating the disagreement. China argued that a series of agreements dating back to 1995 bound Manila to engaging in bilateral negotiations to solve the dispute, and that finding alternative solutions—even almost 20 years later—was impermissible. At a press conference on Monday, Chinese Foreign Ministry Spokesperson Qin Gang elaborated, “The Chinese side specifies in the position paper that it will neither accept nor participate in the so-called South China Sea arbitration unilaterally initiated by the Philippines, and that the arbitral tribunal does not have jurisdiction over this case.”

China has exclusively pursued bilateral negotiations over the South China Sea because it allows Beijing to intimidate, one by one, the smaller countries with competing claims to the region. And though the other claimants have tried to present a united front via the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN), the majority of the ten-member association doesn’t have a direct stake in the territorial conflict and would rather preserve relations with China. Beijing’s refusal to participate in international arbitration parallels its history of only negotiating in situations where it has the upper hand.

Xi’s hardline stance in the South China Sea shows that China is interested in international cooperation when it serves its own interests. For example, Beijing has expressed greater interest in fighting terrorism abroad because it increasingly worries about homegrown terrorism in its restive Xinjiang province. Chinese aid to Ebola-stricken African countries was surely incentivized by massive amounts of Chinese business investments in the region. And aggressively scaling back carbon emissions falls in line with the CCP’s goals for China, anyway. Beijing hopes to transition the Chinese economy away from manufacturing to industries higher on the development chain, and air pollution has become an uncomfortable domestic political issue.

Of course, Beijing is hardly alone in pursuing international engagements with its own best interests in mind. But global actors must remember that the Chinese ideal for an international system is not the same as the current, Western-designed one. In a wide-ranging speech Xi delivered on November 29, he mentioned his desire to “reform the international system and global governance, and increase the representation and say of China and other developing countries.” Beijing’s ideal U.N. would place an even higher premium on sovereignty—which benefits a country that doesn’t think much of human rights and has enough economic clout to bully its neighbors. As friendly as Beijing has been recently to the international community, it is certainly no friend of the international order.


Sumber - The New Republic

Mega trade pacts and the fight for Asia's trade future

Fiona Chan

As christmas approaches, Singapore's trade negotiators look set to end another year without the top item on their wishlist: a resolution to the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP).

The ambitious free trade agreement (FTA), which seeks to break new ground in removing trade barriers among 12 Asia-Pacific nations, has already missed several deadlines starting from last year.

Each delay is rooted in the same reasons. The United States and Japan, the two biggest economies in the deal, are still quibbling over opening up their industries to more foreign competition.

Other perennial sticking points in the TPP talks, which began in March 2010, include how to deal with "21st century" trade issues such as intellectual property protection and state-owned firms.

But, this time, the stakes for the TPP's completion are higher.

Other mega Asia-Pacific trade pacts have started to gain momentum in recent months, propelled by major economic players that are not part of the US-led TPP - notably China.

One such parallel deal is the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP), which covers all 10 ASEAN nations plus the bloc's six FTA partners of China, India, Japan, South Korea, Australia and New Zealand.

When RCEP talks are completed by the end of next year - a commitment the 16 countries reiterated in August - it will be the world's largest FTA, although not nearly as in-depth as the TPP.

Then there is the Free Trade Area of the Asia-Pacific (FTAAP), a mammoth arrangement that was first mooted in 2004, but that China finally lifted out of limbo during last month's Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (Apec) summit in Beijing.

Making the FTAAP the centrepiece of its summit agenda, Beijing persuaded the 21 Apec leaders to commission a "strategic study" into the trade deal - a move China's President Xi Jinping said symbolised the "official launch of the process towards the FTAAP".

Rivals for the trade prize

Depending on which agreement prevails, trade in fast-growing Asia could flow in different directions, bringing with it the power to shape economic agendas in the region.

The US is well aware of the stakes. It has recently been supplanted by China as the main trading partner of many Asian countries - last year, the US bought only 14.2 per cent of Asia's merchandise exports, down from 23.7 per cent in 2000, according to Asian Development Bank data.

That may be why Washington is trying to quash Beijing's attempts at kickstarting the FTAAP and to refocus attention on the TPP, the economic cornerstone of its rebalance towards Asia.

The US reportedly pushed back on China's original draft of the Apec communique that called for a "feasibility study" into the FTAAP - which would have implied the start of negotiations.

It also managed to prevent Beijing from setting a 2025 deadline for the FTAAP. The final communique states only a meek timeframe of 2016 for the completion of the strategic study.

On its part, Beijing is pushing hard for the FTAAP, in what some say is an effort to extend its influence in the Pacific Rim and counterbalance the bigger role the US is likely to play in the region once the TPP is a done deal.

To a smaller extent, China is also seen as one of the lead drivers of the RCEP, alongside ASEAN.

While all three trade pacts will enlarge the region's economy, they involve different countries and represent varying benefits to each, which is likely to translate into different levels of motivation for them to conclude each deal.

China, Indonesia and South Korea are among those in the RCEP and FTAAP but not the TPP. The United States and Canada are in the TPP and FTAAP but not the RCEP. India is in the RCEP but not the other two.

Only seven countries are included in all three agreements: Singapore, Australia, Brunei, Japan, Malaysia, New Zealand and Vietnam.

Even then, countries like Japan and Vietnam are more likely to see immediate gains from the TPP than the RCEP, since they do not have an existing FTA with the US.

The US also stands to reap the most benefits from the TPP, since its intellectual property provisions offer the greatest perks for US companies, says Mr Jayant Menon from the Asian Development Bank Institute.

"But the region as a whole will gain the most from an agreement that includes all of the key players, such as the FTAAP."

Experts see it as unlikely that the TPP and RCEP will ever merge, given that the former holds all countries to the same ambitious standards while the latter allows special treatment for developing country members.

"The TPP can be broader and deeper in part because it's a voluntary agreement - members choose to join," says Ms Deborah Elms, executive director of the Singapore-based Asian Trade Centre.

"The RCEP countries got 'drafted' by virtue of existing agreements. They therefore have differing levels of enthusiasm for the whole exercise."

Assembling the puzzle

An alternative version of events, however, frames the spaghetti bowl of Asia-Pacific trade deals as a jigsaw puzzle, with the different trade deals eventually expanding or being combined to encompass the whole region.

In this scenario of a region-wide FTA, there are two possibilities. The first is that the TPP and the RCEP develop in parallel towards an overarching FTAAP.

If successful, the FTAAP would be by far the largest FTA in the Asia-Pacific region, covering all TPP members and the world's three largest economies of China, the US and Japan.

One oft-cited study published in May by the East-West Center, a US-based institution promoting diplomacy in the Asia-Pacific region, has estimated that the economic gains from a concluded FTAAP could reach nearly US$2 trillion (S$2.6 trillion), adding 2 per cent to the global economy.

This would be more than eight times the US$223 million boost from the TPP, and about three times the RCEP's US$644 million estimated gain.

But even if the FTAAP fails to materialise, a second region-wide FTA is possible. This would entail expanding the TPP to include other countries that have expressed some interest to join.

The addition of China, Indonesia, Korea, the Philippines and Thailand to the TPP could boost its projected gains to more than US$1.9 trillion, nearly equal the gains from the FTAAP, the East-West Center study showed.

These countries are now excluded from the TPP not due to economic rivalries, but because they are reluctant or unprepared to meet the high standards of the "21st century" pact, which aims to blaze a trail for the next generation of FTAs.

Ms Elms is among those who expect China to eventually join the TPP. "Chinese firms are increasingly in supply chains and not just as a final assembly point. The benefits for firms inside the TPP will be substantial," she says.

But Mr Menon believes the FTAAP is a more likely route than an expanded TPP.

"It is difficult to imagine conditions under which China may join the TPP, if and when it is concluded, or indeed the US coming into RCEP," he says, noting that new entrants have to accept the terms agreed to by existing members.

"It would be easier to start from scratch, and the FTAAP provides one such opportunity."

Dr Mireya Solis of the Brookings Institution adds that entry into the TPP would not grant China the same clout as spearheading its own initiative like the FTAAP.

"China would have to abide by disciplines negotiated by others and would have to make significant concessions to ensure its accession," she noted in a commentary last month.

Still, any expansion of the TPP or convergence of the existing mega trade agreements will have to overcome a few obstacles.

One is the disparity in economic development between different Asia-Pacific countries, which will make it difficult to implement a one-size-fits-all FTA. A way around this could be a step-up FTA, where the least developed economies initially achieve RCEP standards, with a view to eventually meeting FTAAP and then TPP requirements.

Another, perhaps more crucial, hurdle is the political conflict between major economies - not just between the US and China, but also among the East Asian powers of China, Japan and Korea.

That will be trickier to negotiate. But concluding each individual mega trade pact, which should continue to be the focus for now, would provide some practice and perhaps give the countries in question a preview of the benefits they can expect if they set aside their differences.

Sumber - The Straits Times

MILF takes next step to polls, seeks Comelec nod for party

COTABATO CITY—The Moro Islamic Liberation Front (MILF) has taken the next step to its foray into politics, submitting an application for accreditation at the Commission on Elections (Comelec) for a political party formed by MILF leaders and members.

MILF on Tuesday announced that it had already submitted its application for accreditation at the Comelec for the political group United Bangsamoro Justice Party (UBJP).

Sammy Al-Mansoor, MILF’s military chief, did not say when the accreditation documents had been submitted but that the group had already registered with the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), one of the requirements of the Comelec for accreditation.

Al-Mansoor, also UBJP secretary general, said the MILF-led political party’s first task is to campaign for ratification of the proposed Bangsamoro Basic Law (BBL), which would create a new autonomous system to replace the Autonomous Region in Muslim Mindanao (ARMM).

The proposed law, if passed by Congress and signed by President Aquino, would be put to a vote in a plebiscite before its provisions, especially on creating a new autonomous region, could be implemented.

The creation of a new autonomous region is the key feature of a peace agreement between MILF and the administration of President Aquino.

Al-Mansoor said UBJP would have a general assembly on Dec. 23-25 which would be open to even non-MILF members.

He said MILF is organizing the assembly “to prove that UBJP is now in business.”

UBJP, he said, would gather at least 25,000 MILF members “to educate them on the country’s electoral system.”

“If we want to sustain this political party, we need to prove that it is really existing,” he said.

MILF had announced the creation of a political party as early as March.

Mohaqher Iqbal, the MILF chief negotiator and chair of the Bangsamoro Transition Commission (BTC), said the UBJP might affiliate with a national political party.

He said the party would field candidates in the elections that would be held for positions in the future Bangsamoro region.

Al-Mansoor said MILF, through UBJP, is establishing a network of supporters, even as it expects to enlist more community-based volunteers in Basilan, Lanao Sur, Maguindanao, Sulu and Tawi-Tawi.

Simeon Datumanong, former Maguindanao representative, said in a paper submitted to members of the House committee studying the BBL that the proposed law would pass legal and constitutional scrutiny.

In his paper, Datumanong said the Constitution allows Congress to determine the kind of government—parliamentary or unitary—for the autonomous region.

“The choice of Congress to create a parliamentary form of government within the Bangsamoro is well within its plenary authority,” said Datumanong’s paper.

“It is an exercise of its absolute legislative discretion and wisdom,” it said.


Sumber - Inquirer News


MILF to disarm in January

The number of firearms that will be decommissioned by the Moro Islamic Liberation Front will be “much, much more” than what was turned over by Banda Aceh rebels in Indonesia, government chief negotiator Miriam Ferrer said on Wednesday.

“The MILF already submitted a list of all its weapons as well as combatants in a confidential letter to President Benigno Aquino III. The total number of firearms that will be decommissioned will not be like Banda Aceh with only 1,000 firearms. It will be much, much more,” Ferrer said.

Ferrer said the first batch of weapons—55 high-powered firearms and 20 crew-served weapons—will be decommissioned in January.

The MILF also offered to decommission 150 combatants during the symbolic turnover ceremony.

“The decommissioning of the first 150 combatants was a proposal from the MILF. Under the agreement that we signed, the MILF is only required to turnover weapons in the first batch of decommissioning,” Ferrer said.

Ferrer could not yet give a definite date for the ceremony, but said it will be after the visit of Pope Francis in January.

Presidential peace adviser Teresita Deles, for her part, said the government and the MILF are “not quibbling” over numbers in so far as the decommissioning process is concerned.

“Numbers do not matter. What we want is to be able to give the opportunity to as many as possible to start afresh as civilians,” Deles said.

Ferrer said six acknowledged MILF camps will also be turned into productive civilian communities with intervention from various government agencies, led by the Department of Agriculture.

“We will take a look at how to improve the socio-economic conditions in the areas surrounding the MILF base camps,” she said.

“The interventions will be in the form of delivery of quick-impact projects such as farm implements, fishing boats, seedlings, and livestock, among others, to pump prime the livelihood of the communities,” Ferrer added.

Deles, for her part, remained optimistic that the proposed Bangsamoro Basic Law will be enacted  by Congress within the first quarter of 2015 to ensure that a plebiscite is held by the middle of next year.

“When you’ve gotten to where we’ve gotten, your frame of mind changes. You just want to see this through to the end,” Deles said.


Sumber - Manila Standard Today

Study says countries lost $1 trillion to corruption in 2012

Brunei ranks 21st by largest average annual illicit outflows 2003 - 2102.

Download full report - Illicit Financial Flows from Developing Countries: 2003-2012

A global anti-corruption group said Monday that nearly $1 trillion was illicitly drained from developing countries in 2012, representing a record level of corruption, money laundering and false trade documentation.

The Washington-based group Global Financial Integrity said illicit financial flows around the world grew at 9.4 percent a year in the decade to 2012, around double the pace of economic growth, draining funds especially from impoverished countries.

The largest outflows came from giant, still poorly-regulated economies like Brazil, China, India and Russia, GFI's new report says.

Money illicitly streamed out of China at a rate of about $125 billion annually over that period, for instance.

But also in the top 10 country sources of illegal capital outflows are a number of dynamic middle-sized economies: Malaysia, Mexico, Saudi Arabia and Thailand.

Mexico is third on the list of largest outflows at an average $54 billion a year.

In total, the report put the total illegal capital movements from developing and emerging economies in 2012 at $991.2 billion, greater than the combined sum of incoming foreign investment and foreign aid in those countries.

"Emerging and developing countries hemorrhaged a trillion dollars from their economies in 2012 that could have been invested in local businesses, healthcare, education, or infrastructure," said the study's co-author, economist Joseph Spanjers.

"This is a trillion dollars that could have contributed to inclusive economic growth, legitimate private-sector job creation and sound public budgets."

Over a decade, the total was $6.6 trillion, the equivalent of nearly 4 percent of the entire global economy. In terms of the relative size of the impact, the countries most hurt by the flows were in the Middle East and North Africa and in Sub-Saharan Africa.

The main way the money flows out of the countries is misinvoicing in trade transactions, which can allow exporters and imports to keep money out of the country.

GFI said individual countries and the United Nations need to focus on cutting down such flows to fight poverty and boost growth.

"It is simply impossible to achieve sustainable global development unless world leaders agree to address this issue head-on," said GFI president Raymond Baker.

"That's why it is essential for the United Nations to include a specific target next year to halve all trade-related illicit flows by 2030 as part of post-2015 Sustainable Development Agenda."

The top 10 developing countries for illicit capital outflows in 2012:

China....................................... US$249.57 billion
Russia...................................... US$122.86 billion
India....................................... US$94.76 billion
Mexico...................................... US$59.66 billion
Malaysia ................................... US$48.93 billion
Saudi Arabia............................... US$46.53 billion
Thailand.................................... US$35.56 billion
Brazil...................................... US$33.93 billion
South Africa...................................... US$29.13 billion
Costa Rica................................... US$21.55 billion


Sumber - Yahoo Finance UK